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An Asteroid discovered on June 10, 2004 by David Tholen and Fabrizio Bernardi of the University of Hawaii Asteroid Society,  is  hurtling towards Earth with an impact date of June 13, 2029 (a Friday). 

The asteroid is 400 meters wide (1/4 mile) making it bigger than the one that hit Arizona and bigger than the asteroid striking Siberia in 1908 (the Siberian asteroid was  50 meters across and equivalent to 800 Hiroshima atom bombs).  The damage from those asteroids is evident from the huge crater in Arizona and the destruction of thousands of miles of forests in Siberia. 

According to models used by the Russian Academy of Sciences, the impact of a 500 meter asteroid traveling at a speed of 10-20 kilometers per second, impacting in the  the ocean would cause a circular wave 200 meters high.  An asteroid 10 kilometers in diameter would create a tsunami 4 kilometers high which would be about 400 meters high as it hit land. 

According to scientists, 2004 MN4 will do considerable localized or regional damage if it impacts Earth.  On the other hand, it will not cause global damage or wipe out all life on Earth. The worst scenario is that it will have the potential to destroy a small country. (Morocco?)  

The odds of 2004 MN4 hitting us are 1 in 40.  For the optimists thats a 97.8% chance it will miss us .For the pessimists, the asteroid has another chance of impacting us in 2036.

So, what are you going to do?  Quit your job and live the rest of your life as a  beach comber?   Bet that your house is ground zero for an asteroid hit and take out a 40 or 50 year mortgage?   Ring the church bell and yell that the sky is falling like Chicken Little?

 

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posted by AudreyB on Tuesday, November 21, 2006 at 12:59 PM
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