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By Scott Lucas

Irrespective of affiliation, talent, or decade, the Blaze rarely win. They’re the St. Louis Browns of minor-league baseball, 378 games under .500 since their inaugural season in 1941. From 1993-2008, following an atypical five-year stretch of dominance, the Blaze never finished more than two games over .500 and posted an average record of 61-79. Even under a playoff system that resembles a college basketball conference tournament, Bakersfield hasn’t played beyond the regular season since 2001.

This year began no differently. Despite a prospect-laden roster, the Blaze lost eight of 11 to begin the season and were 51-60 on August 6th. Then, minus its most famous names, Bakersfield closed the year on a 24-5 run. They also wrested home-field advantage from fellow wild-card Modesto in the season’s waning days. The Nuts will host the Blaze today, followed by one or two games in Bakersfield.

Season series: Bakersfield won 15-14 (8-4 at home, 7-10 at Modesto)

Modesto plays at John Thurman Field, a pitcher-friendly locale ferociously tough on power hitters. Its 391’ left-center alley is 37 feet beyond the deepest part of Bakersfield’s Sam Lynn Ballpark, and a 15’-high wall rings the outfield. Modesto and its opponents hit only 49 homers at John Thurman versus 122 on the road. Bakersfield is one of the few teams that didn’t struggle there. The Blaze averaged 5.1 runs per game in Modesto compared to 3.7 for other teams.

Though Sam Lynn does promote homers, courtesy of a miniscule 354 feet to dead-center field, it actually plays fairly neutral overall. Blaze pitchers posted a 3.97 ERA there and limited Modesto to a reasonable 4.8 runs per game.

Bakersfield Blaze:
Record: 75-65
Last 30 games: 24-6 (including 5-2 against Modesto)

Typical Lineup:
C Doug Hogan / Jose Felix
1B Ian Gac
2B Matt Lawson
3B Tommy Mendonca
SS Davis Stoneburner
LF Mike Bianucci
CF David Paisano
RF Joey Butler
DH Mauro Gomez

Bench:
IF Jake Kaase, UT Erik Morrison, OF Tim Rodriguez

Probable starters:
Kennil Gomez, Tanner Roark, and (if needed) Richard Bleier

Relievers:
Evan Reed, Ryan Falcon, Michael Main, Adalberto Flores, Glenn Swanson, Dustin Brader, Justin Miller

At the plate, the Blaze are powerful, slow, and impatient. They rank second of ten teams in doubles and homers, dead last in walks and on-base percentage, and next-to-last in strikeouts. Bakersfield attempted 98 stolen bases, 31 fewer than any other team and 106 fewer than Modesto. Davis Stoneburner leads the active roster with nine successes.

Ably representing the Blaze are Mauro Gomez (.285/.333/.525) and Ian Gac (.238/.295/.468), who shared first base duties and combined for 50 homers and 269 strikeouts. OF Mike Bianucci (.232/.289/.510) compiled the team’s fourth-highest homer total with 15 in barely one-third of a season, but his batting eye was occluded (14 walks, 69 strikeouts). OF Joey Butler (.280/.343/.416, 12 homers, 146 SO) and 2B Matt Lawson (.293/.350/.418, 10 homers, 127 SO) counteracted their whiffing with some ability to draw walks and HBPs. Recently promoted all-or-nothing slugger 3B Tommy Mendonca was born to play on this team. I’ve listed Erik Morrison and Jake Kaase on the bench, but they played often down the stretch, and seeing one or both in a starting lineup wouldn’t surprise.

Stupendous bullpen work saved the Blaze from total collapse early in the season. It’s still a strength despite the loss of two of its best practitioners, Zach Phillips and Corey Young. College reliever-turned-starter-turned-reliever Evan Reed fanned 65 in 48.2 innings and saved 25 games. Lefty slo-mo specialist Ryan Falcon led the team with 66 relief innings and a 2.44 ERA. Adalberto Flores (3.40 ERA) matched Reed’s 31% strikeout rate. Finally, a rejuvenated Michael Main tossed seven scoreless innings between Bakersfield and rookie league.

Since early August, the rotation has been solid after nearly capsizing the team with 12 “disaster starts” (runs allowed >= innings pitched) in 13 games. Game 1 starter Kennil Gomez led the league in walks (67) and hit batters (21) but pitched effectively in his last six appearances (2.53 ERA, 28 SO in 32 IP). Better still was probable Game 2 starter Tanner Roark, who punched out 51 in 52.2 innings as a starter with a 2.91 ERA. Control freak Richard Bleier (4.51 ERA) will likely start Game 3 if needed. Bleier (4.51) is a formidable inning-eater but also prone to the big inning. In a win-or-die setting, manager Steve Buechele will have to employ a shorter leash.

Defensively, the Blaze are error-prone but still pretty good at turning batted balls into outs. Both Doug Hogan and Jose Felix are among the worst in the league at gunning down basestealers, and Modesto loves to run.

Modesto Nuts:
Record: 75-65
Last 30 games: 15-15

Modesto hit only 88 homers compared to Bakersfield’s 144 and scored 26 fewer runs, but their offense is similar after adjusting for home climate. The Nuts have five hitters – OFs Scott Beerer, Charles Blackmon and Jay Cox, 2B Jason Von Kooten, and 1B Matt Repec – with higher batting averages than Bakersfield team leader Matt Lawson (.293). Conversely, the bottom third of its order is an out factory.

The best human-interest story of the first round belongs to Beerer. The 27-year-old Texas A&M alum was drafted 47th overall by Colorado in 2003, but after four injury-plagued seasons on the mound, the former two-way player wanted to become a hitter. The Rockies refused, and he didn’t play in affiliated baseball for two years. Colorado eventually accepted Beerer back as an outfielder, and he’s batted .385/.443/.594 between short-season Tri-City and Modesto.

Modesto hasn’t announced its rotation. Lefty Christian Friedrich (2.54 ERA) is the best starter on either team. In three August outings against the Blaze, he pitched 17.2 innings, allowed just four earned runs, and struck out 24. Based on results, the other starters (as needed) should be righties Cory Riordan (3.93 ERA in a league-high 169.2 IP) and Bruce Billings (4.17 ERA, 122 SO in 99 IP). The Nuts have an outstanding closer in Craig Baker (36 saves, 2.30 ERA, 75 SO in 62 IP) but less bullpen depth.

Modesto is superior to Bakersfield in terms of errors, turning batted balls into outs and cutting down basestealers. However, as mentioned, the Blaze don’t run much.