Real Name: Tom Webster Gender: male Member Since: August 14, 2006 Last Signed In: May 10, 2008 Profile Views: 10725 Blog Views: 11656 Bush Announces The End of the Surge McCain Breaks His Own Laws McCain's Idea of Love Unofficial "Bloggers' Brunch" at Dagny's Saturday Republican State Parties in Disarray Publican's Political Genius I did not have sexual relations with that woman! Amazing Obama Video Nevada Caucus and South Carolina Primary Michigan Primary Today August 06 September 06 October 06 November 06 December 06 January 07 February 07 March 07 April 07 May 07 June 07 July 07 August 07 September 07 October 07 November 07 December 07 January 08 February 08 March 08 April 08 May 08 
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Nevada Caucus and South Carolina Primary
Today is the first multi-state contest of the primary election season with contests in Nevada and South Carolina. While Nevada is for both parties today, South Carolina is Republican only, with the Democratic contest a week from today. So what do the tea leaves say today?
Democrats have an interesting race set up in Nevada with party caucus weighting and caucus locations playing a huge role. Obama managed to get the endorsement of the culinary workers union and they are allowed to caucus right on the strip where they work and their votes actually count more than regular caucus goers. Definitely an advantage to Obama. Clinton has also shot herself in the foot complaining about the house rules. Nevada goes to Obama over Clinton by 5. Why not more? John Edwards makes a strong showing with the unions and he's got die hard, knowledgeable caucus people. I'll stick my neck out and say Edwards edges out Clinton one more time. On the Republican side in Nevada, I think Huckabee will do better than expected based on his caucus performance in Iowa, but not well enough to win. Caucusing hurts McCain and helps Romney since you won't have a lot of independents. Based on all that, I think Romney takes it by about 5 over McCain. My "stick your neck out" prediction is putting Ron Paul in 3rd. Last contest of the day is the South Carolina Primary. Since it's Republican only, indies stay home and McCain loses here. I'll put Romney and Huckabee near a dead heat with Romney pulling it off by a hair. I think Thompson pulls up even with McCain and no one will care. He'll probably be out before Super Tuesday. What do your tea leaves say? 36 comments from 7 users
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posted by
TomW
on Jan 19, 2008 at 09:46 AM
Out of here for a bit but I'll be in and out later today.
posted by
randomfactor
on Jan 19, 2008 at 09:50 AM
I like your predictions but think it'll be closer in Nevada. Although I'd dearly love to see a Ron Paul upset in the Silver State, shake the nuts up a bit.
posted by
randomfactor
on Jan 19, 2008 at 09:53 AM
Gee, will *NO ONE* speak up for "things are pretty good as they are"? posted by
drilnliftcrude
on Jan 19, 2008 at 10:09 AM
PMSNBC is already calling Nevada for Romney. Good.
posted by
randomfactor
on Jan 19, 2008 at 10:13 AM
I agree. Let the fundies tear the heathen apart. Will serve them right.
posted by
montfred
on Jan 19, 2008 at 10:35 AM
Agree with your Nevada Democrats Caucus, the democrats don't read the Californian, so HC falls hard in NV. posted by
randomfactor
on Jan 19, 2008 at 10:44 AM
We don't read the Californian 'cuz they got rid of Doonesbury. I keep telling them, bring it back as a token and I'll re-subscribe just to keep up with their right-wing spin.
posted by
drilnliftcrude
on Jan 19, 2008 at 11:09 AM
Gee RF, boycotting the Californian plus Jon Stewarts joke writers striking, must be tough on you trying to keep up with your news. BTW, your continued visits to TBC website doesn't help your subscription boycott. Kinda like a striking Albertson's employee continuing to buy groceries there.
posted by
randomfactor
on Jan 19, 2008 at 11:23 AM
Nah. I get all of it I need off the internets, complete with interlinks to relevant additional information. In many cases I get it a day or two ahead of the standard media. . And of course, let's not forget Olbermann (blest be his name). . Of course it helps my TBC boycott. Newspaper advertising rates are not much supported by their web presence, they are based upon the number of regular, paid subscriptions. In addition, they don't get my 50 cents newsstand contributions either. posted by
TomW
on Jan 19, 2008 at 12:23 PM
Looks like God brought snow to the northern, conservative part of South Carolina. I guess God is supporting McCain over Huckabee on this one.
posted by
randomfactor
on Jan 19, 2008 at 12:29 PM
Never underestimate the power of fried squirrel, Tom.
posted by
adampayne
on Jan 19, 2008 at 12:46 PM
I think the full court press in Nevada from both the Clinton and Obama camps means they finish pretty close in the state. I am certainly rooting for Edwards to finish at least second, but I don't think it will happen. Mainstream media has all but buried John Edwards campaign. The same thing can be said of Ron Paul's campaign, which is viewed as a bad joke by the other carefully hand picked Republican nominees and mainstream media who love to ridicule someone simply speaking the truth about money and foreign policy blunders. The fact that sizable percentages of voters are with both Edwards and Paul, from both sides of the spectrum, indicates a growing contempt for the status quo by left and right alike. It will be interesting to see if any compromises can be reached that will satisfy the growing segment of people fed up the current corporate political framework.I think no Republican currently running has a shot at winning this fall. posted by
TomW
on Jan 19, 2008 at 01:13 PM
Adam, Paul reminds me more of Kucinich actually. Both represent a big departure from the current state of affairs that mostly benefits big money. They are both ridiculed though they each have a strong base. Edwards killed himself by advocating public financing which means no big paydays for the media.
posted by
TomW
on Jan 19, 2008 at 01:15 PM
RF, the squirrel eating bit seemed like such an obvious pander but he couldn't pull it off because of his background. He's talking about being in a college dorm and cooking squirrel in a popcorn popper. How big a demographic is that?
posted by
TomW
on Jan 19, 2008 at 01:28 PM
CNN is calling Nevada for Clinton by 5. Edwards only pulled 5% which is disappointing and frankly a bit shocking.
posted by
montfred
on Jan 19, 2008 at 01:30 PM
HC is winning BIG in Nevada, my man is in the single digits (5%)...
posted by
ChicoEsquela
on Jan 19, 2008 at 02:54 PM
moonbats over my hammy this blog is like a socialist far leftist feeding frenzy except they "self-chum" posted by
randomfactor
on Jan 19, 2008 at 03:31 PM
Tom, I don't think that's the reason the media has ignored Edwards. He's threatening to the big-corporation owners of the media, who've had the rails greased for them in recent years. . But I'm also disappointed in the Nevada results (though it's a small state.) If Obama offered him the VP slot I'd jump to that campaign in an instant. No chance that Clinton will do that. I expect she'll go for Clark as her VP if she gets that far. posted by
adampayne
on Jan 19, 2008 at 03:43 PM
I am perplexed about the polling this year, which indicated a tight race in Nevada for all three Democratic candidates, and which predicted a substantial victory for Obama in New Hampshire a little more than a week ago. Coming from a background where marketing and polling are usually very accurate in being able to forecast with unerring accuracy, I am troubled by the recurring gap between polls and reality today. Given the sophistication of models and pollsters today, there is something very wrong this year. There was no reason to expect an Edwards victory, but to have received less than 4% in the Nevada caucuses after all bets were on a tight race makes me wonder what is going on. I smell fix.I am now, more than ever, resigned to the fact that the only thing that matters in American politics is money. The actual race was over after the first wave of fund raising determined who had the most corporate money to spend for each party. Voices and endorsements from individuals don't matter at all unless the name comes with millions of dollars attached to a campaign fund. The race is now very easy to predict. It will be Mitt Romney versus Hillary Clinton in November. Votes do not matter because touch screen voting makes a mockery of actual votes cast and counted. It is more important that the conglomerates which provide the coverage of the endless election coverage be given instant counts of meaningless and trail-less numbers that can be instantly passed on to viewers who have learned to just accept whatever government is picked for them. People are too busy looking for a new credit source or a third income to really argue and haggle over matters where they have no control. You won't need to wait for the results on "Super Tuesday", because the results are already in. Romney and Clinton won. Whoopee for democracy. What did it actually ever do for the Greeks anyway? posted by
sagefever
on Jan 19, 2008 at 03:52 PM
Depressing.
posted by
drilnliftcrude
on Jan 19, 2008 at 05:59 PM
Cheer up Dems. Hillarinsky may have won the caucus, but Sen. Hussein won more delegates. And next week is South Carolina where the black vote will go almost entirely against the white Hillary.
posted by
randomfactor
on Jan 19, 2008 at 06:31 PM
We'll see, Dril. After all, her husband was the first black president, after all.
posted by
TomW
on Jan 19, 2008 at 08:18 PM
Cheer up dril. Here's a right-wing joke for you:Why does John McCain say "my friends" so often? Because "comrades" would be too obvious. posted by
ChicoEsquela
on Jan 19, 2008 at 08:27 PM
tovarich would be too obvious to you
posted by
randomfactor
on Jan 19, 2008 at 08:40 PM
A *SECOND* remake of "The Manchurian Candidate?" Will Hollywood *NEVER* learn? posted by
TomW
on Jan 19, 2008 at 08:51 PM
Chico, do you ever add anything? I know you can't find someone to support, but stand for something at least instead of just attacking.
posted by
ChicoEsquela
on Jan 19, 2008 at 08:55 PM
Hillary is white? I didn't know that I thought her coloration was somewhere in the vicinity of "roots de pancake makeup" Isn't that an ethnicity in and of itself? And when her husband is widely and profusely known as the "first black POTUS" I wouldn't be so quick to categorize her as "white" posted by
ChicoEsquela
on Jan 19, 2008 at 08:57 PM
i've already said who I support I just don't need a socialist feeding frenzy to reinforce it posted by
ChicoEsquela
on Jan 19, 2008 at 09:00 PM
and TomW "adding anything" is by your playbook fortunately for you the literary lightweights at TBC agree with you must be nice smooth slimy socialistic sledding statist sybarite posted by
randomfactor
on Jan 19, 2008 at 09:17 PM
Chico, you must know there are no socialists among the top, oh, dozen or so Democratic Party candidates. Heck, there are damned few Democrats in it. The closest one scares the corporate media so much they've already cut him out of the top three. . By European standards, this country's Democratic Party is extremely right-wing. Oh, and that word is closer to "tovarishch," despite the Claudette Colbert film. Russian has a consonant something like the middle letters of "fresh chex." Ma eto nyichyievo. posted by
randomfactor
on Jan 19, 2008 at 09:18 PM
Interesting addendum is that Obama may wind up with more delegates from Nevada when everything is worked out. Something like how the popular-vote loser won the Presidency in 2000 by a single vote. . The same arcane rules diminished Edwards' final tally, although he was probably supported initially by around ten percent who were forced to settle on their second choice. Although ten percent isn't in bragging territory either. posted by
ChicoEsquela
on Jan 19, 2008 at 09:31 PM
I know RF, I was "Berlitz Immersed" when I got out of service and finished college. For some reason. I was thinking of Charles Bronson (Danny the Tunnel King) when I typed that, actually. Yes, Edwards may be the closest of the "Trio" to a classical socialist but the other two aren't pikers in that regard. posted by
ChicoEsquela
on Jan 19, 2008 at 09:34 PM
and RF, the most conservative free market capitalists I worked with in Europe would be flaming socialists here. I know form where you speak posted by
ChicoEsquela
on Jan 19, 2008 at 09:37 PM
RF, at one point I thought my Russian would be useful. By the time I worked into a position where it might have been I was sent to Africa. Where they spoke French. I then was immersed in French before being posted to South America And it wasn't even the Bush Administartion! posted by
randomfactor
on Jan 19, 2008 at 09:52 PM
I sadly had to discontinue my Russian studies early when Real Life intervened with a vengeance. Always was fascinated by the language because it was the only non-English-alphabet one I felt I could handle. Someday when the Lotto numbers align correctly, perhaps. I've already got an invite to Belarus.
posted by
ChicoEsquela
on Jan 19, 2008 at 10:36 PM
The Cyrillic alphabet was the only one I really ever learned that wasn't based on ABC, etc. I have buds from VN that learned Mandarin as it is spoken by the "iron triangle" peoples (actually all of SEA) more than any other language (as a commonality) as opposed to the bastardization by the french of the vietnamese language to make a tonal language boiled down to a 26 letter alphabet! If you speak Mandarin Chinese you will have a better chance of being able to communicate with someone in Laos, Cambodia, or even Burma than any other language. They can send me emails to this day with phonetic mandarin and I can speak them to VN peoples that I know and they know what they are saying! To me that is amazing! I knew enough vietnamese to interrogate someone - ladai, cam ong u lumh, lu dahn, didi mau, mot, hai, bom. lam, nam, sau, tam, tin. mui, caca dau, etc. But the real co. linguists could make those dudes really cough up. I suppose there's a lesson there too. go to belarus... you'll have a ball.....just gird your loins (liver) for the wodka!
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