Benjamin Franklin: The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.
posted by Nateov on Jan 10, 2007 at 07:13 PM

You forgot that "Bush" is an acronym for Bu _ _ SH _ _ !  That is what his speech is.  But, also remember (or be aware of) the fact that every years we have had additional troops sent for the "Spring Offensive".  This happens mostly in Afghanistan (Operation Enduring Freedom) and somewhat in Iraq (Operation Iraqi Freedumb).

Interesting that we went to Iraq due to WMD.  (Operation Desert _ _ _ _ )  Then, after extensive searching it was changed to Operation Iraq Freedom).  Now it is getting another new name. Still the same incompetent "Commander-In-Chief".

posted by blognroll on Jan 10, 2007 at 10:47 PM

Hello everybody.  It seems like conservatives are too afraid and intimidated to make comments under this blog, so, I'll stick my neck out, in the interest of preventing any movement in the direction of liberal groupthink.  That being said, I'm not really feeling very assertive, and must acknowledge that the situation in Iraq is a collosal mess. 

I've been listening to the talking heads at Fox news and CNN reporting that  Reid, Pelosi and other key democrats who now stand in fierce opposition to the surge proposed by the President, have all been on record supporting such a surge at one point in the not-to-distant past.  Have any of you done a fact-check on this proclamation?   Is this a bold-faced lie, or did these key democrats flip flop on the issue, as it is being repeatedly asserted by folks on the right?

posted by dusty1215 on Jan 10, 2007 at 11:01 PM
The Presidents body language was so bad, his voice wasn't assured. MSNBC showed 3 older "addresses" about Iraq and he was totally different this time around. We have been slowly increasing the troops about 5k at a time I think for over a year. This really isn't new anyway you look at it on the level of troop increases.

He said "again" he was going to hold the Iraqi government to benchmarks before he does anything, which is probably a good idea since he can't really pull that many troops out of his behind any time soon.

Then I heard the month of November mentioned and I lost all hope that anything was going to change this year. 

Who cares what the dem's believe? They don't have the power of making foreign policy Bush does. They just fund it. Bush has squirrled away enough money to pay for whatever he wants to do for quite awhile. Barney Frank said it the other night. If they maintain the status quo on financing..Bush can do as he has always done..borrow money to pay for this war. Speaking of money..the support structure for 20k in troops isn't a drop in the bucket. Arms, tanks, food, housing..its not a lot of people, but its a good amount of money my dear taxpayers...and its not budgeted for..none of the war has been so far. Its been funded by emergency bills and amendments.
posted by blognroll on Jan 10, 2007 at 11:07 PM
"The Presidents body language was so bad, his voice wasn't assured."  So much for the hypothesis that Bush is arrogant.  Arrogant folks sound "assured" whether or not they have anything of substance to offer. 
posted by TomW on Jan 11, 2007 at 12:44 AM

Doc, I don't think conservatives are afraid to post here.  I just think there's not a lot to say.  Is there anyone out there who thinks 40,000 more boots on the ground is going to do the trick?  Bush finally seems to have gotten to the point where liberals were two or three years ago.  He's now lost his the rabid part of his base with his speech tonight and acknowledged that more soldiers are going to die and that at this point, there is never going to be a parade, no battleship ceremony, no moment at the end of the game where the big boss is killed, we get the girl and the credits roll.

This is all bad from here on out, as his speech acknowledged.  Now the question is: can we put things together for enough time to get out?

posted by mattloch on Jan 11, 2007 at 08:19 AM
BLT, the Dems aren't "flip-flopping", they aren't "lying", they're learning from their mistakes. Remember the definition of insanity: "doing the same thing over and over again, and expecting different results."
posted by ProgressivePete2 on Jan 11, 2007 at 09:15 AM
BLT, you're right about his body language. He wasn't being arrogant at all. He looked very humbled and seemed to me to finally admit to the world that he and his administration screwed this up. While I can't say that I think this "new course" is the right thing to do, at least he's decided to change the way things are going. I liked some of what I heard (yeah, I watched part of it), but not all of it. I was suprised to tell you the truth. I think even though it was obvious that he was simply reading his speech, that it was one of his better ones. Maybe because he finally showed a bit of humility. Admiting you made a mistake is the first step towards fixing it. Now lets see if he follows through with all the things he mentioned or whether it was just a bunch of hot air.

If some conservatives are afraid to post here, that's their problem. I'll admit that we tend to pick on some people, but generally it's only the ones that come here to spew BS and insult us or liberals in general rather than voice their opinion. Once they get past that they don't get picked on anymore. It's really that simple. I actually welcome other points of view, but not if they are full of insulting remarks. I still can't figure out why some conservatives feel like that's how they should act.
posted by randomfactor on Jan 11, 2007 at 09:52 AM

BLT, those who assert have the burden of proof.  That said, I think you can "cherry-pick" statements from each politician that there weren't enough troops sent in the first place, or even that more *SHOULD HAVE BEEN SENT*,  but that's not the same as supporting a temporary escalation like this one.  Because it *MUST* be temporary, we can't sustain it. 

.

Saying more should have been sent, in this context, is something like saying "well, if you *WANT* to burn your house down, I don't think you've splashed enough gasoline around yet..."

.

This is a delaying tactic.  Two or three more Friedman Units from now, this all becomes someone else's problem.  That's all Bush is after now.

 

 

posted by blognroll on Jan 11, 2007 at 11:03 AM

Repeating oneself is probably not much different than doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results, but I believe I've already said similar words below another post here:  A radically new strategy, especially in a time in which there doesn't seem to be a light at the end of the tunnel, may seem "sexy," but most of the time, simply slightly tweaking an existing plan, to make it more likely to succeed, is the best option we are left with. 

As I also mentioned before, though it's tempting, abruptly pulling out of a war we probably shouldn't have gotten into in the first place, will only leave the Iraqis in a dangerously vulnerable state.  It's not an option, just a convenient piece of territory upon which politicians are engaging in political posturing. 

posted by mattloch on Jan 11, 2007 at 11:49 AM
BLT, without a radical reworking of our civilian, political, and military strategy in Iraq, we are stuck with a "dangerously vulnerable state" in Iraq. We can "win" in Iraq, but it'll take a hell of a lot more than 21,500 more troops. We will need to reinstitute the draft to send in roughly a half-million soldiers, we'll have to undo everything the American civilian administrators did in Iraq since the invasion, we'll have to spend at least another trillion dollars, and we'll have to agree to at least another decade of sacrifice and loss. I've never said we can't "win" in Iraq, only that this Administration has never had a plan to "win" in Iraq, and will never do what it will take. Anything short of that is simply pissing away money and lives that we simply can't afford to lose. Simply "tweaking" a losing plan will still result in a losing plan. We aren't that close to "victory" in Iraq where a small change will tip the scales. We've lost Iraq, spectacularly. Unless we have agree to a radically different plan, the question is simply how much more do we feel like losing before we finally get out.
posted by blognroll on Jan 11, 2007 at 01:50 PM
Your radical plan is better than some that I've heard, but it will never sell with either democrats (with the exception of one obvious senator) or republicans.  It will never sell with the American people.  Bush's plan may be too little, too late, but if those elements which are outside of our direct control (involving some of the poltical realities that exist in the region) go our way, there is a chance, a least a hope in hell, that Bush's plan will work. 
posted by mattloch on Jan 11, 2007 at 02:39 PM
And that's the problem BLT. This war was never fought to win, because that war never would have been approved either by the Congress or the public. By saying that the public has no stomach for it now, to say that the public wants a quick victory, to say that the public doesn't want to make the necessary sacrifices, is only admitting that this war was never intended to be won by the neo-cons that planned it in the first place. To place the blame on "the anti-war groups", on "the Democrats", on "the media", on "the American public" is only blaming the victims of the crime, instead of the people who planned and executed the crime: the Administration, the "chickenhawks", the neo-conservative wing of the Republican party. This war was doomed to failure from the start. To say that the Democrats are somehow political opportunists now is to ignore six years of opportunism by the Administration and their supporters in the Congress and the media. To continue to put faith into someone who has at every turn exploited, abused, and failed to live up to that faith in the past is to continue to enable the addict. You wouldn't tell an alcoholic to drink more to help them survive a drunk driving accident. You wouldn't suggest a meth addict to take more to make them "sick" of taking drugs. You shouldn't continue to give a politician your trust if they've proven themselves incapable of doing their job in a competent and complete manner, and insist on continuing the job in a way that has brought nothing but failure in the past.
posted by blognroll on Jan 11, 2007 at 03:23 PM

What is the alternative but to trust the president's plan?  Like I just said under another blog post, the United States was the mid-wife that helped deliver the fragile democracy in Iraq.  We can't just abandon that weak, sickly "child," now, can we?   And it's far too late to "abort" that "child."  It would bring a whole new meaning to term, "late-term abortion."  The votes are not there, and the public support for a draft is not there.  Try to convince the American people and the government that a draft is a good idea.  If you can do it, more power to you.

You seem to be suggesting that a perpetual war is a neocon's dream.  But how is it in the best interest of the present administration to sit in sinking sand?  Do you think that not winning will win them votes?  What do they possibly have to gain by never making any progress in this war? 

posted by randomfactor on Jan 11, 2007 at 03:28 PM

The alternative:  Get him the hell out of the loop!  Bush *IS* the problem at this point.  I fear he *IS* planning to make the situation so much worse in the near future (attacking Iran) that a draft will be inevitable. 

.

It's *NOT* too late to get out.  There are valid reasons for performing "late-term abortions," and those reasons all boil down to one:  the alternative is worse.

.

I've got a ten-step-or-so program for Iraq, with the first four steps up to the Shrub.  Step #4 is Bush's resignation.  (He's already accomplished Step #1.)

posted by TomW on Jan 11, 2007 at 03:28 PM
And as I said in response on another blog, we are the midwife of civil war.  We planted the seed, nurtured it and are raising it into a regional conflict.  This was not our intent, but it is the reality.
posted by mattloch on Jan 11, 2007 at 03:30 PM
BLT, you're either playing to win, or you should get out. If you have a losing hand, you don't continue to put money into the pot. What I outlined is the only way to "win" in Iraq. Anything else is just a question of how quickly or badly we're prepared to lose.
posted by randomfactor on Jan 11, 2007 at 03:33 PM
That's why the escalation Shrub announced last night is "Operation Double-or-Nothing."  Bush has already lost the vacation fund and the college money.  He's trying to mortgage the house now...
posted by randomfactor on Jan 11, 2007 at 03:35 PM

By the way, special comment tonight on Keith Olbermann's show...

posted by blognroll on Jan 11, 2007 at 03:37 PM

I respectfully disagree.  The midwife of civil war is hatred between rivaling factions in the region, Tom.  I'm not on board with the "Blame America First," policy. Furthermore, the seeds of civil war in the region were actually planted hundreds, no, actually thousands of years ago.  We did not plant the seeds, and we did not nurture the seeds.   We tried, so far, without much success, to crush the seeds that grew the virulent weeds, and to plant a garden of beautiful flowers.  Random, when Bush is gone, and it won't be too long, you are in for a big surprise.  You'll find that the world will continue to have more than its share of problems, and eventually you will find another conservative to blame. 

Mattloch, for your plan to work, it has to have support.  Without support, no plan will work.  Furthermore, conventional military wisdom suggests that one soldier is all that is needed for 50 foes.  With the additional forces, that ratio will be met.  If the soldiers are used wisely, and if those variables that may not be within our direct control work in our favor, we may succeed this time around. 

 

posted by randomfactor on Jan 11, 2007 at 03:39 PM

BLT, what kept civil war from popping up about five years ago in Iraq?  Surely something changed between then and now.    What was it?

.

When Bush is gone, it won't be too soon. 

posted by TomW on Jan 11, 2007 at 03:43 PM
Doc, I'm not on board with the blame America first attitude that I see here.  People seem to think that the war is failing because we didn't clap hard enough.  Rather than take responsibility and actually try to do something that doesn't make the situation worse, the President and his supporters want to blame America for not wishing hard enough that his flawed policy might work.
posted by blognroll on Jan 11, 2007 at 03:50 PM
Random, we stirred up a hornets' nest, but the hornets are the ones that produce the sting.  Tom, I'm not asking anybody to clap, or blaming anybody for not clapping.  But a unified nation, and a unified free world could go a long way towards making this a more successful mission.   I don't demand that everybody agree with the president, but I do wish that those who complained the loudest weren't also the ones who had nothing of substance to offer as an alternative. 
posted by TomW on Jan 11, 2007 at 04:24 PM
Here's the problem, Doc.  Lots of alternatives have been offered and rejected out of hand.  Lemme try this analogy for you:

Bush wanted to build a house.  He drew up a rough sketch of what it should look like and where he wanted it.  But there was another house there already.  People suggested he buy that house or find another location, but he instead just went and bulldozed the one that was there.  Others said that it was going to be hard since the soil wasn't very solid, but he didn't listen.  So then he goes in and starts clearing stuff out of the way, but the people who own the land are trying to build their house there as well.  And now that the house is gone, other people have started to declare rights to the land.  But Bush keeps plodding along.  So then people say you should at least get permission from the city but he doesn't.  Now he's trying to build on someone else's land without permits or the support of the community.  So some people say, OK, if you're going to do this, you need to get a huge crew and just put the sucker up and deal with the fines later.  But instead he decides to go with a small crew.  So people say, ok, but you may need to change the plans then because the longer this goes on, the harder it will be.  But he ignores them as well.

As the house goes up, he starts doing things backwards, putting up sheetrock before he puts in plumbing.  Contractors come in and get fired because they won't do it his way.  In the meantime, the neighbors have started to get mad, the old owners are mad and the city is mad.  And still he plods along.

So here we are, in the middle of a project that has been botched from the start with a contractor who won't listen to his subs, spending millions for people to put stuff up that they have to tear down, and all some people can focus on is their vision of what the finished house will look like.

Here's the real kicker: Every engineer who has looked at his plans say the final product will not be structurally sound.


posted by blognroll on Jan 11, 2007 at 04:42 PM
You could be right, Tom.  You are speaking with a dreamer, and a relentless optimist.  If the dream of a free Iraq doesn't materialize, I guess I'll just have to eat my words, suck it up, and apply my rose-colored ideology to a new issue.  By then, the election may have already happened, and you folks won't have Bush to kick around anymore.  Well, it's been nice. I've got to go.  You are all very bright, so it's been a delight!
posted by blognroll on Jan 11, 2007 at 07:49 PM
Hey, where did everybody go?
posted by mattloch on Jan 12, 2007 at 11:26 AM
"Without support, no plan will work." Support from whom, BLT? It seems to me that the beginning of this war was started with plenty of support (something neo-cons and talk-show conservatives like to toss out there every time a Congressman states opposition to the war). What happened to that support? Who turned that support into opposition? What made it change? You're looking at a multi-year quagmire in which this Administration has done almost everything wrong. I've repeatedly asked you and others to provide a single case where something has gone "according to plan". That would be the first plan, not the revised plan, not the downgraded plan, not the plan that changed into what had already been accomplished, not the plan that took credit for something that was out of their control. This "war" was mismanaged from the very beginning.  I would offer a counter-statement to yours: "Without planning, no war will work." This War has been operated on a shoestring since Day 1. The strategy has been lacking, either through unrealistic expectations, unrealistic assumptions, or unrealistic planning. The execution has been botched since Day 1. People were sent to rebuild Iraq not based on experience or training, but on partisan support for the president. Why are things bound to turn around now? What has changed the underlying reasons for failure now? It isn't more troops, that's for sure.
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TomW - > All Politics Are Local -> About that plan that was going to be proposed...
About that plan that was going to be proposed...
It looks like the President has already begun to implement his New Way Forward, which looks remarkably like the old way.  Since we've had a surge in troop levels 5 times already, I'm not sure what this one hopes to accomplish.  But the more important aspect was that everyone had decided to at least Bush make his case before they passed judgment.  Unfortunately, he's decided to launch his plan before the announcement.

http://abcnews.go.com/WNT/I...

As for the speech tonight, here are the advance snippets.  I guess now they're just working out how they are going to change the tense.

http://i.a.cnn.net/cnn/2007...

If anyone ever asks me again to hold off on criticism, it will fall on deaf ears.

Posted in these Groups:
Topics: escalation, Iraq War, bush
posted by TomW on Wednesday, January 10, 2007 at 02:57 PM
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posted by TomW on Jan 10, 2007 at 03:01 PM
Tonight is going to be painful.
posted by mattloch on Jan 10, 2007 at 03:04 PM
How do we know that the soldiers the article is talking about is one of the "surge" 20,000+, and not regular replacements? Not to suggest that you may be jumping the gun, but I'd like to think that Bush is not that stupid/suicidal....
posted by randomfactor on Jan 10, 2007 at 03:04 PM
Someone observed that, although Bush may call this a change in strategy, or even a "new strategy," it's not even really a change in *TACTICS.*  Heck, it's not even lipstick on the pig.  It's chapstick on the pig.  Doesn't change anything or even look different.  You're stuck with the same old pig stuck in the same old mud.
posted by randomfactor on Jan 10, 2007 at 03:06 PM

Is there a bottom level to stupidity, Mattloch? 

posted by tkozy on Jan 10, 2007 at 03:07 PM

It must be difficult for Bush Jr. to fall from stardom AGAIN. The disasters left in the wake of this mans life, will not be exceeded for quite sometime.

If only the costs could be counted in cash.

NOT BLOOD..

The man America elected. Because he was the type of character, they would most like to sit down and have a drink with.

Got drunk with power.

And headed our nation into a train wreck.

posted by mattloch on Jan 10, 2007 at 03:10 PM
Didn't Darwin and Murphy each come up with theories about that Random? I'd like to think that, genetically, self-preservation eventually kicks in. Of course, there are mutations that one must occasionally worry about.....
posted by TomW on Jan 10, 2007 at 03:16 PM
I have no idea how they tell who is coming in as a standard replacement or not.  But I doubt ABC would run the story without some type of information.
posted by robbwillis on Jan 10, 2007 at 03:16 PM
Must watch TV...
posted by randomfactor on Jan 10, 2007 at 03:16 PM
Remember O'Brien's law:  Murphy was an optimist.
posted by dusty1215 on Jan 10, 2007 at 03:18 PM
Its nice that they leak the entire speech to the media. But I don't want to ruin the surprise, so I will wait for tonights must-see tv, as Robb points out.
posted by ProgressivePete2 on Jan 10, 2007 at 04:04 PM
mattloch, the "surge" as I understand it will be the replacements, but the ones that they're replacing will have to stay. I bet they loved hearing that news.
posted by randomfactor on Jan 10, 2007 at 04:09 PM
The truth is we don't *HAVE* the troops available to do it any other way.   I understand we'll likely be stripping troops out of Afghanistan, too, to make it easier for the Taliban to retake parts of *THAT* country.
posted by ProgressivePete2 on Jan 10, 2007 at 04:13 PM
Geez, you'd almost think that Bush didn't even think about that when he came up with his awesome plan.
posted by mattloch on Jan 10, 2007 at 04:16 PM
Pete, that was my understanding as well. The "surge" is just troops held over past the end of their tour, and starting their tour earlier. I'm just wondering if the ones in the article are some of the "early" troops, or if this was their actual beginning date (meaning they aren't really "surge" troops ahead of schedule, or if they were just on schedule for deployment). Random, I didn't hear anything about pulling troops out of Afghanistan to send into Iraq. The "surge" is just done through the manipulation of starting and ending tour dates from everything I've heard. On a side note, I doubt Afghanistan would be better off if we "surged" troops there, either.
posted by randomfactor on Jan 10, 2007 at 04:16 PM

Ha.  You used "Bush" and "think" in the same sentence.  You have to take a drink now.  In fact, I think *I* will...

.

The reported reason for going with a "surge"?  It makes Bush's Plan seem different from the Iraq Study Group's.*  If only they'd concluded, "whatever you do, don't pull the troops out right away"--we'd see the first of 'em home by now.

.

*(I used "Bush" and "plan" in the same sentence.  Time for another drink...)

posted by mattloch on Jan 10, 2007 at 04:19 PM
Crap Random, do we have a list of "drink phrases" for tonight's speech worked up already? Or are we using the list from some of LBJ's and Nixon's speeches?
posted by randomfactor on Jan 10, 2007 at 04:28 PM

Not directly, perhaps, Mattloch.  But some who *WOULD* have been coming home from Afghanistan will be going to Iraq instead.  And who'll replace them?  We're not exactly robbing Peter to pay Paul; just stiffing Peter to make it *LOOK* like we're going to pay Paul.

 

There's a bit of timing involved, I understand.  We're entering into a traditionally slower season of the war in Iraq now, (March is particularly low) which will make the surge tactic look better than it really is.  But the Afghan Taliban are supposed to be gearing up to retake Kandahar.  Looks like at least *SOME* will be going direct from Afghanistan to Iraq, though:

http://www.estripes.com/art...

posted by randomfactor on Jan 10, 2007 at 04:29 PM
posted by dusty1215 on Jan 10, 2007 at 04:32 PM
Ok, here is the location of Bako's protest tomorrow if anyone is interested..someone asked me about it, I forget who:

January 11, 2007
4:30 PM
Location: Real Rd. and the dead-end of Hwy 58 (one block south of Stockdale Hwy)
email: bakersfieldca@worldcantwait.org

Gather with us at the Southwest Bakersfield military recruiting center to give vocal opposition to Bush's (expected) announcement of a massive troop "surge." We will be standing on the sidewalk near the gigantic yellow traffic signs, at the entrance to the parking lot.

posted by ProgressivePete2 on Jan 10, 2007 at 04:32 PM
mattloch, just use the list from the last speech.
posted by mattloch on Jan 10, 2007 at 04:53 PM
Sorry Pete, I've heard he'll be using "sacrifice" a lot. Newest keyword for him, and one not on the lists yet.
posted by randomfactor on Jan 10, 2007 at 04:54 PM
When *BUSH* loses his job--or God forbid, a family member--*THAT* will be sacrifice.
posted by randomfactor on Jan 10, 2007 at 05:25 PM
One more note about the "plan" before I leave for work--the "surge" is almost exactly countered by the removal of Coalition troops--another 3000 British troops leaving by May.  They're handing off to the Iraqis, something Bush doesn't seem to think possible.
posted by marsh on Jan 10, 2007 at 06:51 PM