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What progress?

One reason given for not approving a stricter cleanup plan for the ultra-fine particulate matter we are plagued with, was the huge improvement the local air district has made since 1999.  Keep in mind, we now know that we are dying, on average, 10 years earlier, than those fortunate to live with cleaner air.

www.fresnobee.com/263/story/621822.html

State officials said the region's concentrations of the pollutant have dropped by 45% since 1999.  ...."Tremendous progress has been made here," said state board chairwoman Mary Nichols. "In fairness, the district has been doing a good job."

Well, everyone knows it is easy to play with statistics in order to prove a point.  Mark Twain said, "There are lies, damn lies, and statistics."   I can play that game also.  I looked at the readings taken at California and Stockdale since 1999 during a ten week period covering the months of November and December when PM 2.5 readings are often high.  The federal health standard is 35 (micrograms per cubic meter) although many say that is not low enough.  From 1999 to 2006 there is an improvement of around 45% in the number of days over the standard. If you go to 2007, the improvement drops to 38%. 

If you only look at the past five years it is shocking to see that every year the number of exceedences has increased.   In 2003 there were only 13 days of killer air during this 70 day period.   In 2004, 21 days.  In 2005, 24 days.  In 2006, 25 days.  In 2007, 30 days.  That is a 231% increase over the last 5 years in contrast to the district claim of a 45% improvement over the past nine years.  It all depends on your assumptions and baselines.

Why has the air worsened over the past five years?  I can only speculate that since ammonium nitrate is the main particulate causing the PM 2.5 violations it is the tremendous growth in Kern County dairies which coincides with these same five years.    Ammonium nitrate needs two ingredients in our air.  NOX from cars and trucks and ammonia from dairies.   Our NOX levels have actually decreased the past five years due to natural fleet turnover to cleaner burning vehicles.  Our ammonia levels have skyrocketed during the same time.

The attached graphs are from CARB.  I have estimated the number of violations through rough interpolation where gaps appear and I have not counted with extreme accuracy those violation days very near to the standard which is the black line.  The scale changes on some of the graphs as well.  Although the exact numbers may be disputed, the fact our air is getting worse and not better the past five years is indisputable.

Note:  there are no local measurements for PM 2.5 before 1999.