The Kern County Young Republicans tried to turn their collective brains to predicting the primary results Tuesday night, and they came pretty close.

Ryan Leggio, who hosted the KCYR’s primary-night party, had attendees write down who would win the GOP primary in California, and with what percentage.

He based it on the “Wisdom of Crowds” theory, with its three components — an incentive (a gift certificate), diversity and aggregation. (The article he points to also requires independence, and he had that by having people write down their predictions on a slip and throw it into a cup.)

The results: 13 guessed McCain, 11 guessed Romney. The McCain guessers averaged 46.5 percent, “which was extremely close to the actual 42.”

The results would have been closer except for two guessers who put down 67 and 57 percent, skewing it very high. Throw those two out and you get 43.6 percent, which is even closer. (Plus, full credit to the Republicans: I think I was the 57, and I was there as a reporter, not as a Republican (which of course meant I couldn’t accept a prize on the off chance I won).)

The people who guessed Romney tended to guess lower than the McCain guessers, he said, perhaps figuring that Huckabee or Giuliani would pick up significant numbers.

Four people tied for the win, one picking 41 and three picking 43.