"Nearly one in four Republican primary voters said they were "unhappy" that he(McCain) would win the GOP nomination. And of those voters, about half said they would either vote for another candidate in November or stay home, an ominous sign for Republicans at a time when Democrats are expected to be highly motivated."

I don't think a poll showing McCain beating Obama or Hillary takes into account the overwhelming numbers the democrats will take to the voting booth. To accurately reflect the situation, poll takers would have to call twice as many democrats as republicans and that wouldn't be considered fair. 

Do you hear that folks?  That should motivate all of you Republicans to head out to the polls in droves and make these poll results consistent with the actual election results.  That's for getting us all off our butts to the voting both come November. 

A lot is riding on McCain's running mate.

The poll was conducted amongst approximately 1200 elderly persons who have neither cell phones nor caller ID.  They also voted for getting those damned kids off their lawns.

A better indicator of the situation today is to take a cumulative look at a variety of polls. RealClearPolitics does that on its website.

If you combine the seven sampled pollsters Obama leads by 3.7% over McCain. Thought I'd share.

robb, the article talks about how McCain has strong democratic crossover appeal, which helps to boost his numbers.  i'm not saying McCain is going to win, I think it's way too soon to tell, but I do think that you are underestimating McCain's ability to get democrats to vote for him.  Of course, if he courts the far right too hard, he'll probably lose those votes.

Not surprising. 

The national polls are badly split on this issue since the New York Times smear story.  Real Clear Politics is the place to go to get a good handle on this stuff:  they are nonpartisan and unbiassed. 

Their weighted composite of recent polls has Obama with a 3.7% lead over McCain.  But that is largely the result of 2 polls that are difficult to trust.  The first is a New York Times/CBS News poll from a week ago that polled just as the NYT hit piece went to press which gives Obama a whopping 12% lead over McCain.  The second is a smaller AP-Ipsos poll over the weekend that gives Obama a large 10% lead over McCain.  Those are huge leads for Obama over McCain.  Those polls are of registered voters which bias significantly toward democrats and are a lot less predictive than are polls of likely voters (if the "likely" part is done well, anyway).

The picture looks a lot different in 3 other polls.  The LA Times/Bloomberg weekend poll gives McCain a 2% lead over Obama.  There are two surprising things about that poll:  it is also of registered voters and those results are from the LA Times.  Perhaps it reflects latino voter differential support for McCain? 

The USA Today/ Gallup poll of 1653 likely voters done over the weekend gives McCain a slim 1% lead over Obama.  This is better than the polls above because it is "likely voters" rather than "registered voters" and because it has a much larger sample size.  It reports a near dead tie.

The 5th of the 5 counted by Real Clear Politics is the Rasmussen tracking poll.  This is a formidable poll because it is an up-to-date continuous tracking poll, it is a likely voters poll, and it is the largest at 1700 likely voters.  It captures more of what has happened since the New York Times smear piece.  This morning it has McCain with a 3% lead over Obama.  This is less than yesterday's 4% lead for McCain but still much higher than the 4% lead Obama enjoyed before the weekend.  If the Rasmussen poll captures what has happened over the past week, it means about 10 million likely voters have shifted to McCain.

So... not surprising that McCain is leading Obama.  Sort of surprising that the LA Times is reporting that among registered voters McCain is leading Obama.

Whatever the case, it may just not be the  "cakewalk" the Dems thought it would be!

That focus group on Fox last night was interesting.

A room full of hard core Dems and 3 of them  (older men of course) said they might just vote for McCain at the end of the debate.

Only 4 were for Hillary before debate, many switched over after.

Most all of them thought Hill won (the debate).

BO is getting so cocky! My wife turned to me and said  "he is actually looking down his nose at her!"

He was! He was also laughing and smiling big even rolled his eyes a little while she was talking.

I dunno, hubris has brought down many a high flyer in my time. We shall see!

I wouldn't call it underestimating as much as I would call it discounting McCain's ability to get democrats to vote for a republican, especially with Roe vs Wade on the line. His choice for vice president better be young, pro-choice and a deliver a state or region's votes in decisive numbers. Anyone fit that bill?  

Sheiks on a Plane?

Or...what do John McCain, Vicki Iseman and eighteen Saudi nationals who left the country after 9/11 have in common?  An airplane with a dove on its tail.

http://ccoaler.blogspot.com...

Robb:

Kay Bailey Hutchison

Charlie Crist

Mark Sanford

Tim Pawlenty
 

Just to name 4 possibles

"Sandford and Dad" has a nice ring to it.

Robb:  Condi Rice fits 2 of your three criteria and while her draw may not be regional in nature, I think she'd have huge crossover appeal.

RF... 

Youse is whut youse eats. 

That blog you linked to is a pile of excrement.  If that is what you shovel in, well...

Critical thinking ought not to be limited only to things like religious belief, bud.  It's like all that incisive thought in one area requires you to get really stupid and ideological in other areas.  No reason for that at all... it's possible to be rational all over...

L.A. Times poll?

You mean the L.A. Times, who the owner said on one hand the economy is doing great and on the other hand said that Clinton and Obama are to blame for the poor economy?

That L.A. Times?

McCain and Rice would be an interesting ticket. She'd be quite the buzzsaw in the VP debates.  

Rice has already said she has no intention of entering the race.

Rice has said NO WAY

So I doubt she's in play

But he could always recruit Michelle Malkin?

Easy on the ol' orbs

Until she opens her mouth and turns into Sean Hannity.

I met Kay Bailey Hutchinson at a fund raiser once

Kinda long in tooth as it were

(for McCain offset purposes - haha!)

If Sean looked like her I could take him a lot easier

He's even making that goof Colmes look good of late

http://www.theonion.com/con...

http://www.theonion.com/con...

well... THIS is what Condi said...

Reuters 2/22/08:

"I have always said that the one thing that I have not seen myself doing is running for elected office," Rice said at a news conference. "I didn't even run for high school president. It's sort of not in my genes."

While her comments were not a categorical refusal to run, Rice also said she had no expectation of playing a role in the campaign by speaking out for McCain or other candidates."

I know different folks will read that differently, but I am thinking John McCain reads it as "You will need to ask me nicely, John."  He will.  Even Dr. Richard Land of The Southern Baptist Convention is pushing McCain in her direction.

Last Tuesday, USA Today ran an editorial by Dewayne Wickham making a case for a Condi VP slot:

"For months now there has been a grassroots effort, called "Think Condi 08," to build a groundswell of support for making Rice the Republican vice presidential candidate. But so far it hasn't taken hold — and there's no evidence that Rice even wants the nomination. 

McCain should try mightily to change this. The excitement Democrats have shown for Obama and Clinton has produced record turnouts in many of the party's primaries and caucuses. Republicans have generated no similar level of enthusiasm.

By picking Rice for the second slot, McCain would make this a historic election for Republicans, too. He'd also link the GOP to a surprisingly long line of blacks who have been a political party's choice to be president or vice president."

She is the obvious, perhaps inevitable, choice.

Publican, I didn't bother to post the article b/c I knew you would.  Go to work you slacker.

I don't think a poll showing McCain beating Obama or Hillary takes into account the overwhelming numbers the democrats will take to the voting booth.

Robb, it also doesn't take into account the number of voters who will tell you to your face that they'd vote for a woman or a black man, go into the voting booth and vote for a white man, then come out and tell the exit pollster that they voted for the woman or the black man. This is what happened to Tom Bradley in 1982, and will continue to happen as long as there are humans walking the planet.  

I would be *VERY* surprised if he picks Rice.  After sewing up the 20-percenters, McBush is going to have to distance himself greatly from the failed Bush Administration.

I met Kay Bailey Hutchinson at a fund raiser once

Kinda long in tooth as it were

Do you know that Kay Bailey Hutchison is only 64 years old? She looks 90!

Dadgum old nag, I tell ya...

I often think of Tom Bradley's run for governor and wonder if the same thing will happen to Obama. I remember being quite surprised, but shouldn't have been.

No way McCain even considers Condi. Blacks aren't going to vote for anyone with an "R" after their name, anyway, and a black woman on the ticket would infuriate the Christian right, who would run a fourth-party candidate that would cost McC a lot of votes.

I've been saying for a while that Condi is the obvious choice for VP.  As for the polls, I think McCain hasn't really surged, but Clinton and Obama both fell as the fight got a bit bitter between the Democratic rivals.  One thing I notice is that undecideds are up which may well be people who won't say they'll vote for their preferred Democrats rival.

Watch for new polling next Wednesday if Hillary drops out of the race.

JohnBurns, I think what's interesting is that Obama has been outperforming polls in many of the primaries.  Maybe we'll see a reverse Bradley effect this time around.

Interesting letter regarding what the dog did in the night, re:  McCain and public financing.  (Word document, sorry).

http://electionlawblog.org/...

I often think of Tom Bradley's run for governor and wonder if the same thing will happen to Obama. I remember being quite surprised, but shouldn't have been.

I voted for Bradley in '82. They asked him the next day if he thought that race had played a part in polls showing him winning but ballots had him the loser, and he just shook his head and said that he didn't know. The people across the street from our house always voted a straight Democrat ticket (the husband was a union member), but they voted for Deukmejian in '82 and Reagan in '84. Black on the first ballot, woman on the second, so these devout Christian Democrats voted Republican.

The exact same thing will happen to Obama. Many blacks don't like him, claiming that he's "not black enough." I don't like McCain's stand on illegals - he has Juan Hernandez as his head of outreach - but he'll end up winning, and probably by a wide margin. When all is said and done, in the privacy of their homes or in the voting booth, people really haven't changed much at all in the last fifty years. They just pretend that they have. 

JohnBurns, I think what's interesting is that Obama has been outperforming polls in many of the primaries.

That's because he's running against a woman. Insecure men won't vote for a woman, and many women won't because they believe the man should be in charge of things.

Yah, I think Condi has 2 big problems. 

The first is that her credential is foreign policy, which overlaps McCain's expertise,  leaving no domestic policy expertise on the ticket.  That would focus the Republican campaign around security.  On the other hand, McCain will have to make security the big issue anyway.  Too, its easy to argue that the Vice President is irrelevant unless something happens to the President and then you want a VP who knows foreign policy.

The second is the one RF points to:  McCain will probably want to distance himself from the Bush Administration.  No one knows how important this will be in 6 months, though:  it may not be nearly as much of an issue as it is now. 

McCain will have no trouble separating himself from Bush on foreign policy:  he was almost the lone Republican critic of Bush/Cheney/Rumsfeld in Iraq and Iraq improved only after Bush dumped Rummy, put in Petraeus, and did the McCain Surge.  Condi Rice's foreign policy reputation has remained intact even while Bush, Cheney, and Rumsfeld's collapsed.

Too, a lot of "separation" may not be achievable beyond foreign policy:  RF is already calling him McBush and others are pushing that cute McCain-Bush hug picture.  Condi Rice doesn't do any damage that isn't already done.

Beyond these...  unh... she would be head and shoulders the most intelligent person in the race, she would be the most highly educated, she would be by far the most accomplished and experienced in executive decision-making, and she would be black and she would be a she. 

McCain better fit Juan with a muzzle if he's going to keep him around. He's enough to gag a maggot.

But he could always recruit Michelle Malkin?

Easy on the ol' orbs

She's also of Filipino ancestry. Anyone other than a white male on the ticket, and McCain loses.

JBS, she's (KBH)  "ONLY"  64?

Man! That's young!    

she would be head and shoulders the most intelligent person in the race, she would be the most highly educated, she would be by far the most accomplished and experienced in executive decision-making

Right on Pub! She's got more talents in her pinkie than most of us do in our extended families!

Michael Wiener notwithstanding......

McCain's tied himself to the anchor of Iraq and is now prepared to swim from here to the presidency.

I like Michelle Malkin

I don't care what she is!

I saw her take on Malik Shabazz one night filling in for the other BO (O'Rielly) and she tore him a new one!

She's fiesty! I LIKE that!

He can swim with the anchor.

Don't wanna make it too easy!

Just don't give Michelle her own show or let her guest host. Like Hannity, she brownnoses the Santorum types and talks over the opposition. If things were reversed, it would be just as unwatchable.

Michelle  Malkin.

Let him?  I plan to toss McBush a few more anchors between now and then.

I doubt that Condi Rice would get many blacks to vote for McCain against Obama or many women to vote for McCain against Clinton.    But, see yet?  She pulls lots of women annoyed that their girl got dissed and alternatively she pulls lots of minorities annoyed that their guy got dissed.

But her value in the general election against Obama isn't her ability to draw black votes, it would be her ability to get educated urban voters, women, and independents who might otherwise vote for Obama.  I bet there would be about zero conservative racial bigots who wouldn't vote for McCain if Condi was on the ticket when the alternative was President Obama.

Denver is the week before St. Paul, so the Democrats pick their VP before the Republicans.  Obama isn't going for a woman - that is just too much change and he needs someone regional with foreign policy credentials:  some old white guy.  That means McCain gets to choose the only woman in the race a week later.  That she is young, black, and a foreign policy badass is all extra goodness.  And if Hillary Clinton's Democratic supporters feel even a little disappointed that their girl got dissed the week before, watch tens of millions of votes head to McCain within minutes...

JBS, she's (KBH)  "ONLY"  64?

Man! That's young!    

It ain't old. I saw Liz Taylor bleepity-bleep a reporter who said something that she didn't like when she was 63. She may have ben 63 on her driver's license, but she was far from being an old lady. When I was 26 I saw a picture of Billy Conn's wife, who was 60 or 61 at the time. Cutest doll you ever saw.

I saw her take on Malik Shabazz one night filling in for the other BO (O'Rielly) and she tore him a new one!

I saw that! Shabazz is a graduate of Howard University's Law School. Rumor has it that it took him 3,716 tries to pass a bar exam somewhere. He didn't like a woman standing up to him like that. Too bad.

Please let it be Condi "No One Could Have Foreseen" Rice.

Here's a much better photo of Michelle:

Here's photo of Hillary, seeing Ted Kennedy sunbathing nude:

The one I posted brings out her inner self quite clearly.  I'm well aware that while hiding her personality she's quite attractive.  I just set my personal standards a bit higher.