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LA Times is indeed in town. They're skedded to go to a McCain precinct walking event at 10 am Friday (starting at Western Pacific Research).
(And Obama/pizza event Thursday night at Cataldo's.)
I'll try to go to one or both of these. I love seeing what the out-of-town papers do in Bako. 'Member when we had the New York Post when Hillary missed the Sikh fundraiser?
Contact info for remaining campaigns (if you're so inclined) is at bakersfield.com/elections. So far no local Hillary group. The other Big 3 are active.
Stay tuned.
-- Gretchen Wenner staff writer
Sorry this is so late, but we just confirmed there's a debate-watching party for Obama supporters tonight (Thursday Jan 31). Starts around 4:45 or 5 pm at Cataldo's Pizza at Stockdale and Real. Supposedly the LA Times is sending a reporter to cover what's going on...not sure if it's just coverage of Dems in a Republican county or if they're going to cover R stuff as well. If I have time I'll drop by and give an update. We got this too late to print in today's paper, but there ya have it!
For the five of you who care — though ALL of you should care DEEPLY — the latest round of campaign finance reports are due today. They cover money in and out of campaigns during the last half of 2007. I've only begun perusing the docs but one thing I noticed is Republican Danny Gilmore has a "Gilmore for Assembly 2008" campaign committee so I guess he is running for 30th District Assembly again. The retired CHP officer from Hanford lost to incumbent Nicole Parra two years ago, but not before giving her quite a scare on election night. Parra's termed out this year unless Prop. 93 passes. I've tried to call Danny to see if he's running but the number on his filings is for a fax machine, not a phone. Grrr. The filings show the other 30th contender, Democrat Fran Florez (mom of state Sen. Dean) had $112,952.05 in the bank as of Dec. 31 of 2007. That’s after raising $14,240.50 in cash between last July and December. Gilmore had $12,703 at the end of 2007 and didn’t raise any cash during the six-month reporting period. At the county, reporter James Burger found that: • Supervisor Michael Rubio raised $48,000 and has about $100,000 in the bank. Is he expecting or fending off a challenge? • Supervisor Jon McQuiston took in $1,500 and has a whopping $800. Is he retiring? • Dean Florez raised $42,000 for his lieutenant governor fund. Does he have a chance?
Here are some links: • Secretary of State: cal-access.ss.ca.gov/campaign/ • City of Bakersfield (Click on City Clerk, then Public Access, then Campaign Statements and click on the candidate's name: www.bakersfieldcity.us/weblink7/Browse.aspx •County elections: elections.co.kern.ca.us/elections/e_can_filing/e_ can_filing_main.asp Let us know if you find anything interesting! Some press releases we get are worth sharing for entertainment, rather than news, value. One just rolled in with the subject line: "Story Idea: How 'Acting Like a Lady' Can Help Hillary's Campaign." OK. Thank you, Roxanne from North Carolina, for this "story" idea. We'll get right on it; I'm hoping to scoop the LA Times on this one. One of the probing issues raised in the 6-page "how to rule the world in ladylike fashion" tip sheet: Should she show cleavage? Recently a political journo pointed out it's getting harder to distinguish "real" headlines about the presidential race from faux headlines in The Onion. Now it seems to be getting that way with press releases. Here's a link to the release: http://www.nocryinginconstr... Now excuse me but I've got to stop the presses...
-- Gretchen Wenner Staff writer
Who are your political leaders voting for? I took a quick poll today of the Bakersfield City Council members before their meeting started. Irma Carson, the only African-American woman on the council and a Democrat, won't be here tonight, so I'll have to find her later. --James Geluso City government reporter Maybe Barack Obama really can bring the country together. He’s done it with political rivals Dean Florez and Nicole Parra. State Sen. Florez, the Democrat from Shafter, and Assemblywoman Parra, the Democrat from Hanford, are members of Obama’s new Latino Steering Committee in California, it was announced Wednesday. The 18-person committee is working to turn out the Latino vote for next Tuesday's primary by such things as organizing neighborhood walks and rallies and, in Florez’s case, visiting black churches in Bakersfield Sunday.
Kern County Elections Chief Sandy Brockman dished the latest voter registration numbers for Kern County this morning. Here are the stats: Total voters Nov. 2006: 289,233 Total voters Feb. 2008: 282,829 Summary: 2.2 percent drop in number of voters.
Republicans 2006: 137,105 Republicans 2008: 131,878 Summary: 3.8 percent drop in registered Republicans
Democrats 2006: 103,252 Democrats 2008: 100,728 Summary: 2.4 percent drop in registered Democrats
Decline to State voters 2006: 38,746 DTS voters 2008: 40,019 Bottom line: 3.2 Increase in DTS registrations.
So people, what's up with the "no party" party growing while the Dems and Repubs wither away? Are people just sick of party politics, or is there some other reason why the DTS'ers are on the rise?
Now that the list of presidential drop-outs is getting longer and longer — Rudy Giuliani and John Edwards being the latest additions — we want to know: Which among them would have been the best president?
An L.A. Times poll says the Proposition 93 contest — which could keep Nicole Parra, Roy Ashburn and our other pols around longer — is too close to call. How are you voting? Here are the details of the poll and a link to the whole story: SACRAMENTO -- Half of likely California voters support Proposition 93, the ballot measure to adjust the Legislature's term limits, but nearly as many appear poised to reject it, according to a new poll. The 1,218 likely primary voters interviewed Wednesday through Sunday under the supervision of Times Poll Director Susan Pinkus showed 50% of voters supporting Proposition 93 and 46% leaning against it, with a margin of sampling error of 3 percentage points. www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-me-poll30jan30,0 ,7942509.story I know they were a bit campy but since childhood I've loved reading all the Washington, D.C.-based murder mysteries by Margaret Truman. They all started with "Murder in the ..." and ended with White House, National Cathedral, Pentagon, etc. Anyway, she died today and the Times had a really interesting obit: www.latimes.com/news/obituaries/la-me-daniel30jan 30,0,5636232.story A bill has cleared Congress to name a Taft post office after Larry S. Pierce, who on Sept. 20, 1965, sacrificed his own life by throwing himself on an antipersonnel mine as it exploded to save fellow soldiers in Vietnam, according to Congressman Kevin McCarthy's office. The bill has passed the House and Senate and is headed to the president for signature. McCarthy said this in a news release: "Today, more than ever, it is important to remember the heroes, past and present, who sacrifice to protect our freedoms and defend our country. Naming the post office in his hometown is a fitting tribute to Larry Pierce, whose life and sacrifice epitomizes the spirit of bravery and courage that is uniquely American.” Pierce was awarded the Congressional Medal of Honor in 1966. He would have been 67 this year, McCarthy's office said, and is survived by his wife, Verlin, who lives in Bakersfield, and his three children, Teresa, Kelley, and Gregory. The post office, at 427 North St. in Taft, would be called the “Larry S. Pierce Post Office." Who'll be watching Florida returns?
Predictions, anyone?
How 'bout a few what ifs: • What if McCain wins? • What if Romney wins? • What if Giuliani wins?
From the L.A. Times today: One week before California throws itself into the presidential contest, John McCain and Hillary Rodham Clinton hold sweeping leads in the races for their parties' nominations, but the battles remain hugely volatile, a new statewide poll has found. Clinton held onto a 49% to 32% lead over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama among Democrats, despite losing some support in key voter groups. Here's a link to the whole story: www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-me-poll29jan29,0 ,3481476.story Tomorrow is the Republicans' big day in Florida. The winner takes all delegates there. Lots of 'em. Q's: • Is it over for Rudy if he doesn't win? • If the R ticket becomes a McCain/Romney battle, which candidate will local Giuliani supporters turn to? • In previous posts some of our bloggers said No Way regarding Romney, which left me to wonder: What's the matter with Romney? Is it the Mormon thing? If not, what?
Happy Monday!
Gretchen
In 3.5 hours or so, South Carolina polls close for the Dem primary. Predictions, anyone? Obama is the easy winner in polls. Will the outcome affect any readers' vote? Is it end of the road for Edwards if he doesn't win? (Does anyone think he'll win?) Finally: Is anyone out there blogging on a Saturday? ;)
Assemblywoman Nicole Parra told a Californian editor this week that even if the term tweaks under Proposition 93 pass, she's leaning against running for another term. Under the law now, Parra is termed out this year; if 93 passes Feb. 5, she could spend up to six more years in the Assembly — where she has served since 2002. Parra has a Parra for (state) Senate 2010 campaign committee with $175,000 in the bank as of the end of 2007, according to the California Secretary of State's office. She said if she doesn't stay in the Assembly after this year, she's interested in continuing to live in Sacramento and perhaps work with a nonprofit group. And on a personal note, Parra said she'd like to get married and have kids. The Obama campaign announced today it's launching a Spanish-language television ad — but airing in L.A., not up here. It purports to highlight his "personal story and vision of hope for our country. " You can view the ad at: http://ca.barackobama.com/c... Bill/Hill vs. Barack. It's been the chatter of cable news the past two days, that they're trading swipes etc. TV pundits have focused on whether it's been good or bad for (the) Clinton(s) to go negative. Certainly they're savvy enough to have accounted for an ugliness backlash. Is the shift to ugly a strategic move, then, and if so what's the strategy? Here's an idea for starters. The race between the eventual D and R nominees will get nasty for sure. Maybe they want to demonstrate early they can handle ugly on both giving and receiving ends. Other explanations? Reactions? Did Monday's D debate help/hurt anyone's impressions of Clinton or Obama?
There was speculation; now there's a statement: Thompson is out of the race for prez.
He had some support in Kern County. Any Thompson folks care to chime in on where their vote is going now? Does this affect the R side of the race or had his campaign already slipped too far behind McCain, Romney, Giuliani? On the D side: Is Edwards far behind or is he still viable? Catch up on political news in our special section: http://www.bakersfield.com/... Picture credit: Wikimedia
Talk about throwing down the glove: Roy Ashburn questioned Mark Abernathy's allegiance to Reagan this afternoon.
"They're not keeping faith with Ronald Reagan," Ashburn said of Abernathy and his camp. Isn't that about the harshest Republican-to-Republican accusation one could make these days? The topic came up after an Abernathy-backed press conference this morning, complete with a wooden Trojan horse, to oppose Prop. 93, the purported term-limit reform measure on the Feb. 5 state ballot. Ashburn has come out in support of 93. Reagan was always opposed to term limits, he said. Prop. 93, if it passes, won't abolish term limits; it will tweak how state lawmakers can spend time in office. Ashburn could run for an additional Senate term if voters approve 93. Opponents, including Abernathy, see the whole thing as a ploy -— a Trojan horse — to allow powerful incumbents to stay in office longer. The question is: Which side would Reagan be on? For or against 93? Read the full story on the No and Yes on Prop. 93 campaigns. Catch up on political news in our special section: http://www.bakersfield.com/... Take a look and tell us what you think. I hear there's a Barack Obama ad running also but haven't caught it. If you have and can share it with the rest of us, please do!
So I received my absentee ballot last week but still have gone nowhere near it. Not in this incredibly unpredictable — on both the Republican and Democratic sides — primary. You don't know what someone's going to say or do next let alone who will survive the upcoming state contests.
Anybody thinking the same? Surely, as we're running a wire story Saturday saying state elections officials predict nearly 13 percent of all primary ballots cast could remain untallied on election night because more and more voters are going the absentee route but waiting until the last minute to turn them in because of the wild and wacky races.
John Edwards is turning his attention to California, says his campaign...
EDWARDS TO BRING FIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE CLASS TO CALIFORNIA “America Rising, Coast to Coast” Tour Stops in Los Angeles on Thursday, January 17th Los Angeles, California – On Thursday, January 17th, 2008, John Edwards will hold an event in Los Angeles as part of a three-day “America Rising, Coast to Coast” tour. Over the course of the tour, Edwards will also visit Nevada, Georgia, Missouri, Oklahoma and his native state of South Carolina and will share with voters his detailed plans to stand up to the powerful interests and make sure hard-working families can get ahead. Edwards enjoys the support of more than 760,000 union members across California, including the support of California’s single largest union, the California SEIU State Council. Edwards has also won the support of dozens of diverse Democratic elected officials and party leaders from every region of the Golden State. “For too long, powerful entrenched interests have gotten every break imaginable from Washington, while middle class families have struggled,” said Edwards. “I have spent my entire life standing up and fighting for regular Americans against these interests – and beating them. I know that if we fight together we can get the change we need and take our country back – because every time we fight for jobs, for families, for the middle class, for universal health care, America rises.” As a sign of his commitment to making sure the voices of all Americans are heard in Washington, Edwards will travel to red states and blue states from the West Coast to the East Coast. Born to a working class family and raised in small, rural mill towns, Edwards understands the struggles facing hard-working families. His message of change is resonating with voters in red states and blue states, in big cities and small towns. During the tour, Edwards will visit Nevada, California, Oklahoma, Missouri, Georgia and South Carolina to demonstrate his broad, coast to coast strength and his advantage as the best candidate to win the general election. In addition to strong grassroots support in these states, Edwards also enjoys the support of numerous labor groups and state and local elected officials. A recent CNN poll showed Edwards was the only Democrat to beat all four leading Republicans nationally, and state by state polls show even more conclusively that Edwards is the most electable democrat in key battleground states -- and even wins in states like Missouri and Oklahoma that have gone "red" in recent presidential elections. As former Georgia Governor Roy Barnes has said: "John Edwards is the best positioned to win all across the country—not just part of it." Details of Edwards’ Los Angeles event are included below. To attend this free event, the public should RSVP on the John Edwards for President website at: www.JohnEdwards.com/losangeles. THURSDAY, JANUARY 17TH, 2008 12:30PM PT John Edwards to hold an “America Rising, Coast to Coast” event SEIU Local 721 Office of Southern CA Public Service Workers 1015 Wilshire Blvd Los Angeles, California
Just because the national media got everything wrong in New Hampshire is no reason for me to not share my prognotications.
I think Huckabee is going to win the Republican primary in Michigan. I base this on two key facts: 1. Michigan has a closed primary system, so no last-minute crossovers. 2. I grew up in the suburbs of Grand Rapids, specifically in Jenison, which is part of Ottawa County, which (according to the local lore) hasn't voted for a Democrat for president since it voted against Abraham Lincoln. (I have never checked this fact, and whether it's true matters less for our purposes today than that Ottawa County residents believe it's true.) The major argument in the Letters to the Editor at the Grand Rapids Press -- for years! -- was whether faith alone will get you into heaven, or whether you need to actually act on your faith through works. This leads me to believe that Western Michigan, the Republican base of Michigan, will go for Huckabee over McCain, Romney and especially Giuliani. The Detroit side of the state might go for McCain or Romney, but the Christian Reformed Dutch will go for Huckabee. That's my prediction based on nothing more than living there for 18 years ending 17 years ago. What's yours? -- James Geluso Not moving back no matter how much my grandmas want me to
Nothing’s set in stone but Democratic presidential hopeful Dennis Kucinich may come to Bakersfield Jan. 21, according to a campaign worker.
It would be part of a tour of central California being planned for the Ohio congressman, said Roslyn Scheuerman, a Ventura-based member of Kucinich’s California team. She was on her way to Bakersfield Thursday morning to scout out possible locations. Scheuerman said Kucinich has been to Fresno, Ventura and Santa Barbara but she doesn’t think he’s been to our fair city. We’ve had other promises of presidential-contender visits dashed, though. Republican Mitt Romney canceled a trip here that was to include a visit to Dewar’s while a group of local Sikhs said Democrat Hillary Clinton was supposed to attend a fundraiser of theirs but didn’t show up.
Local officials are keeping an wary eye on Sacramento. In just over an hour, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger will unveil his proposed budget.
It's supposed to be filled with deep, painful cuts to social services, parks, schools, prisons and a sweeping collection of other services. At the City of Bakersfield, officials won’t even start putting the budget together until they see what’s coming down Highway 99. “You tend to wait to see what the state may do to us,” said John Stinson, the city’s assistant city manager. “We may not know in detail for some time given the potential for change at the state level.” “It’s unrealistic to think they won’t do some action that impacts us,” he added. Kern County officials are more certain that serious cuts will impact their ability to offer services to citizens. County Budget and Finance Director Debbie Stevenson, this week, delayed a presentation on budget priorities for the 2008-2009 financial year to supervisors in order to find out the specifics of the governor's plan. Major state publication including the L.A. Times and the Sacramento Bee have published early reports that Schwarzenegger's budget cuts deeply into social programs. Since the County of Kern administers most of those programs on the state's behalf, local services and programs could face major cuts. The Calfornian will be gathering specific information about the impacts of Gov. Schwarzenegger's plan as the day goes on.
First District Kern County Supervisor Jon McQuiston said Tuesday that he hasn't yet decided if he will run for office again this year.
But at least one person at Tuesday's meeting was sure he wanted to run for McQuiston's seat. Medical marijuana advocate Jeff Clark told the board that he plans to run for McQuiston's seat so he can fix a county ordinance which has created a de-facto ban on businesses that dispense marijuana to people who have doctor's recommendation to the use the drug. The ordinance allows six such dispensaries in Kern County. Six businesses have the permits but have chosen to close their doors following federal drug raids against one of the dispensaries. The first district covers the northeastern portion of Kern County including Delano, McFarland, north Bakersfield, Lake Isabella, Kernville and Ridgecrest.
Now that New Hampshire kept things interesting in both primaries, (bless 'em), what do you guys think will happen in California, including in Kern? Who will do well here? What will determine that? Or are you hesitant to predict ANYTHING given the surprises New Hampshire gave us?
We'll be asking pundits the same questions this week for a Sunday story in The Californian, by the way. And we're also looking at what campaign efforts are getting under way here, so if you have info. on that, please share!
If you're wondering what the Obama camp is planning after yesterday's loss, it sent out this press release this morning, (which includes some California specifics):
Coming off an impressive win in Iowa and taking the once inevitable frontrunner down to the wire in her firewall state, it is clear that Obama is well-positioned to become the next President of the United States. As the people of Iowa and New Hampshire demonstrated, the American people desperately want change they can believe in. Barack Obama is the candidate to deliver that change by bringing people together, standing up to the special interests, and telling people what they need to know. Our campaign now turns its focus squarely to Nevada and South Carolina, and February 5th. Today, we kick off the next phase of our campaign in New Jersey, an important February 5th state. Fundraising In the 4th Quarter of 2007, our campaign raised $23.5 million – over $22.5 million of which is for the primary election. In that quarter, we added 111,000 new donors for a total of 475,000 donors in 2007. In the first 8 days of 2008, we raised over $8 million and gained 35,000 new donors. Since midnight last night, we have raised another $500,000 online. We continue to build a grassroots movement that makes us best-positioned to compete financially in the primaries and caucuses coming up. Nevada We have built the same caucus operation in Nevada as we did in Iowa, with focused and effective precinct captains in over 95 percent of the precincts in the state, and multiple captains in many precincts. We have also been reaching deep into the electorate, securing commitments to caucus from habitual Democratic voters, general election voting Democrats and Independents. In a significant boost to our efforts, we received the endorsement of the SEIU local in Nevada late last night. This is the first time Nevada has had a precinct caucus so organization is paramount, both in terms of shaping the overall electorate as well as the added challenge of getting voters to locations that are unfamiliar to them. South Carolina We have seen dramatic movement in South Carolina since Iowa, resulting in healthy double-digit leads for Senator Obama in recent public polling. We have by far the strongest organization in the state according to neutral observers and believe that, as the gateway to February 5th, South Carolina will provide our campaign enormous momentum heading into those twenty-two states. Obama also has the support of several key political figures in South Carolina, including former Governor Jim Hodges, Charleston Mayor Joe Riley, and former party chairs Joe Erwin and Dick Harpootlian. February 5th We now have staff in nineteen of the twenty-two February 5th states and will be adding to the remaining three – Delaware, Arkansas and Connecticut – by the end of the week. In the six caucus states – Colorado, Minnesota, Kansas, Idaho, Alaska and North Dakota - we have been engaged in heavy organizing and voter contact. In many of these states, our opponents are not engaged in any organizing. We firmly believe you cannot build a caucus operation in a matter of four weeks, so we are at a decided advantage in these states where we have already identified tens of thousands of Obama supporters and where, in the last five days, the number of new volunteers and supporters has exploded. We are in the process of mailing past caucus-goers and our ID-ed supporters in those states. We are also preparing aggressively for vote-by-mail in states like California and Arizona, where we have mail pieces hitting this week and an exhaustive phone program in place to identify supporters and make sure those ballots are returned. In all of the February 5th states, we have active chapters at most colleges and universities and are pursuing support from independent voters aggressively where they are permitted to participate, which is in most of the states. California and New Jersey, two states the Clintons have pointed to as firewalls, both will have healthy independent turnout in the Democratic primary. We expect to see a great deal of movement to Obama from superdelegates in the coming days, seriously eroding the Clintons’ existing advantage in this universe. To fully execute a robust February 5th strategy, it will take tens of millions of dollars. Our financial picture is strong and growing stronger by the day, which will allow us to have a significant paid media presence to go alongside our grassroots operations in our target February 5th states. We expect, as we begin to see significant national poll movement, that there will also be positive poll movement in the February 5th states. Obama saw substantial gains in the individual February 5th state polls in December opening up a lead in Georgia and seeing a seriously tightening race in California. We will be releasing later today our final fourth quarter 2007 estimates, as well as some numbers for the first eight days of January for both dollars raised, as well as number of total donors and new donors acquired in these periods. The coming weeks will be challenging and no doubt filled with more haphazard and relentless attacks, but we believe we could not be better positioned for the next twenty four states. Our goal is simple – to win as many states as we can in the next twenty-eight days.
I was at the county elections office today and there was a woman there wanting to re-register, as an “independent,” and then pick which primary — Democratic or Republican — to vote in next month. She was clearly disappointed — and first in disbelief — that unlike in other states, your options are limited if you register as an independent here.
She decided against re-registering. I don’t know what party she was already pledged to. (I should have asked!) Anyway, I know she was just one person but it seemed to underscore something I hear from lots of people — that they don’t feel connected to the Republican or Democratic parties but still want a say in who gets nominated for president. Do any of you feel the same? At this late date, are you still trying to decide what primary to vote in? You have to decide by the registration deadline, Jan. 22. Of course you can vote for anyone you’d like in the November general election. By the way, here are the rules on who can vote for whom in the primary, courtesy of the League of Women Voters of California: If you are registered to vote with a political party, you will be given a ballot for that party in a primary election. If you are unaffiliated with any party ("decline to state" or "independent"), * You may request the ballot of the American Independent or Democratic party at the polls on February 5, 2008, or on your absentee ballot request form, or * You will be given a nonpartisan ballot, containing only the names of all candidates for nonpartisan offices and measures to be voted upon at the primary election.
All the pundits and campaign managers we've been talking to say we'll start seeing campaign ads, mailers, phone calls and the like after the New Hampshire primary. Well, New Hampshire's just a few hours away!
So we in the newsroom are wondering, are you guys excited about or dreading the impending arrival of Campaign 2008 here? And by the way, pundits are saying you who've signed up to vote early and/or by mail may hear from the hopefuls first. If you do get a phone call, a mailer, or see an ad, can you let us know about them ASAP?
The Bakersfield Californian
We learned more Monday about who locally is supporting whom in California’s presidential primary. Republican hopefuls announced their California delegate slates, meaning the people who will represent them in the primary Feb. 5. Selections are made by congressional district; the 20th and 22nd districts have pieces of Kern County. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani’s picks include: 20th: Donald L. Eiland, Frank E. Silva and Prudence Eiland, all from Hanford. 22nd: Frank Anthony Visco and Ronald Dean Smith, both from Lancaster, and Edith M. Knight of Atascadero. Former Massachusetts Gov. MItt Romney named names but didn’t say where exactly they’re from. They include: 20th: Le Roy Berrett, Scott Hawkins and Tyler Smith. 22nd: David Adams, Catherine Hart and Andrew Mercy. Candidates often choose delegates based on work they’ve done for their campaigns. When Californians vote in the primary, they technically pick slates of delegates. The Republican and Democratic parties have different rules for how delegates go about choosing among the presidential contenders. Asked why none of the Giuliani picks from the 20th and 22nd districts are from Kern County, a spokesman said the candidate only had three choices and these were the ones made.
We want to know what y'all think about results of Iowa's caucuses.
Especially: Will the outcome have any influence on you? Here are links to latest results: Republican: www.iowagop.net/ Democratic: www.iowacaucusresults.com/ 
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