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By 10 a.m. this morning, a quarter of Kern voters had already cast their vote in this year's election.

County election officials say more than 82,000 absentee ballots have been returned so far, accounting for 26 percent of registered voters in Kern. And the number of returned ballots is increasing by about 1,000 each hour.

About 141,000 voters, or half of all registered voters in the county, requested absentee ballots for this election, said Elections Chief Sandy Brockman. That's a 54 percent jump over the last presidential election, when about 92,000 absentee ballots were issued. During the same time, about 16,000 new voters have been added to the rolls.

Check out some of the charts we created to see a breakdown of absentee ballots issued and returned by party. We also show the party makeup of Kern's 311,000 voters.

It's too late to have an absentee ballot mailed to you now but you can still request and complete one in-person at the county elections office through Tuesday. I did the other day and it was breeze. And it will likely save you a long wait at the polls Tuesday. The elections office, located at 1115 Truxtun Ave., is open from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. today and Monday, and 7 a.m. 8 p.m. on Tuesday.

Happy Voting!

-- Stacey Shepard

Thursday former Republican Congressman Bill Thomas said the combination of 21st Century election strategies and Barack Obama's charisma has  served the Illinois Democrat well.

Thomas, a force in Washington for 28 years, predicted that Obama will win and Republicans will be sidelined over the coming four years.

Here's more of what he said.

Barack Obama and John McCain are back to being in a statistical dead heat in the Central Valley, according to a Field Poll released Thursday.

Obama has pulled ahead of McCain 47.2 percent to 45.9 percent among likely voters, according to numbers provided to the Sacramento Bee. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.

(The raw numbers were 77 for Obama, 75 for McCain).

A September Field Poll had McCain up in the valley 45 percent to 40 percent; in July McCain led 39.6 percent to 38.8 percent.

Among the latest findings:

• Obama has a 55 percent to 33 percent lead in California, which if holds would be the widest margin of any presidential candidate in the state since World War II.

• 53 percent of likely voters intend to vote at their local precinct, compared to 47 percent voting early or by mail.

• In the valley, 59.1 percent of likely voters have a favorable impression of McCain; 58.8 percent have one of Obama.

• 52.3 percent of likely valley voters have a favorable impression of Democratic vice presidential hopeful Joe Biden; 46.2 percent feel that way about Republican veep candidate Sarah Palin.

Source: Random sample of 966 California likely voters Oct. 18-28.


 

Final numbers are in from the Kern County Elections division.

The total number of registered voters for the November 4 election is 311,137.

Republicans — 140,043 — 45 percent

Democrats — 112,084 — 36 percent

Decline to state — 47,871 — 15.3 percent

The Sierra Club put out its annual Legislative Scorecard today.

"Sierra Club California tracked the votes of California’s Assemblymembers and Senators, recording each Earth-friendly vote as a positive score. From toxics prevention to fire safety to environmental education, the measures addressed many of California’s most urgent 2008 environmental priorities."

Sen. Dean Florez was one of three legislators to get a 100 percent from the club. Meanwhile, Sen. Roy Ashburn was one of six to score a 0 percent.

You can see the details here.

Last month's televised debate between 30th District Assembly Candidates Fran Florez and Danny Gilmore is now on the Web! Check it out here and marvel as the candidates try to answer 24 questions each in a one-hour block with commercials.

— James Geluso

The L.A. Times has a new poll out showing Barack Obama has big leads in Ohio and Florida.

The paper says voters trust Obama more than John McCain on the economy.

"Barack Obama understands Joe the Plumber better than John McCain," said one voter.

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Four one-of-a-kind Cabbage Patch Kids dolls crafted in the likeness of presidential candidates Barack Obama and John McCain and vice presidential candidates Joe Biden and Sarah Palin will be auctioned on the eBay.com Web site.

All proceeds from the auction, which begins Thursday and ends Nov. 4, will benefit the Marine Toys for Tots Foundation.

Please refrain from using as pin cushions or burning in effigy.

--Courtenay Edelhart

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Most radio talk show hosts are insignificant blowhards who can't get anyone to listen to them in real life.

They'll talk about anything to get your attention, even intensely private stuff like who and what they're voting for on Nov. 4.

Enter Inga Barks and her election picks.

— Andrew Mockett

The 30th Assembly District race is not, it turns out, the most expensive race for a seat in the lower house of a state legislature anywhere in the country.

It’s the second-most expensive.

For now.

The 80th District — Imperial and eastern Riverside counties, outside San Diego — has run up a total of $5.18 million in contributions and independent expenditures.

The 30th District race, the one between Fran Florez and Danny Gilmore, has only come to $4.86 million.

The money is still flowing in both races, though.

The 80th, like the 30th, is a largely rural swing district with a termed-out incumbent.

Here are the numbers on the 30th:

Florez has received $2.74 million, of which $1.93 million has come from the party, and $472,000 is in independent expenditures, which is when a group acts on its own to send out a mailer or put on a TV ad.

Gilmore has received $2.12 million, of which $1.04 million has come from the party, and $452,000 is in independent expenditures.

Contributions in the 2006 30th District race between Gilmore and Nicole Parra came to $2.94 million.

FYI, I’m counting as party contribution any party organization and any political campaign (such as Dean Florez for Lt. Governor’s contributions to Florez and Zack Scrivner for City Council’s contribution to Gilmore), but not employees of the campaign or political action committees.

Lots of people are waiting to see whether there will be a Bradley Effect — people lying to pollsters, saying they were willing to vote for a black man when they really weren't — in the presidential race.

But strategists who actually worked on the 1982 California gubernatorial race that originated the term say there was no such thing even then.

This week's episode of On the Media has a fascinating segment on it.

The guy who ran the Field poll theorized the Bradley Effect to explain why his poll was wrong. But really, the strategists say, the poll was wrong because it was flawed. The sample failed to account for the Republicans' superior absentee ballot turnout effort, and a gun-control proposition that boosted turnout in the Central Valley.

— James Geluso

Danny Gilmore's newest mailer attacks "Liberal Fran Florez ... Just Another Politician." And it lists four things wrong with her. And it cites sources!

She billed taxpayers for her husband's dinners. Source: Shafter City Council records. (My rating: technically true, but lacking a lot of context.)

She has taken lots of money from gambling and casino interests. Source: Secretary of State.

She's said she'll raise taxes, but she also one said she wouldn't. Source: A Fresno TV station and blog.

And here's the good one:

She's opposed by Nicole Parra and "the overwhelming majority of our Assembly District's local elected leaders. Source: Gilmore for Assembly website."

Seriously? You're going to cite your own Web site?

— James Geluso

We've created an online map for people to show where their campaign sign has been mangled or stolen.

Have you been a victim? Add it here.

There's also been a good discussion of sign thievery earlier on this blog.

I have done some poking around, and I am pretty sure that Florez-Gilmore in the 30th District is the most expensive Assembly race in the state — although the data is kind of old.

As of Sept. 30, the two candidates had taken in $3.3 million, according to the Secretary of State. There are individual candidates who have taken in more than Fran Florez's 1.8 million — Block in AD 78 has $1.9 million, Perez is AD 80 has $2.1 million — but no pair of candidates with as much money poured in as AD 30.

In fact, I'll throw out a hypothesis that I'm not going to take time to verify — AD 30 candidates have taken in more money than in any single race for the lower house of a state legislature anywhere. If you have any information about where I can find one that's got more dollars, I'd love to see it. (Some Googling turned up the most expensive races in other states, but they were adorably small numbers.)

BTW, as of a few days ago, Florez's money was 80 percent from the party, and Gilmore's was 60 percent from the party.

— James Geluso

I love this L.A. Times electoral map and calculator. You can predict how each state will go Nov. 4 and see what the end result would be.

Let's play now and share the result. Then after election night we can see how right we were.

When I play I go with what the L.A. TImes has now (with one exception) then make:

• Indiana red

• Ohio blue

• West Virginia red

• North Carolina red (though I was just there and saw Obama stuff EVERYWHERE)

• Florida red (just to be generous. Times says leaning blue; I have no idea)

• Colorado red

My end result: Obama 302, McCain 236

The company has donated more than $27,500 to the effort to ban same-sex marriage in California, according to Political Watch Central Coast.fe-sex

It has stores on the Central Coast and in Bakersfield. You can read the piece here.

Does this make you more or less likely to shop at the natural foods store?

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Kern County's elections chief had to ask a radio station Wednesday to quit misleading the public about when to vote.

County elections got more than 15 calls after Jaz McKay reportedly recycled the old voter suppression tactic of announcing that turnout is expected to be so high that Republicans are being urged to vote Nov. 4 and Democrats Nov. 5.

Election Day is Nov. 4.

Elections chief Sandy Brockman called KNZR 1560 AM management to ask that McKay stop putting out the bogus information. Management said it would

A message left for McKay this morning was not immediately returned.

The theft of campaign signs — not including thievery conducted by radio talk jocks — is a pretty routine aspect of any political season.

But local leaders from both presidential campaigns and the activists on both sides of the Prop. 8 ban on same-sex marriage are reporting massive thefts this year.

Whole neighborhoods seem to be disappearing overnight.

Republicans are reporting 1,000 stolen signs. Democrats said one-third of their Obama signs have been yanked.

And No on Prop. 8 and Yes on 8 signs have been snatched defaced and destroyed.

Has anyone out there in blog-world been a victim?

The Fresno Bee has an interesting column on the 30th District race.

Democrat Fran Florez and Republican Danny Gilmore say they'll represent the 30th District in an independent way that puts the Valley's needs ahead of partisan politics. But here's the truth about both of them: Florez will do whatever the Democratic leadership tells her to do or she won't get good committee assignments or a nice office. Gilmore will do whatever the Republican leadership tells him to do or he'll be an outcast in the minority party in the Legislature and won't get support the next time around.

Meanwhile, you can still read our coverage of the hit piece mailers, a fact-check of the "chief's disease" allegations, and take a look at the mailers yourself.

Newspapers around the country are making their presidential endorsements.

(The Californian's is due out this Sunday; all its endorsements are scheduled to be published by next Thursday).

Here's a rundown of who's siding with whom. Please add ones you've found as well.

— Christine Bedell, government team leader

Los Angeles TImes for Obama

Boston Herald for McCain

San Francisco Examiner for McCain

St. Louis Post-Dispatch for Obama

Washington Post for Obama

Editor and Publisher says Obama's widening his lead in newspaper endorsements. It's keeping track here.

Hysterical stand-ups by Barack Obama and John McCain at a charity event Thursday night are must sees!

Both poked fun of themselves and others at the swanky New York City event.

My favorite part is Obama talking about him palling around with a shady crowd — the U.S. Senate. And him seeing McCain at some of their meetings.

Here they are on You Tube.

Stay up late or set your TIVOs! Politico says aides have confirmed Sarah Palin will do Saturday Night Live this weekend — the event we've all been waiting for.

There aren't many details out. The show's host will be Josh Brolin, who's starring in the new Olive Stone movie "W."

Here's Politico's blog post.

In case you don't watch TV, or have satellite without local channels, the Fresno Bee has posted a couple of ads starring Nicole Parra from the Florez/Gilmore campaign.

We may not be in a swing state, but at least we have a swing district!

John McCain's most memorable assault on Barak Obama's growing lead in the presidential race may come to be called the "Plumber Gambit"

He repeatedly attacked Obama's tax plan using "Joe the Plumber" — Joe Wurzelbacher of Ohio — who Obama talk to at a rally. Joe owns a business he believes Obama's tax plan will hurt.

See the exchange here.

The question is, will McCain's attacks convince independent voters in crucial swing states to swing his way?

CNN polling after last night's debate showed Democrats and Independents gave the debate to Obama.

What do folks here in Kern Land think?

As we head into tonight's final debate, CBS/NYT has released the results of a poll. (20-page pdf)

76 percent of Obama voters think their guy won the debate. But only 32 percent of McCain voters think their guy won.

And tonight, 75 percent of Obama voters expect a win for their candidate, while only 44 percent of McCain voters expect their guy to win.

Overall, 47 percent of all voters expect Obama to win tonight, and 19 percent expect McCain to win tonight.

There are plenty of other interesting insights. For example, it appears in this poll that Sarah Palin has caused more people to have a worse opinion of McCain than better.

The L.A. TImes shows Barack Obama up 50 percent to 41 percent over John McCain, a widening attributed to the bad economy.

Here's the story.

What do you think: Can McCain turn things around and win? If so, how?

Sure, the real thing is tomorrow night, but CSUB's event tonight could be more entertaining. Local Democrat Uduak Ntuk and Republican Scott Raab will speak on behalf of their candidates. The event is scheduled for 5-8 p.m. — three full hours! — and neither is likely to be as scripted as the real thing. And hopefully the moderator will be better than Tom Brokaw.

The event, sponsored by the ASB, is in the MPR (which I assume stands for Multi-Purpose Room) in the Student Union. According to this map, it looks like you want to take Stockdale Highway and then Don Hart Drive East and head south to the end of the road, and then a little more south. It's building 53 on the map.

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The Los Angeles Times reports today that an animal welfare group has released an undercover video of egg-laying hens being mistreated to rally support for Proposition 2.

The measure would require  that caged animals be given enough space to stand up, sit down and spread their limbs. In California, it would mainly apply to the egg production industry. Hens are typically housed six or eight to a cage with each bird alloted an amount of space similar to a sheet of letter paper.

Opponents of the proposition say it would force the egg industry out of California. They defend the caging practices as humane.

Sorry for the late notice but we just received this info ourselves:

Seven candidates for three Delano City Council seats will participate in a forum at 6 p.m. tonight at the Civic Center, 1009 11th Ave.

The candidates are: Grace Vallejo, Sam Ramirez, Joe Aguirre, Joey Alindajao, Roger Gadiano, Claudia Villalobos and Ricardo Chavez.

Vallejo and Ramirez are running as incumbents.

The 30th District Assembly race is getting ugly.

If you don't live in the 30th, or just were unlucky, here are the ads! First, there's the trade council's attack on Gilmore, followed by Gilmore's attack on Florez. Both are three-page .pdfs. The trade council ad is a fold-out, which is why there's a weird line down the center on page 2.

 Update: Fran Florez has posted this statement on her Web site:

My campaign is about issues that impact people's lives.  And there is no issue more important than jobs.  Danny Gilmore's pension is not an issue.  As far as I am concerned, Mr. Gilmore earned his pension.  I do take exception to the fact that because he is retired, Danny doesn't seem to understand that his continued opposition to the jobs that High Speed Rail can bring now is wrong.  I am asking all of my supporters to stay focused on the economic issues that threaten families... bringing unemployment down and bringing wages up.

The upcoming November Presidential Election has driven Kern County voter registration above the 300,000 point for the first time in history, said Kern County Elections Chief Sandy Brockman Monday.

Currently registration sits at 300,307 voters — up from 287,672 before the June primary elections.

Voters have until October 20 to register for this historic election.

Brockman is expecting record voter turn out — above 80 percent.

"I'd expect this will be the biggest turnout Kern County has ever had," Brockman said.

Cheers for democracy!

There's an interesting story on Politico featuring Democratic strategists licking their chops over an Obama landslide scenario, based on Americans' negative feelings about President Bush and the economy.

It's not because of anything the Obama team has done — it's an external "tsunami" sweeping voters away from McCain.

One strategist says McCain blew his chance — he should have come out strong against the bailout plan, thereby linking Obama to Bush.

Anyway, it'll be interesting to see if McCain can turn the tide of the "tsunami" in the coming days and weeks.

A group of Californian newsroom staffers gathered around a TV after deadline. (We can't all make it by 6, so we go where the DVR can be put on pause until we're all there, along with the pizza, wings, beer and bingo cards.)

We decided that Joe Biden won the debate, but Sarah Palin put in a solid performance that stanched the bleeding, and she may even give the McCain campaign a small bounce in the polls. Both had moments. The rest of the thing was script.

We watched the CNN feed, which had a focus group graph running at the bottom. Biden's line for women got to the very top four or five times, but Palin couldn't drive it up. Aside from her winks and "Ya, knows" she often spoke woodenly into the camera.

Biden was more free-flowing, but that style resulted in a couple moments when he mispoke his attacks on McCain or fumbled sentences.

Among the strongest moments was Biden's tear-up near the end, where he simultaneously tugged heartstrings like the lead actor in a chick flick and made a stand for manhood.

"You had me at >sniffle< Joe."

Sarah Palin couldn't — or didn't want to — answer a question about her own Achilles' heel. She dove back into her oil barrel for that one. And at one point in the debate, according to ABC News, she put words in McCain's mouth he didn't want there. Oops.

But the news crew agreed that, in this highly controlled, well-scripted environment, she did much to repair the damage her image and McCain's campaign took after her bumbled meetings with Katie Couric. 

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Not only can you vote on the winner at our daily poll on the homepage, but you can discuss the debate here.

From published reports I've read this morning, Palin did a decent job allaying voter's fears that she's not a complete moron, while Biden actually connected with the voters by choking up about his time has a single dad.

Substance? Like most debates there was barely any.

"So how surprising was it, really, that neither candidate devolved into a Jerry Springer screaming fit or fell into a state of catatonia?" asked LA Times.

"Palin changed her image overnight," says Weekly Standard.

"Palin scored points but didn't win," says Newsweek.

"Attitude and image vs. facts and focus," says Baltimore Sun.

"Rivals shine, Palin a bit more brightly," says Boston Globe.

— Andrew Mockett

Countdowns are running on the bottom of the 24-hour cable news networks and 3,000 media credentials have been submitted to cover tonight's vice-presidential debate.

This story from Politico.com explains the keen interest:

With all their potential for pitfalls and insta-classic moments, the pair has made the build up to the showdown, to take place here Thursday night at Washington University, feel more like a NASCAR race than a serious political forum: the audience may be tuning in as much in anticipation of cringe-inducing pile-ups as they are to watch the typical parry-and-thrust of debate.

I noticed something in the Fran Florez and Danny Gilmore ads on TV.

Just by watching the ads, you’d never know which party each is in.

It’s ironic, because the reason there’s so much money involved is the partisan nature of the race. Democrats want to keep the seat as part of their march to the two-thirds majority; Republicans are trying to stop them.

Check out both their Web sites. Fran Florez admits being a Democrat only in some text near the bottom, where she admits that “she received the Woman of the Year award from the Democratic Central Committee of Kern County.” Danny Gilmore doesn’t mention his party at all.

The 30th District race is rated No. 1 by the California Target Book, a political guidebook. I took a look at the other six top races to see who’s willing to admit they belong to a party.

Here’s something else I noticed: When you put a candidate name and “Assembly” into Google, the site description that comes up does list the party in most cases, even when the site itself hides their affiliation.

• No. 2: AD-80, Democrat Manuel Perez vs. Republican Gary Jeandron
Manuel Perez’s site says Democrat right up top. Gary Jeandron doesn’t use the word Republican anywhere on the front page.

• No. 3: AD-78, Democrat Marty Block vs. Republican John McCann
Marty Block doesn’t use “Democrat” in his logo, but makes many references to his party in the text of his page. John McCann doesn’t use the word Republican anywhere on the front page

• No. 4: AD-15, Democrat Joan Buchanan vs. Republican Abram Wilson
Buchanan doesn’t mention belonging to a party. Abram Wilson says he’s “respected by Democrats & Republicans,” but won’t say which he is.

• No. 5: AD-26, Democrat John Eisenhut vs. Republican William Berryhill
John Eisenhut doesn’t say Democrat, and Bill Berryhill doesn’t say Republican

• No. 6: AD-10, Democrat Alyson Huber vs. Republican Jack Sieglock
Alyson Huber doesn’t say she’s a Democrat. Jack Sieglock makes his ideology clear, but doesn't use the R-word.

No. 7: AD-37, Democrat Ferial Masry vs. Republican Audra Strickland (incumbent)
Ferial Masry makes references to being a Democrat, but Audra Strickland doesn’t have a campaign site that I could find.

— James Geluso