The long-range artillery fest that has been the Women's World Cup is down to three games left, and only two that really matter. I won't say who won the Germany-Norway semifinal, but, well, it's over.

In order to win, the USA essentially has to win two finals: its semifinal against Brazil, a rematch of the 2004 Olympic final (USA won 1-0 in OT IIRC) and then the final proper. Greg Ryan is benching keeper Hope Solo, who backstopped the USA through the group stage and the England quarterfinal, in favor of the immeasurable experience of Brianna Scurry. But in doing that, is he going to lessen the defense-keeper communication that has been built over the last four games? It's a huge risk, but he apparently thinks it will pay off.

I've been too busy watching the games, usually late at night, to blog about them, alas. It's been great, though, especially the sheer number of long-range stunners, either high lobs (such as a goal in this Germany-Norway game) and just straight rockets into the back of the net from 20, 25, 30 yards out.

(Also, I know I said I wasn't going to talk about club soccer in this blog, but the ESPN ticker is saying Ronaldinho to Chelsea. WOW. But will it work? Or is Chelsea going to be the new Galacticos?)

16 teams, four groups, and a series of confounding scheduling choices by FIFA... it can only be the Women's World Cup!

Let me warn you now: This, like the '02 men's cup, is on the other side of the Pacific, so games are played in our early-morning hours. ESPN is airing games live and then again in the afternoon. I will use the [R] symbol -- the universal Internet code for "Result" -- to denote games I'm about to spoil. However, if a game is more than 20 hours old, no such protection. And in most cases (like today) I'm not going to be posting about games until about 16 hours after they're played, and please by all that's holy about the round ball don't spoil anything for me. I know I'm putting out troll-bait here, but the truth is I've had events from the 2004 Olympics, 2006 Olympics and 2006 World Cup spoiled for me, and I can barely even work up the rage to declare death sentences anymore.

Some general comments first, then to the first match, Germany-Argentina.

There was a really good piece on the wire the other day, I think from a USA Today columnist, who pointed out one key reason the '99 WWC was a success: timing. It was in June and July, that open time when baseball is approaching midseason, and the major European soccer leagues are on their summer breaks. There was plenty of room in the American and international sports markets for a World Cup to shine through. Four years later, the WWC was scheduled for September in China, but SARS forced a last-minute relocation to the USA. Up against late-season baseball and the opening of college and pro football in the USA, and the opening of the European leagues, it got little attention. Now, with the 2007 event automatically given to China (as consolation for the 2003 resked), we're in September again. It's a shame, because Americans in 2002 showed they'll put up with time differences and in 1999 showed they'll follow the women at a big event. ESPN is giving the tournament all the TV time it deserves, but people only have so much time, and whether it's Chelsea or the Chiefs, Barça or da Bears, their full-time football is going to occupy their time and attention.

So anyway, game 1. It had two 1s in the scoreline, but not the normal way. Germany PASTED Argentina, whose keeper scored TWO own-goals while conceding TWO hat-tricks and THREE other goals for a grand total of ELEVEN put past her. In my opinion, the best goal was the second, a free kick from the midfield line near the sideline that fell near the 18-yard line, where it didn't even hit the ground, struck instead by a foot that put it to the back of the net.

Game 2 is the USA vs. North Korea. I saw North Korea play in the '99 World Cup. I had to look up their opponent (Denmark) and the score (KDPR 3:1 Den) but there's one thing burned into my memory: a North Korean player came off in the first half and sat not on the bench, but on the ground next to it. During halftime, when the rest of the bench went into the locker room, she stayed and sat there, and all through the second half, getting up with the rest of the team only at the end of the game. That on top of all the normal weirdness one expects when North Korea is mentioned -- the ferris wheel at the Chinese border, kcna.co.jp -- was just creepy.

Anyway, three weeks of a half-size World Cup! Hooray!

Wednesday brings us 42 friendlies and six co-called competitive games. But let's look past the somewhat-less-than-titanic Cyprus-San Marino fixture to the games that will draw our attention (and are on TV here).

The USA is going to Sweden. The press is talking about whether Landon Donovan will break out of his tie to become the US's all-time leading scorer. That's an inevitability, so frankly I don't care much if it happens this week. What I care about is whether Bob Bradley can field a competitive team on European soil. The US record in Europe is dismal, so a tie or even a narrow loss against Sweden (consistently good from their 1958 finals loss to Pele's Brazil to their 1994 third-place finish to their second-round finish in 2006) would be an encouraging sign after the disaster that was the Copa America.

The match that will draw the world's attention is England-Germany in the new Wembley Stadium. Wembley was England's national stadium, where England beat Germany in the 1966 final, and where England lost to Germany in the Euro 1996 semifinals. Plus, you know, the countries kind of have a political/military history, which makes England-Germany one of the biggest rivalries in the sport (I'd call it #3, after Brazil-Argentina and England-Argentina). Also, this player David Beckham you may have heard of has made the trip.

On to the big news! On Saturday, on an island in the South Pacific, World Cup qualifying begins! Saturday will feature four of what my back-of-the-envelope math says will be 858 matches to weed almost every country on Earth down to a field of 31 to join host South Africa. A bunch of countries that are better at rugby will compete to see which three of them have the privilege of trying to deny New Zealand the privilege of taking on Asia's fifth-place team. Yes, World Cup qualifying is that convoluted. The first games featuring teams that might actually qualify start on Sept. 8, when South America starts its marathon (each team playing 18 matches over the next two and a half years, and that's on top of the players' August-to-May weekly or more games for their club teams). We don't actually get involved until next summer, after some of the smaller island nations in our region (think Antigua and Netherlands Antilles) get weeded out.

While our little corner of the big blue-and-green soccer ball has been focused on the celebrity aspects of the game, there have been some real big things happening elsewhere.

Iraq has been on a run in the Asian Cup, using two draws and a 3-1 win over 2006 World Cup team Australia to make it into the quarterfinals. A 2-0 win over Vietnam there, and a semifnal win in penalty-kicks over World Cup regular (and 2002 fourth-placer at home) South Korea, and now Iraq faces Saudi Arabia in the final.

A run like this ought to be a great unifying moment for a country riven by sectarian violence, but the celebrations so far have presented target-rich environments to the (expletive deleted) who set off car bombs.

I have no idea if Iraq's miracle run will bring them a win. Saudi Arabia is historically strong, but much of their strength is at home, and this game is in Jakarta. A 3-2 semifinal win over Japan makes Saudi Arabia look good too.

Separately, Partizan Belgrade, one of Serbia's top teams, has been thrown out of the UEFA Cup (which is Europe's second continental competition for club teams that aren't quite good enough for the Champions League). Belgrade beat Bosnian team Zrinjski 6-1, and Belgrade's supporters beat 28 Bosnian police officers. This is hardly surprising; World Cup qualfiers between Bosnia and Serbia were loaded with tension, and only some of it on the pitch.

UEFA is making efforts to end fan violence. There's one obvious solution: stop scheduling games between teams in countries that were at war just a decade ago. But that's complicated. These teams were drawn together randomly, and these things will happen. One of my favorite things about soccer is that these competitions are fair and random; any favors are earned on the field, not off it. But maybe it is time for FIFA and UEFA to think about political considerations, the same way that South Africa was banned for decades and Israel plays in Europe instead of Asia.

Brazil pulled out big plays for a big win over Argentina Sunday. The 3-0 scoreline is a lot more convincing than the game itself. Pull back the unfortunate own-goal and nudge the post rattler an inch to the right and it's just a 2-1 game. However, the woulda coulda shouldas count as much in soccer as they do in every other sport. I'm sure Argentina will use this as a motivator for their next two matches over the next two years, which in all likelihood will be World Cup qualifiers.

I've been reading the Beckham coverage here and there, and there isn't a better piece than Nancy Armour's piece the Californian ran Sunday. In short: Beckham isn't going to meet the expectations of the optimists, nor the pessimists. It's the downers that drive me craziest; they claim that Beckham will not make soccer the top sports in America, therefore he'll fail. That's a strawman expectation held by no one but the ditziest Hollywood entertainment reporters. Pele, the '94 World Cup, the '99 Women's World Cup: they all converted small numbers of non-fans into fans. (For me, it was July 4, 1994, USA-Brazil.) At this point, we have a first-division league in its 12th season, and the guy who scored the first goal in the league's history is playing in the fourth division. Beckham will convert some Eurosnobs into people who'll watch MLS, and some non-soccer people into soccer people. Worth the money? Maybe.

Meanwhile, over in Asia, Iraq won its group with a stunning 3-1 win over Australia, which is probably rueing the day it decided to move to Asia.* That sets up Iraq vs. Vietnam in the quarterfinal, which I'd say Iraq stands a chance at because the game will be in Thailand, not Vietnam. I'm curious whether this is a fluke or Iraq will be  serious competitor for a World Cup berth. I'm sure a Cote D'Ivoire miracle is too much to hope for, but a solid run by the team sure couldn't hurt. Also in Asia, South Korea is at the bottom of its group with a game to go after it lost to Bahrain. It now faces Indonesia in Jakarta and needs a win, and for Saudi Arabia to beat Bahrain.

*See, Australia was in Oceania, and it won that confederation's half-berth to the World Cup almost every time. But half a berth means a playoff with the other helf-berth holder. They lost on away goals to Iran in 1997, then lost a tight one to Uruguay in 2001, before deciding they'd had enough and wanted to jump to Asia, which has 4.5 berths. That decision was finalized in 2005, before the end of 2006 qualifying. Australia had to play Uruguay again and won on penalty kicks to play in their first World Cup since 1974. Next time, they'll play in Asia, where I think the competition is going to be stiffer than they'll expect, but at least it won't be a two-game series that knocks them out. Probably.

Last year, Argentina beat Mexico with one fantastic goal.

This year, Argentina used two fantabulous goals.

The first was a long free kick that soared over the wall and seemed to be heading well away from the goal, until an Argentine player ghosted in with a high jumping kick to deflect the ball into the goal. It was an instant classic.

The second was a simple, beautiful chip from outside the 18 that arced up and over.

Mexico played well and threatened with an early attack on a great midfield steal. But every one-on-one saw Argentina dance deftly around, away from or through Mexico.

That sets up the superclasico final, Brazil v. Argentina, with Brazil advancing on penalities after a 2-2 draw with Uruguay that didn't go to extra time, apparently because of a 15-minute delay in the first half when the stadium lights went out.

Uruguay plays Mexico in the third-place game Saturday. I don't expect either team to be motivated. The final on Sunday should be fantastic.

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By the way, in Asia, Saudi Arabia tied South Korea 1-1. Australia and Japan both could muster only 1-1 draws against Oman and Qatar, respectively. The Asian Cup is going to be very interesting.

 

I was mostly busy with other stuff, so I missed the one-sided thrashings that were the Copa America quarterfinals. The results were no surprise, but the scorelines certainly were: 6-0 for Brazil, 6-1 for Mexico.

But the semifinals... these are going to be great matches, just because of the history.

Perhaps the best match of the 2006 World Cup, yes, just last year, was Argentina vs. Mexico. Mexico took the lead, but Argentina equalized to send it to overtime, where Maxi Rodriguez scored the goal of the tournament to send Argentina to the quarterfinals. The game was good enough that some promoter organized rematches in the U.S. this year for profit, but this game, no friendly, this will be the rematch. That's Wednesday's game.

Tuesday, the history is deeper. American soccer fans like to think of 1950 as the World Cup where we beat England. But the rest of the world remembers it for the final match, where Uruguay stunned Brazil in front of an estimated 200,000 fans in the Maracana (it sounds impossible, but think of what safety standards were like in 1950 in Brazil) in Rio de Janeiro. It was the last great strike for the country that dominated international soccer in the first half of the 20th Century, and no Uruguayan will ever forget it. Brazil looks past Uruguay to Argentina for their rival, but Uruguay looks at Brazil. The Uruguayans will want this. Brazil is, like in 1950, heavily favored, but could get caught looking past them to the final.

This poll at CopaAmerica.com, http://www.copaamerica.com/... , shows how far Brazil is favored. 87 percent of fans expect Brazil to advance, but Argentina has only a slight edge over Mexico. The passion will ignite for these games, no doubt about it.

Across the Pacific, Asia is just starting up its championships, which, interestingly, are being held in four separate countries -- Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia. The dual-hosting of the World Cup was... well, not a disaster, but had issues. Hosts automatically qualify, so having the World Cup in both Japan and South Korea meant two spots to them, and then the rest of Asia demanded even more, threatening what would have been the first boycott over berth allocation since 1966, when Asia and Africa were given a combined one spot, and all the African countries boycotted. It worked well enough for Euro 2000, apparently, because Europe is doing it again in 2008, which I guess is okay because there are no politics in assigning berths. Anyway, I'm way off topic here.

Asia has four groups. Three are straightforward, with one recent World Cup team: Australia (which just moved from Oceania) heads Group A, Japan Group B, Iran Group C. Group D is where it gets interesting: Saudi Arabia and South Korea, who've both appeared in the last four World Cups (something not many countries can claim), plus Bahrain, which narrowly lost a playoff against Trinidad and Tobago for a 2006 berth. Barring major upsets, the first three groups are not worth paying attention to, but Group D, and the quarterfinals they're drawn into, will be fascinating to watch. ROK vs. KSA is Tuesday.

Mexico only needed a draw to advance in first place, and they didn't try very hard for a win. AFP reports they and Chile were booed off the field. Mexico does that when it can afford to, like that game against Italy in the '02 World Cup.

But the point for Chile puts them at 4 points and third place. Uruguay was already at 4 points and third place. The United States could beat Colombia 31-0 and it wouldn't be enough; three points is less than four, so we'll play a meaningless game (Colombia is in the same boat as us) and go home. I'm an endless USA fan -- mi pais, mi equipo -- but I don't think I'll bother watching. Paraguay-Argentina has a lot more potential to be interesting. Loser plays Mexico in the quarters. Winner plays Mexico in the semis. Mexico isn't going to bore anyone in those games.

The loss Monday night to Paraguay was not as bad as I feared, except for that horrible backpass/giveaway that led to Paraguay's second goal. Well, we all make mistakes, and this is a young team that we can all hope and pray does that in 2007 so it doesn't in 2010.

The U.S. is not eliminated; with a win against Colombia and some help, we can earn a fourth game, in which we will be crushed in a matter not unlike when Andorra plays World Cup qualifiers against England, or like we squashed Barbados back in the 2002 cycle.

Here's what needs to happen for us to progress as one of the top two third-place teams.  Uruguay already has the Group A third-place spot with 4 points and a goal differential of -2. First, we need Brazil to beat Ecuador and Mexico to beat Chile, locking both of them down. Chile, with one game remaining, is at 3 and -1. We are at 0 and -5. So as long as Mexico beats Chile and we beat Colombia by a combined margin of 5 goals or more, we get to play Venezuela in the quarterfinals.

Mexico has an incentive to beat Chile, because they want to win their group and thus avoid a game against the Group C winner, which will be the winner of Paraguay-Argentina, so probably Argentina.

By the way, if you think a potential USA-Venezuela match has political overtones, you should see Paraguay-Argentina. Paraguay has a long history of immigrants to Argentina, where they are treated poorly, at least according to Jose Luis Chilavert, Paraguay's most famous player, who had a long career in the Argentine and was very outspoken about the issue. (A similar conflict between El Salvador and Honduras was the underlying issue behind the "Soccer War," which was sparked by a soccer game but was about soccer as much as the U.S. Civil War was about ownership of Fort Sumter.) And Paraguay and Argentina are soccer countries, where the United States and Venezuela are not.

With a 2-1 win over Ecuador Sunday, after last week's upset over Brazil, it would take a bizarre series of events for Mexico not to advance in the Copa America. Of course, advancing is not enough; Mexico wants to win the group and play a weak team in the quarterfinals. But the way Mexico has been playing, that shouldn't be hard. Mexico has looked sharp in those two matches, and it should be no problem to get the necessary draw against Chile on July 4.

Nery Castillo has to be the early favorite for MVP of the tournament.