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Week 8 HS football predictions
Things are getting serious in the Fresno-Edison grade-changing case. The school district has asked Central Section commissioner Jim Crichlow to re-investigate the matter, which concerns a teacher's allegation that a player's grade in a math class was changed from an F to an A. Crichlow's first investigation cleared Edison, but the school district hasn't yet finished its own probe. If anyone finds wrongdoing, I'd imagine the consequences would be severe — Clovis East has lost the chance to host playoff games after a much less serious offense — and it could affect the Central Section's Division II playoff picture. We'll keep you posted. Back on the field, it's time for a look back to Week 7 predictions: The Good: Just about everything, from taking North and Bakersfield Christian in the big games to nailing Highland winning a defensive battle to going 5-1 in Southern Section games The Bad: Failing to see that this was indeed the week Ridgeview would spring its upset, still having faith in Centennial The Ugly: Picking Lighthouse Christian to become Lit-Up Christian and then seeing the Guardians handle Clovis Christian in a bizarre game that hasn't officially been decided yet Thursday, Oct. 30 Friday, Oct. 31 TEHACHAPI (3-4, 1-1 SSL) AT TAFT (6-1, 2-0) — An elimination game for the Warriors, who came up on the short end of another close game last week. They nearly erased a 34-7 deficit against Bakersfield Christian only to lose 40-35. But Taft won't make things easy with its punishing offensive and defensive lines. Win or lose, the Wildcats will be in this race until the season finale at home against BCHS, though a win would likely make both teams undefeated. But I think Tehachapi, which has lost games by 6, 1, 2 and 5 points, finally gets a close one to fall its way with the aid of a new-found passing attack. HIGHLAND (6-1, 2-1) AT FOOTHILL (4-3, 1-2) — Tim Hartnett's team has done nearly everything it could do in the first seven games of the year, with a loss to Garces in a Saturday game the only blemish. But now comes the gauntlet: at Foothill, vs. Liberty, vs. Bakersfield. The Scots' defense hasn't held up well in only a couple of games this year, but Foothill has the horses to make this another. Highland won't be able to keep up. DELANO (5-2, 2-1 EYL) AT TULARE UNION (7-0, 3-0) — I invite you to turn your attention north for a few minutes, while we discuss what is a rare specimen in the Central Section this year: an undefeated team. By my count, only six remain, and the Redskins are the only in the top two divisions. What does that mean for Delano? The Tigers had better bring their A game, not whatever it was that caused losses to Hanford West and Porterville, and even that might not be enough. Keep Tulare's offense off the field and don't turn the ball over, and you might have a chance. Otherwise, it's victim No. 8 for the machinelike 'Skins. GARCES (5-2) AT WEST (3-4) — The Vikings might be the team that costs me the most games throughout the season. It seems like they're in the "Bad" category for my picks every week, and it's because I just can't figure this team out. But who could? Hang with El Diamante. Lose to East. Beat Liberty. Get knocked out by Frontier and North. Turn around to dominate the second half against Centennial. What happens this week, nobody knows. I will say, though, Garces has been much more consistent. (Well duh). BAKERSFIELD (5-2, 3-0 SEYL) AT GOLDEN VALLEY (3-4, 1-3) — We talk about this at length in the Week 8 podcast (which you can catch at School House Zach on Thursday afternoon), but how is the Drillers' closing schedule going to affect their playoff run? BHS played Liberty in Week 4 and won't play a D-I team — or likely receive a challenge, for that matter — until the playoffs hit. I think the increased confidence will help, fueled by wins like this one, where BHS will look to shut down Golden Valley's multi-faceted attack. FRONTIER (4-3, 2-1 SWYL) AT SOUTH (3-4, 1-2) — It's back to the drawing board for both teams after they lost chances last week to have a season-defining win. That's especialy the case for South, which hung with North early but couldn't keep pace. Either way, if these teams want to play more important games down the stretch, a win here is a must. A loss, and the season could fade quickly. LIBERTY (4-3, 2-1 SEYL) AT EAST (1-6, 0-4) — With three games left in what's been a terribly frustrating season for the Blades, it'll be interesting to see if they can make any headway towards 2009. East has scored a grand total of 26 points in its last four games (and only 73 all together) and has games with BHS and North, the two league leaders, in the final two weeks. Ouch, because Liberty's defense is even better than those teams. Looks like 2009 might really be the rallying cry already. CENTENNIAL (1-6, 0-3 SWYL) AT RIDGEVIEW (2-5, 1-3) — This probably would have been the week I'd take Ridgeview to spring for its first SWYL victory in two years — except that happened last week. Now you wonder about the Wolf Pack's complacency, plus I'm starting to wonder if Centennial will ever get it together. I went with Centennial winning and Ridgeview losing last week and got burned, and I'm not putting my hand next to the burner again. SHAFTER (1-6, 0-2 SSL) AT BAKERSFIELD CHRISTIAN (6-1, 2-0) — One of the mismatches of the year in that Shafter tries to play a similar style to BCHS but does so with less precision and less good old-fashioned talent. If you hadn't heard, this Carr kid is pretty good. The Central Section record for passing yards is 520, says section historian Bob Barnett, and if he plays all four quarters of a close game, Carr could threaten that one of these weeks. WASCO (3-4, 0-2) AT ARVIN (3-4, 1-1) — Is this the battle for fourth place in the South Sequoia League? That depends. Arvin still has games left with Tehachapi and Bakersfield Christian to move up, but the Bears have to take care of business with the offensively-dangerous Tigers first. If the game was in Wasco, I might pull the trigger on an upset here. But Arvin it is. LATON (0-7, 0-2 ESL) AT McFARLAND (2-5, 1-1) — Here's what I know about Laton: (1) Its nickname is the Mustangs. (2) It's not as good as the Stockdale Mustangs. (3) It's not as good as the Mojave Mustangs. (3) It scored 20 points just once this year, and that was exactly 20. (4) It hasn't given up less than 31 all year. McFarland isn't the best team around, but you can bet the Cougars have enough firepower for this one. ROSAMOND (2-6, 1-1 HDL) AT DESERT (6-2, 1-1) — On paper, this doesn't look like much of a matchup, but consider that two weeks ago, Desert lost 19-16 to Frazier Mountain, the same team Rosamond blanked 22-0 last weekend. Plus, Terrance Wells' status is unknown. The difference, I think, is that the Scorpions have figured out what to do even without him, as evidenced by a win against Kern Valley last week. BISHOP (2-4, 1-0 HDL) AT KERN VALLEY (3-4, 0-1) — Just from talking to him a couple of times, I have faith in Ben Goffinett as a coach and a motivator, and it's about time the Broncs got themselves a big victory out at the lake. MARICOPA (2-5, 1-1 CVL) AT CUYAMA VALLEY (3-3, 2-1) — Don't underestimate the Indians, who look like they matchup more favorably with Cuyama than some might have thought before the season. But I don't think Maricopa is prepared to go west and come back with a victory. Saturday, Nov. 1 FRAZIER MOUNTAIN (3-4) AT MALIBU (6-1) — The other High Desert League teams, when they're the odd man out in the league schedule, normally take the week off. Not Frazier Mountain. The Falcons are taking the long trek out to treacherous ... Malibu?? Yeah, well, some of us vacation at home, some at the beach. Malibu plays in one of the nation's most beautiful high school locales, but that doesn't mean the Sharks are friendly hosts. MOJAVE (3-5) AT CLAREMONT-WEBB (3-3) — Since a 3-1 start, the Mustangs have fallen on hard times, dropping four in a row and falling out of the Southern Section divisional rankings and completely out of the playoff picture. With the team mired in no-man's land until it joins the Desert Mountain League next year, tonight offers a chance to get back on track, but even if Mojave can win, it's playing for pride only at this point. IMMANUEL CHRISTIAN (3-4, 1-2 HLL) AT BIG PINE (7-0, 3-0) — After two weeks off, the Crusaders travel to the Hi-Lo league leader for their second-to-last game. Last week: 16-4 (.800) Season: 116-48 (.707) 9 comments from 4 users
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posted by
Patrick319
on Oct 30, 2008 at 08:23 AM
I have NEVER seen a team as inconsistant as West. They beat one of the stronger teams in the valley in Liberty and then lost to the WEAKEST (at least among Yosemite League schools) in East. I think the term I've pinned them with is schizophrenic. For that VERY reason, I'd like to see them in the playoff seeding somewhere; just out of morbid curiosity. Who would have predicted Centennial being in the position they are in this year? This is school that last year was a Valley Semi Finalist. There has to be a handful of players from last years team. And the worst isn't over. Ridgeview will be a challenge coming off an emotional upset of Stockdale. And NEXT week they have North, who depending on what happens this week, could be coming in as SWYL champions already. Well, its evidence that every program goes through a rebuilding phase. Keep in mind what happens when new schools open. It dips into the talent pool of the neighboring schools. BHS and North did some rebuilding when Centennial oppenned. And now its Centennial's turn with Frontier on the scene. I would predict Frontier and South to be a closer game. These are two competitive, middle of the pack teams; the battle for third place in the SWYL. I agree with the North-Stockdale score, however turnovers and penalties can flip that score either way. This IS the game of the week! I posted to the Fresno Bee that BCHS deserves top 20 consideration in their rankings-especially if theyr are going to give CVC consideration. BCHS is, in my opinion, is the best of the non-public school teams in the valley. Their only loss was to that Oakridge(???) team where the game was upstaged by the fact that the visiting team bleachers looked like a celebrity fundraiser along with Will Smith landing his private helicopter on the BCHS baseball diamond. That loss aside, its been a magical year for BCHS. posted by
Project86er
on Oct 30, 2008 at 11:42 AM
Patrick, BCHS didn't have a helicopter land on it's baseball field, but it did play Oaks Christian this year, not Oakridge. To be exact Will and Jada strolled in with some kind of Uber-Bus with tinted windows. :) Just wanted to help you out. Also, I agree with you that BCHS should be in the CS top 20, easy. The Carr kid is the real deal and helps make the BCHS athletes shine. posted by
Patrick319
on Oct 30, 2008 at 01:07 PM
OK-imbellishment on my part and forgive me on the name...Oaksomethingorother. I was not at the game, but heard all kind of silly things obviously. I did hear that Joe Montana was there and none of the youngin's knew who the heck he was. I am very looking forward to seeing these two schools play in the future. I would even like to see a mini version of the Holy Bowl played between BCHS and Garces. That would draw a crowd. Carr is the real deal, no doubt. But what about that receiver of his...I can't recall the name, but he made that one-handed catch of the year last friday. BCHS will make noise come playoffs. Kudo's to Zach for recognizing them in the rankings...boo to the Fresno Bee for not. I haven't checked in the past few days, does the Fresno Bee have them rated now? posted by
Patrick319
on Oct 30, 2008 at 01:18 PM
Correction on my part...boy I'm off this week. The Fresno Bee has the Eagles ranked #13 on their top 20. Not bad for a D5 team. And they have them ranked #1 in the valley in D5. posted by
Patrick319
on Oct 31, 2008 at 07:58 AM
Ok, less than 12 hrs until kick off around the valley. Being a North alumni, I can barely control my enthusiasm. The first league title of the year may be decided tonight. Its been 14 years! Expect this to be a week for running games around the valley. The field's will likely be wet which tends to neutralize the passing game. So which teams run best between tackles? If it DOES rain tonight, those could be the teams that stay in their game. The only thing more fun than watching football on a wet field is trying to watch football played under a blanket of fog. More fun yet, watching the Wing-T played under a blanket of fog-when neither the officials, nor even players on the field can tell who has the ball. Camera men have a difficult time finding the ball in a Wing-T offense when its CLEAR. Fog can be a real possibility come playoffs. Cold weather makes the ball heavier. Weather affects everything in football. Tonight ought to be fun. posted by
zewing
on Oct 31, 2008 at 11:39 AM
Yeah, and for a guy trying to track stats, fog can screw everything up. So if it stays away, I'm not complaining. Then again, you're right; it'll make things fun and give them that traditional football feel. posted by
bryanjackson
on Nov 1, 2008 at 06:47 PM
Patrick- As for Centennial, I knew last year (and maybe as early as 2006) that 2008 wouldn't be a good year, at least for Centennial standards. (I'm a Centennial alum and a PROUD Centennial fan). My off-season prediction for this year was around 5-5. Never did I think my Golden Hawks would be 2-6 after beating Ridgeview (I'm posting a little late). As for BCHS, that Carr's numbers look really impressive. And I'll bet that the Eagles and the (Garces) Rams will play each other someday. Keep in mind that BCHS is still relatively new to 11-man football. I also wouldn't mind seeing BCHS play against Centennial or Liberty (Liberty and BCHS are literally right in each other's back yards). As for a game in a heavy fog, it may be fun for the players and cameramen, but I don't know that that would be fun for the fans in the stands. I went to the Centennial vs Reedley playoff game about 5 years ago and it was played in a heavy fog at Centennial. The fog was so thick I couldn't see the game and could barely see the Centennial players on the sidelines from the stands. It wasn't too fun for me. And that catch you're talking about was made by Jake Peterson. posted by
zewing
on Nov 1, 2008 at 07:53 PM
I'm thinking that BCHS is even closer to Stockdale than it is to Liberty. I'm not sure you'll see those games though, because Stockdale and Liberty would have nothing to gain and everything to lose from them. If a Division I team lost to a D-V, it would look terrible, even if it was a good D-V. If they beat them, it'd be expected. In fact, now that I think about it, that would be one reason Garces, a Div. II team, wouldn't want to play BCHS. Maybe if the Eagles become a D-IV or even D-III team one day, they'd consider it. But it's too much risk that you'd lose a game that could cripple your seed. posted by
bryanjackson
on Nov 2, 2008 at 08:25 AM
Why doesn't BCHS move up a division or two? They're certainly good enough to play in D-III or D-IV (and maybe even D-I or D-II in some sports).
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