The Major League Baseball first-year player draft begins in about half an hour, and when it does, the Washington Nationals will take San Diego State right-hander Stephen Strasburg with the first pick.

After that, it's anyone's guess. And one of the people with most invested in all that guessing is recent Stockdale graduate K.C. Hobson.

I've seen Hobson projected to go anywhere from a supplemental first-round pick (teams get extra picks between the first and second round in what's called the Sandwich Round if they lost a Type A free agent last offseason) all the way down to the fifth or sixth round.

If you'll excuse a quick MLB Draft primer, there are several reasons this is important for Hobson, whose dad, Butch, was a former MLB player and manager. Number one is money, plain and simple. The higher you get picked, the higher your slot value, i.e., the value MLB recommends teams give you as a signing bonus. They don't have to, but it's a safe bet that the number gets thrown around a lot in negotiations. MLB doesn't release slot-value numbers until after the draft starts, but first-rounders usually carry one of at least $1 million. Also, how high a player gets drafted also triggers the amount of lienency a club usually gives him. If a high-round draft pick struggles in the minor leagues, a team will give him every chance to prove himself or get better because they've got a lot of (a) money and (b) draft position invested in him.

The other reason draft position is important is because Hobson has a college scholarship waiting for him at Texas A&M, a good academic school with a rich baseball tradition. If he doesn't get drafted high enough, or isn't offered enough money, he has a great situation to fall back on. The downside to going to A&M is that players who choose to go to four-year schools must wait three years before they can re-enter the draft.

Where the magic spot is that Hobson wants to be drafted is known by only those close to him (disclosing it publicly could lose him some chips in negotiations), but we'll find out soon enough. The first three rounds of the draft are tonight (televised, starting at 3, on MLB Network). I think that if Hobson hears his name called this evening, he'll be a pro player. He makes no bones about the fact that he wants to follow in his dad's footsteps and become a pro as soon as possible. But — if he has to wait until tomorrow, it becomes more and more likely that he'll be a Texas A&M Aggie for the next three years. He'd at least have a big decision to make. Drafted players have till Aug. 15 to sign a deal with their pro organization.

Unlike the NFL or NBA Drafts, the baseball draft is incredibly hard to predict, so the only way to figure this one out is to wait and see. I'll update the blog when, or if, Hobson gets drafted tonight.