This is the time of year when upsets happen. That's because teams get worn out, or they try to get away with resting someone, something clicks for a teams that's been struggling, or someone notices a tendency on film. But it's also because of the way the Kern County schedule is set up. The biggest games, for the most part, are played early in the season — your Stockdale-Bakersfield, Garces-Tehachapi, Centennial-Liberty, etc. — and then the league season is set up with a couple of Division I teams in each league, a couple of D-IIs and a couple of D-IIIs. Those games are ripe for upsets because there's familiarity between the teams, too.

We saw it last week, when West tripped up Centennial. We saw it last year, when Bakersfield lost this same week to Golden Valley. For whom will the bell toll this week? It's a safe bet that someone will be upset, but since it's nearly impossible to predict who, I'll stick with picking mostly favorites. But keep your eyes open for that upset.

Looking back at last week's predictions:

The good: I took Taft to win its first road game at Wasco, Garces to end East's perfect SEYL season in a shootout and Stockdale to cruise by Ridgeview. Nailed toss-up games with Burroughs and South.

The bad: Margins were all off, especially with Taft. I missed toss-up games by failing to take Mira Monte, Shafter or Chavez.

The ugly: Totally didn't see that West upset coming, and looking back on it, the signs were all there. McFarland and Kennedy didn't stand a chance, and I had picked them both to win.

Thursday, Oct. 29
INDEPENDENCE (3-4, 2-1 SCSL) AT TULARE-MISSION OAK (1-6, 1-2) — The second half of round-robin play in the South Central Sequoia League begins. The first time around, just two weeks ago, the Falcons took apart their visitors from Tulare, 50-22. Any reason it should be different just 13 days later? Well, the Falcons couldn't be happy with a home loss to Mira Monte last week, and I think their lack of depth has hurt because of some key injuries. Still, there should be more than enough left for Independence to take care of business here, setting up a shot at a .500 season and a winning record in the last two weeks of the season.
Prediction: Independence 38, Mission Oak 17

Friday, Oct. 30
TAFT (6-1, 2-0 SSL) AT TEHACHAPI (6-1, 2-0) — I'm not completely ready to write Wasco off, but the winner of this game — especially if it's Taft, which has already played the Tigers — is in the catbird's seat in the SSL for sure. I was more impressed with the Wildcats last week than I was with Tehachapi when it beat Garces in Week 2, but it was close. And you've also got to consider the Warriors likely have significantly improved and that they're at home. There's something about that mountain mystique, and though the weather won't be bad (forecast is a low of 39 and clear), it will be loud, and Tehachapi doesn't often lose up there. Still, I got a feeling about the Wildcats last week — they've got a good team that has a chip on its shoulder ever since losing a controversial road game in Week 0 — and they're out for respect. Tehachapi will battle, no doubt, and both teams will go over 250 yards rushing, but in the end I think this is the year Taft goes up there and pulls out a victory.
Prediction: Taft 31, Tehachapi 30

TULARE UNION (7-0, 3-0 EYL) AT DELANO (6-1, 2-1) — There's been a lot of Delano fans clamoring for respect out there, and I have to admit that the Tigers have caught me by surprise this year. I thought the loss of a few key players like Mychal Quiddam, Amandeep Singh and Alex Cabalona would hurt enough to force Delano into a rebuilding year. That obviously hasn't happened, and here they are with a winning season already clinched and likely a fairly high Division III seed to come. And a league championship is still in play, at least until they kick off in The Jungle this Friday night. I think that dream is one that's going to end early in the game — Tulare Union is a different animal than anyone the Tigers have seen, and I think speed and size will be as overwhelming as it has been the past few years. Delano will hit a few big plays, but don't expect the world.
Prediction: Tulare Union 55, Delano 27

RIDGEVIEW (5-3, 1-3 SWYL) AT CENTENNIAL (4-3, 1-2) — Speaking of predictions, it would have been hard to guess that teams would have a combined 2-5 league record coming into this one. Which team is more snakebitten? Both lost fourth-quarter leads to West, and both gave up 40-plus to Stockdale. The game is huge to both teams. Centennial could be looking at a first-round 8/9 game against Clovis East in the playoffs. They'd love to have a few wins under their belt to get that one at home. Ridgeview needs a scalp to sort of legitimize its hot start, not to mention trying to snap out of a funk. Tyler Dogins may be able to do his thing enough for Ridgeview to score some points and stay in this one, but I think the Golden Hawks are due a break after last weekend's fourth quarter, in which they fumbled twice, lost both and saw both returned for touchdowns.
Prediction: Centennial 30, Ridgeview 17

WEST (4-3) AT GARCES (4-3) — Word in cyberspace is that West running back Mustafaa Cobb is academically ineligible to play for the rest of the season, or so a source close to the Vikings program has told me. That's a blow to the Vikings, who obviously are coming off their win of the year. It's possible that will end up being their high-water mark for the whole season, with a tough game here and another against Stockdale in Week 10 still left. But Chad Grider's defense has also been tough, so the loss of Cobb isn't an end-all. Garces' offense has been very, very good too, though, so this will be an interesting matchup. But unless West can find a way to hold the Rams below 20 or so points — something that's been done sparingly this year — I don't think they'll be able to keep up.
Prediction: Garces 24, West 14

EAST (3-4, 3-1 SEYL) AT LIBERTY (4-3, 3-0) — Speaking of interesting matchups, it will be fun — and probably pretty eye-opening — to see what East's (sometimes) high-flying offense can do against the Patriots. Defensive back Zach Vasquez leads a secondary that's one of the best around, and you can bet Liberty will get some pressure on Joe Pearson, the county's leading passer. I don't think the final outcome is really in doubt, because even if the Blades can score a few points, they've had trouble stopping people even in games they've won. Liberty's once-struggling offense will continue to fatten up in league play.
Prediction: Liberty 41, East 14

SOUTH (5-2, 1-2 SWYL) AT FRONTIER (7-0, 3-0) — Next week, at long last, is Frontier's game at Stockdale. But first things first: The Titans play their last regular-season home game this weekend, and if they're at all distracted by Senior Day and whatnot, South is good enough to put a scare in a team that otherwise should breeze to 8-0. I say that because Frontier has faced good backs like West's Mustafaa Cobb, Tehachapi's Jesse Olofson and Ridgeview's Tyler Dogins and more or less shut them down. Could be a big night again for the Titans' defensive line and a long one for Lee West and a pretty good South offense.
Prediction: Frontier 42, South 13

NORTH (1-6, 0-4 SWYL) AT STOCKDALE (6-1, 3-0) — Think back to last year at this time, and this was the Halloween game of the week, with North rolling in at 4-0 in the SWYL and Stockdale hanging on in the league race after losing to Ridgeview the week before. A few mistakes buried North, and though the Stars rebounded to out-gun Centennial the next week and win a share of the league title, they seemingly haven't been the same since. A lopsided playoff loss to Sanger and then a struggle of a 2009 later, North is just a speed bump for Stockdale on its way to Frontier next week and what's looking more and more like a deep run in the Division I playoffs.
Prediction: Stockdale 49, North 6

GOLDEN VALLEY (2-5, 1-3 SEYL) AT BAKERSFIELD (5-2, 2-1) — The Bulldogs' coaching staff had a bit of a revelation last year at this time, realizing that switching from their balanced, maybe even leaning towards the pass, offense to an all-Byron Newman, all-the-time attack might trip up the Drillers. It did, and Newman's big night combined with a few timely forced turnovers from the Golden Valley defense sprung what was one of 2008's biggest upsets. This is a different year and a couple of different teams, however, and I don't think lightning will strike twice in one place. Bakersfield is mistake-prone again, but Golden Valley doesn't have a Byron Newman to make the Drillers pay.
Prediction: Bakersfield 47, Golden Valley 12

FOOTHILL (1-6, 0-3 SEYL) AT HIGHLAND (2-6, 0-3) — If it weren't for that doozy of a Taft-Tehachapi game, this might be the toss-up pick of the week. The Scots finally showed some life in sticking with Frontier for about a half last week. Don't forget this is a team we thought might be pretty competitve this year until they had a rough stretch against East, Garces and Golden Valley. And this is a team that still has some athletes in Alan Roy and John Oglesby. Conversely, I think the pantry at Foothill is pretty bare in terms of experience and experienced talent. Give the Scots their first win in more than a month.
Prediction: Highland 23, Foothill 16

BAKERSFIELD CHRISTIAN (2-5, 0-2 SSL) AT SHAFTER (2-5, 1-1) — Hard to believe that it was just a year ago that BCHS was coming off of a scintillating shootout win against Tehachapi and blazing its way to an SSL title. Now the Eagles simply have to be worried about snapping out of this five-game losing streak. The good news is that Shafter, despite its own thrilling victory last week at Arvin, is more like the two teams Bakersfield Christian beat (Avenal and Kennedy) than it's like the five teams it lost to. Shafter will hang around, and a win here would really be huge for the program, but I think Arend Bos and the Eagles receivers hit enough big plays to give BCHS a much-needed victory.
Prediction: Bakersfield Christian 34, Shafter 24

ARVIN (1-6, 0-2 SSL) AT WASCO (5-2, 1-1) — The key here is Wasco's confidence. The Tigers were flying high a week ago but now are nursing the 42-0 welt Taft left them with last Friday night. If Wasco can shake that off mentally, they've got enough talent to roll past Arvin, but if the bad loss in their heads, that's when mistakes happen. Judging by an almost upbeat Wasco locker room after the Taft game, I'd say shaking it off might not be a problem. And it might not matter — Arvin has had trouble scoring all season no matter who it has faced.
Prediction: Wasco 41, Arvin 10

CHAVEZ (5-3, 2-2 EYL) AT PORTERVILLE (4-3, 2-1) — The Titans have been one of the toughest teams for me to predict all year. What's more, Porterville has played a number of Kern County teams, and I haven't done well there either, I think only 1-3. So to say this one strikes me as a toss-up is quite the understatement. It does seem to me like Porterville has been playing better the past couple of weeks — the Panthers snuck out a win against Delano in their last home game and then at least weren't totally embarrassed by Tulare Union — and they're at home. And I'm in doubt. You know what that means.
Prediction: Porterville 23, Chavez 19

MIRA MONTE (3-4, 3-0 SCSL) VS. KENNEDY (0-7, 0-3) AT CHAVEZ — Another rematch, one the Lions need to win if they want to stay ahead of Independence with those teams' own rematch coming in Week 10. The good news is that Mira Monte won the first meeting 36-6 in Bakersfield and that running back Tim Harris really seems to have hit his stride. Harris already has racked up 971 yards, including more than 200 in each of the past two weeks. He's averaging 203.3 yards a game in league play. Expect that to continue, and expect the Lions to roll and keep Kennedy winless.
Prediction: Mira Monte 42, Kennedy 7

McFARLAND (4-4, 1-1 ESL) AT LATON (1-6, 0-2) — Speaking of good running backs you might not have heard of, keep an eye on the Cougars' Frankie Gonzalez, who was up to 840 yards on just 96 carries as of two weeks ago (last week's stats weren't inputted on MaxPreps). Frankie, though, had only taken the ball into the end zone twice. Laton might be a tougher team that their record indicates — for small-school standards, they've played a decent schedule and they gave Mission Prep more of a test that McFarland did — but this is still a game the Cougars should win. Give Frankie another touchdown and McFarland a second-half pull-away.
Prediction: McFarland 28, Laton 14

KERN VALLEY (6-1, 2-0 HDL) AT BISHOP (3-3, 2-0) — Forget the records here, too: This could very well be the game of the weekend. Even though Desert and Mojave have won a couple of titles each this decade (and Rosamond won one in 2005), this has by and large been Bishop's league to lose for some time. Kern Valley, meanwhile, hasn't been in the picture until this year. So it's a classic case of the challenger against the champion, and it's in the champion's house. (To be fair, Frazier Mountain is going to be in this race, too.) But I like the Broncs with no O in this one for a couple of reasons — their offense has been terrific, and they've won a number of close games while the Broncos with an O have lost a couple. That sort of thing is contagious.
Prediction: Kern Valley 30, Bishop 27

FRAZIER MOUNTAIN (6-1, 2-0 HDL) AT CALIFORNIA CITY (0-6, 0-2) — Awaiting the winner of that game will be the Falcons, who should have no problem getting to 3-0 in league this week. Frazier Mountain must travel to Bishop next week before hosting Kern Valley in Week 10. In the meantime, it can sharpen its defense — even while winning, the Falcons have given up 20 or more points five times — against Cal City.
Prediction: Frazier Mountain 55, California City 14

DESERT (1-6, 0-2 HDL) AT ROSAMOND (1-6, 0-2) — For all the troubles the Scorpions have had this year, they've still been able to run the ball pretty effectively. They've got three kids over 300 yards, led by Chris Buchanan's 513, and they're averaging 4.2 yards a carry. But while offense was the problem early, defense has been the issue of late, and it's just shaping up to be one of those seasons where nothing goes right. Rosamond might be a bit of a respite, but the Roadrunners woke up last week and put some points on the board against Frazier Mountain in a 55-28 loss. Somehow, though, I think Desert's running game will have a big night and have enough to get out of the HDL cellar.
Prediction: Desert 28, Rosamond 19

BURROUGHS (4-3, 1-1 DSL) AT VICTORVILLE-SILVERADO (6-2, 2-0) — After splitting a couple of close games to open Desert Sky League play, the Burros likely need to take two of their final three games to reach the Southern Section playoffs for the second straight year. Unfortunately for them, that stretch begins with a road game at Silverado, a team that pummeled the same Barstow team that beat Burroughs in overtime a couple of weeks ago. The OT loss could haunt Burroughs if they don't get it done here.
Prediction: Silverado 37, Burroughs 20

LANCASTER-DESERT CHRISTIAN (2-5, 1-1 DML) AT BORON (5-2, 2-0) — I got a note earlier this week reminding me of what a great story the Bobcats are, and so I'll share the gist of it here: This is a football program that is a consistent winner, a consistent champion even, despite having a group of less than 20 players year in and year out. That's a testament to the players, the coaches and the small community, which will be able to enjoy another big victory this week.
Prediction: Boron 51, Desert Christian 14

YERMO-SILVER VALLEY (0-6, 0-1 DML) AT MOJAVE (5-1, 1-0) — Boron's run of dominance in the Desert Mountain League might come to an end, though, because of the presence of Mojave. While a much smaller school that it used to be, Mojave still has a consistent football program that produced a couple of champions in the much bigger High Desert League earlier in this decade. All signs are pointing to a battle royale between the Mustangs and Bobcats next week at Boron.
Prediction: Mojave 35, Silver Valley 6

COALINGA-FAITH CHRISTIAN (1-4, 1-1 CVSSL) AT LIGHTHOUSE CHRISTIAN (3-4, 1-1) — A win here in its final home game would set Lighthouse Christian up with a chance to go on the road and get a really big victory, next week against undefeated Riverdale Christian. It would also be a giant step towards a .500 season.
Prediction: Lighthouse Christian 47, Faith Christian 12

Saturday, Oct. 31
MARICOPA (5-2) AT L.A.-WINDWARD ACADEMY (6-0) — This is a rare late non-league game for the Indians, and it should provide them with quite a stiff test. Windward is unbeaten, though that counts one forfeit win. The Wildcats' other five victories include one against a previously unbeaten team and another against another unbeaten team. So, yeah, the Indians are underdogs here.
Prediction: Windward Academy 49, Maricopa 21

BIG PINE (4-3, 2-2 HLL) AT IMMANUEL CHRISTIAN (5-2, 3-0) — Big Pine appeared to be one of the top dogs in the Hi-Lo League until last week, when the Baker Mad Greeks (er, Braves, and I know that's not the first time I've used the joke but I love that restaurant) took them out 40-20. That, combined with Immanuel Christian's momentum and the fact that the Crusaders are at home leads me to pick them to stay unbeaten, setting up a league-championship showdown at Trona next week.
Prediction: Immanuel Christian 33, Big Pine 24

Last week: 18-6 (.750)
This year: 132-43 (.754)