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zewing - > School House Zach -> Week 9 HS football predictions (finally here!)
Week 9 HS football predictions (finally here!)

A quick note relating the World Series to Bakersfield on this, the night of Game 6: I ran into K.C. and Butch Hobson today at Stockdale while working on a story about this weekend's big football game. Butch said he's organizing Northwest and Southwest youth baseball camps in December and that as instructors, he'll have several college players, some players from the independent pro team he manages, the South Maryland Blue Crabs. And — here's the WS connection — he might get the Phillies' Chase Utley to come in, too. Utley, as you probably know, has tied a World Series record with five home runs this year and easiy could win the series MVP award if Philadelphia comes back and wins. The Hobsons are family friends of the Utleys, hence the connection. But since Utley is a little busy right now, we probably won't know for a while. I'll keep you updated.

Anyway, enough baseball for a brilliant November evening. Time to look back at last week's football predictions:

The good: Rolling up 20 out of 24 is always good, but in particular, I almost naied the Liberty-East final and also got toss-ups with Porterville over Chavez, Kern Valley over Bishop, Centennial over Ridgeview and Garces over West.

The bad: I predicted a one-point Taft victory, and the Wildcats were four minutes away from delivering. But the risk didn't pay off when Tehachapi made the big plays down the stretch. I also took Highland over Foothill, and the Trojans made me look bad.

The ugly: Not sure why I thought Desert had enough firepower to beat Rosamond, when in fact the Roadrunners had no troubles in a 30-8 victory. Ouch.

Now on to Week 9:

Friday, Nov. 6
FRONTIER (8-0, 4-0 SWYL) AT STOCKDALE (7-1, 4-0) — Quite simply, this is the one we've been waiting for since about Week 4, when it became apparent that these two — apologies to Bakersfield, Liberty and maybe Centennial or Garces — were the most complete teams in Kern County and two of the best in the Central Section. That last distinction will be decided later, but first we'll see how the Titans and Mustangs shake out against each other. Both have terrific, constantly improving defenses that are led by homing-missile linebackers like Isaiah Turner and Max Goosen for Stockdale and Ian Driskill, Will Harvey and Matt Darr for Frontier. Both teams also sport the best special teams in town, both in the kicking game and with the ability to make a big play on a return. Both have offensive playmakers, though here's where I think the difference might come: Even if Frontier can shut down Malik Henderson and Spenser Prince, Stockdale has proven it has no shortage of playmakers, whether they be other running backs like Eddie Gutierrez and Nic Shannon or quarterback Efren Venegas and receiver Kyle Desimone. Frontier's offense is efficient, but if Stockdale is on top of its game, the Titans will have trouble making big plays with either running back DeShaunte Webber or receiver Jake Adelman. Take those away, and the Frontier offense will have trouble keeping up. Add to that what should be a rocking home crowd, and I think Stockdale wins the game by winning the fourth quarter.
Prediction: Stockdale 27, Frontier 17

TEHACHAPI (7-1, 3-0 SSL) AT WASCO (6-2, 2-1) — The last piece of the SSL puzzle will be fit in after this game, and all signs point to a Tehachapi victory en route to another league championship, what would be the Warriors' ninth since joining the league 17 years ago. Any reason to believe the Tigers can spoil the party and create a three-way tie with Taft atop the league standings? Well, a few. Taft did a great job of not letting Quentin Cheatham and Jacob Salinas bust the big plays that have hurt every other team on Wasco's schedule; Tehachapi has the goods to do the same, but if it doesn't execute on D, those guys will be gone in the blink of an eye. But even if Wasco throws the first punch or two, Tehachapi has shown its resiliency and, maybe more important, its ability to score in different ways. In a game closer than they'd like, the Warriors come through.
Prediction: Tehachapi 26, Wasco 15

WEST (4-4, 3-1 SWYL) AT SOUTH (5-3, 1-3) — Perhaps the toss-up game of the week here, with a team that's done well in the league but not elsewhere against a team that's struggled in the league but dominated elsewhere. Garces ran wild on the Vikings last week, but (a) Garces has been doing that to everyone lately, and (b) South doesn't run a Wing T like the Rams do. Still, I think Lee West ought to be able to make some plays against West for the Rebels, and that will be enough to turn this one into a shootout. In the end, though, I trust West's defense more than I trust South's, and that will give West an edge in a close game and allow it to somewhat improbably stay in the league-championship hunt with a home game against Stockdale looming next week.
Prediction: West 38, South 30

BAKERSFIELD (6-2, 3-1 SEYL) AT EAST (3-5, 3-2) — It's got to be fun for East to have a solid grasp of Jerald Pierucci's offense in year two of that coaching regime and thus be able to bomb away on some teams that really handed it to the Blades a year ago. Bakersfield was one of those teams, and it won't be so easy this year. But still, East hasn't proven that it can stop anybody — other than a shutout against Highland in which the Blades had turnovers bouncing their way, they've given up 50 points a game. Yep, that's a Barry Switzer half-a-hundred we're talking about. And the scary part is, East might not yet have faced a team with the pure offensive explosiveness that BHS has.
Prediction: Bakersfield 54, East 17

CENTENNIAL (5-3, 2-2 SWYL) AT NORTH (1-7, 0-5) — For the second straight year, Centennial won't win an SWYL title after eight years in which it seemed like that was the Golden Hawks' birthright. But no matter: There are still plenty of things to play for, starting with a revenge game against North for a shootout loss against the Stars last year, the first such loss in Centennial's school history. Also worth keeping an eye on in this one is Cody Kessler's status. If he plays and gets back in the flow of things this week, Centennial suddenly is a very viable threat next week against Frontier and then in the Division I playoffs. If he doesn't, one starts to wonder if he's going to risk coming back at all this year. Either way, Kessler won't be playing in the fourth quarter of this one.
Prediction: Centennial 44, North 10

GARCES (5-3, 3-1 SEYL) AT FOOTHILL (2-6, 1-3) — We thought the Rams were facing a good defense when they went up against Highland, and they rolled up 62 points to really begin this offensive onslaught they've had in the past five weeks. Bakersfield was able to slow the Rams down in the second half of that game, but other than that, Garces has been able to name its score since league season began. That probably changes this week (if not, it will in Week 10 against Liberty) against a Foothill team that has steadily improved, especially on that side of the ball. But the Trojans are going to have a hard time keeping up with this Garces attack even if they can hold it to half of what it's had the past couple of weeks — which would be 30-some points and 300-plus yards.
Prediction: Garces 38, Foothill 7

RIDGEVIEW (5-4) AT GOLDEN VALLEY (2-6) — The Wolf Pack has stumbled through a brutal league schedule, losing to Frontier and Stockdale in blowouts and then last week in a close game to Centennial to bookend the stretch that started with a shootout loss to West. Now Ridgeview goes out of the league and figures to get a breather here. Golden Valley, a year after boasting one of the area's top offensive threats in Byron Newman, has become more of a grind-it-out team. I expect the Wolf Pack defense to force a few mistakes and make enough big plays on offense to keep the Bulldogs at bay for most of the night.
Prediction: Ridgeview 34, Golden Valley 14

HIGHLAND (2-7, 0-4 SEYL) AT LIBERTY (5-3, 4-0) — With how much Highland has struggled, it's got to be daunting to see trips to Liberty and Bakersfield left on the schedule. I bet the Scots would be happy just to get through these two with competitive results. For the Patriots, pencils need to be sharpened for next week's increasingly big trip to Garces and the playoffs after that. Liberty hasn't won back-to-back league titles in school history, and though they're well capable of the two more wins they need to get there this year, just a win here will clinch them a share of that crown.
Prediction: Liberty 38, Highland 0

ARVIN (1-7, 0-3 SSL) AT BAKERSFIELD CHRISTIAN (3-5, 1-2) — James Haupt has taken over for Arend Bos at quarterback for Bakersfield Christian (I think because of an injury problem, though that's no confirmed), and he helped the Eagles snap a five-game losing streak at Shafter with 227 passing yards and three touchdowns. You can expect that kind of production again, I would think, at home against Arvin as BCHS tries to climb its way back towards .500. I don't think this really is a lost season, though, considering that the Eagles still might be good enough to throw a scare into some of Division V's top teams in the playoffs.
Prediction: Bakersfield Christian 28, Arvin 16

SHAFTER (2-6, 1-2 SSL) AT TAFT (6-2, 2-1) — Knowing how fiery Taft coach Steve Sprague can be, I'd expect him to get in his team's ear all this week and make sure that there's a redemptive quality to this game rather than a hungover one after the Wildcats let one get away at Tehachapi last week. Sprague said in the aftermath of that one that Taft probably had given away a home game or two in the playoffs by losing its second game, and that his team "had better win these next two." I think they'll follow through in convincing fashion this week.
Prediction: Taft 51, Shafter 3

TULARE-MISSION OAK (1-7, 1-3 SCSL) AT MIRA MONTE (4-4, 4-0) — I'm looking forward to Mira Monte-Independence Round 2 next week after the teams' first meeting came down to a Falcons two-point conversion, but first the Lions and Falcons have to take care of the other teams in their league again. Neither has had much trouble doing that to this point, and though it gets tougher to beat a team the second time around, I can't imagine the gap closing so much that it makes 30 points' difference.
Prediction: Mira Monte 41, Mission Oak 18

KENNEDY (0-8, 0-4) AT INDEPENDENCE (4-4, 3-1) — Same song, different verse here, as Independence tries to roll up some more South Central Sequoia League offense against a group still looking for its first win as either a JV team or a varsity team. Kennedy changed coaches after just its first season, so it's no surprise things have been tough again. They'll have one more decent shot at a win next week against Mission Oak, but that elusive first victory won't come this week as both new Bakersfield schools clinch .500 seasons.
Prediction: Independence 51, Kennedy 13

TULARE WESTERN (3-5, 2-2 EYL) AT DELANO (6-2, 2-2) — The focus for the Tigers has shifted from the league season to securing a good seed in the Division III playoffs so they can stay at home in The Jungle for as long as possible. What's realistic? Maybe as good as a No. 2-4 seed and home through at least the quarterfinals if Delano wins out. Tulare Western and Chavez, the last two opponents, are both fairly stout defensively, so this isn't going to be a cakewalk. But Delano will shake off the cobwebs from that Tulare Union game and get it done here.
Prediction: Delano 27, Tulare Western 14

CHAVEZ (5-4) AT VISALIA-MT. WHITNEY (5-3) — Two up-and-down teams playing a non-league game late in the season the week before they need to get geeked up for crosstown rivalry games in Week 10 means that literally anything could happen in this one. But wild games with big plays on either side often come down to the last few minutes, and time and again, you see teams used to success and teams at home come through in those situations. Both of those descriptions fit Mt. Whitney in this case.
Prediction: Mt. Whitney 27, Chavez 21

McFARLAND (5-4, 2-1 ESL) AT ORANGE COVE (4-4, 2-1) — If you're interested in how Division VI section playoff seeding will shake down, this game is for you. Didn't pique your interest? How about watching the Cougars try to rebound without running back Frankie Gonzalez, who had racked up 840 yards in the past two weeks but hasn't played since then? Or just some good old-fashioned evenly matched high school football. As for who will win, I'll go with the home team and the comparitive-score theory, which saw McFarland squeak by Laton 23-20 last week and Orange Cove beat the same team 56-6 a few weeks back.
Prediction: Orange Cove 33, McFarland 16

MOJAVE (7-1, 3-0 DML) AT BORON (6-2, 3-0) — The first of a few Southern Section showdowns in the next couple of weeks comes in the Desert Mountain League, where the Mustangs and Bobcats have been the class of the league from the beginning of the season. Boron had a surprising struggle with Lancaster-Desert Christian last week but still got through to this game. So what shakes? It's the newcomer to the league, Mojave, which dropped down from the High Desert League when its enrollment was cut against the DML's perennial powerhouse. It'll be close, but I think it'd be dumb to pick against the champion, especially at home. The Bobcats will need to be better than last week, but I'll say the title stays in Boron.
Prediction: Boron 37, Mojave 33

FRAZIER MOUNTAIN (7-1, 3-0 HDL) AT BISHOP (3-4, 2-1) — Another huge league match-up. Bishop proved it was more than game against Kern Valley last week by taking forcing the Broncs to stage an improbable rally to get to overtime before KV won it. I'd think this will be a simiarly good game, but maybe the ball will roll the other way. One thing is for sure: This has to be the longest bus ride (Google Maps puts it at 5 hours, 44 minutes) for a league opponent that any team in California has to make. If we're going to make teams do this for a league game, tell me again why we can't have a state tournament in football. Travel, schmavel. Anyway, that trip won't help Frazier Mountain this week.
Prediction: Bishop 33, Frazier Mountain 28

ROSAMOND (2-6, 1-2) AT KERN VALLEY (7-1, 3-0) — The Broncs, meanwhile, will be at home waiting for the result of that Frazier-Bishop game after they presumably beat Rosamond, which has shown improvement but doesn't figure to challenge Kern Valley. If the Broncs win, they clinch a share of the league title with a Frazier Mountain loss or travel to Lebec next week an unbeaten showdown with a Frazier Mountain win.
Prediction: Kern Valley 35, Rosamond 13

CALIFORNIA CITY (0-7, 0-3 HDL) AT DESERT (1-7, 0-3) — Meanwhile, the other two High Desert League teams will be battling to stay out of the cellar. It's been quite a fall for Desert just two years after the Scorpions won the league title, but that's the way it goes in high school football. Still, I think they'll have at least one league to hang their hats on after facing another winless new school from the county.
Prediction: Desert 24, California City 10

PHELAN-SERRANO (6-2) AT BURROUGHS (4-4) — A non-league break for the Burros, who are in the midst of a fierce battle for the third playoff spot in the Desert Sky League. This will be a good test that should prepare Burroughs for a must-win against Victor Valley next week. Serrano is tough, though.
Prediction: Serrano 30, Burroughs 20

CUYAMA VALLEY (2-6, 2-1 CVL) AT MARICOPA (5-3, 2-1) — Speaking of getting into the playoffs, a win here would clinch a spot for the Indians in their final game of the season. A loss puts them in jeopardy of falling out of the league's top three. It would also be nice for Maricopa to beat a perennial Coast Valley League power like Cuyama Valley that's having a tough year.
Prediction: Maricopa 29, Cuyama Valley 23

IMMANUEL CHRISTIAN (5-3, 3-1 HLL) AT TRONA (6-2, 4-0) — Being upset by Big Pine last week threw a wrench into the Crusaders' Hi-Lo League title plans, but it would have been a challenge for Immanuel to go on the road and beat Trona, anyway.
Prediction: Trona 51, Immanuel Christian 34

Saturday, Nov. 7
LIGHTHOUSE CHRISTIAN (4-4, 1-1 CVSSL) AT RIVERDALE CHRISTIAN (5-0, 1-0) — Seems like Steve Sprague from Taft, in describing his team a year ago, found a pretty good way to talk about this year's Lighthouse team, too: The Guardians are a light heavyweight, and they've been able to dominate against other light heavyweights. But step up a weight class, and they're in trouble. Riverdale Christian is a true heavyweight, maybe even a super heavyweight. Expect a TKO.
Prediction: Riverdale Christian 49, Lighthouse Christian 20

Last week: 20-4 (.833)
This year: 152-47 (.764)

Posted in the Sports & Recreation interest group.
Topics: SPORTS, High School football, football, Week 9, predictions
posted by zewing on Wednesday, November 4, 2009 at 02:30 PM
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posted by timmyg on Nov 4, 2009 at 08:29 PM

zack, much better this week! The only ones that might give you trouble will be frazier park or frontier. That is a long trip for frazier park ,especially to lose, so i don't see that happening. It will be a war at stockdale on friday. GOOD PICK WITH TEHACHAPI 'WARRIORS WIN'

posted by zewing on Nov 4, 2009 at 08:36 PM

Wait — you're saying Frazier Mountain is going to win BECAUSE of that drive? They could, but I don't think the drive is a good thing.

posted by timmyg on Nov 4, 2009 at 10:42 PM

no, it's not  the drive but the extra time you put in to win a game like this. would it suck to drive all that way to lose? the drive is like motavation in this case. you give up two day's for one game. make it worth it.

posted by jfrancais on Nov 5, 2009 at 06:35 AM

Frontier, 21-17, in a upset.

I'm predicting that the coaches at Frontier will use field position to their advantage with Darr's booming punting capabilities.

The game gets harder when you play with a long field.

posted by superdude on Nov 5, 2009 at 09:29 AM

I have to agree that Stockdale will win over Frontier... BUT I am going with a blow out... After watching both teams play this year, I have to say Stockdale is by far the best team in the county. Other than a huge win against Tehachapi, I dont think Frontier has proven they can play top notch football against a strong team. They have played average teams thus far. I think they are in for a rude awakening tonight. Plus I do believe Snow may have a message for the Frontier administration. Out of respect for the kids of Frontier, they are a good team with momenteum and that in itself is a great thing to have this week. BUT its just not enough.

I disagree with the West over South. I think that it will be a shoot out, but after watching both West and South play. I think its going to more of whos offense shows up as to whos defense. Can the West High D stop Lee West of South? I dont see the West High D in the same manner as a Stockdale or Frontier. To my understanding West is without their stud running back which creates a new West team. West High defense did win a BIG game over Centennial, but that was againt a Centennial team that believed they should stick to the spread offense with a second string QB as opposed to allowing their runningback to run right over West High just like they did to South the week before. (Bad coaching choice on CHS... You have probabbly the biggest O Line in the county and you choose to not to run right at a smaller D.)

On a side note Zack, I noticed you still have Clovis West in top rankings in the Section despite have a below average record. Have they played some of the best in California? or are they being grandfathered in the rankings because they are Clovis West?

posted by jfrancais on Nov 5, 2009 at 09:41 AM

This Clovis West team could still beat a lot of teams in the valley (and most in Bakersfield) on a neutral field.

Is Stockdale really the best team, BY FAR?  They lost to Bakersfield and Liberty is a different team from what they were at the beginning of the season.  I also think they'd struggle to match Buchannon's explosiveness should the game turn into a shootout (a la BHS).

 

posted by jfrancais on Nov 5, 2009 at 09:44 AM

I played for BHS in the 90's.  We were the best team in the county, by far.  We never lost to any team in the county and we had to go down to the Southern Section just to play formidable opponents (Bishop Amat, Kennedy, Antelope Valley, etc.).  I just don't see teams like that in the valley anymore with all the high schools being built.

posted by Vikingpride78 on Nov 5, 2009 at 12:39 PM

I respectfully have to disagree, Superdude, although West lost it's stud RB there is another who has been getting reps now and he is just as good or better than Moose. Sebastian Rivera has the ability and speed to break big plays and also the strength to get about 5 yards per play, don't count their offense out yet. There defense on the other hand is stingy and solid, the reason Centennial didn't run up the gut behind the big O-Linemen is because the Viking's defensive line was able to stop it. Just because they don't have big names like Brach'e Hayes or Jeremy Bethell anymore doesn't mean they are not good. All in all, it is going to be an interesting game at south for sure.

West wins 35-17.

posted by zewing on Nov 5, 2009 at 02:37 PM

Rest assured, Superdude, there is no grandfather clause in my rankings. Clovis West is 3-5, but its losses have come to Buchanan, Central and Bullard — top-five teams in this section — and to Anaheim-Servite and Corona-Centennial, two of the Southern Section's best teams. CW has wins against Liberty, Edison and Clovis East. Are they as good as years previous? Maybe not, but I think they've done enough to be in the rankings.

And jfrancais, keep in mind that Stockdale also has one of the county's best legs in punter/kickoff specialist Andre Heidari. He's got 51 touchbacks on 58 kickoffs and might not quite be Darr in the punting game, but he's as close as you're going to get to neutralizing that.

posted by pin4win on Nov 5, 2009 at 03:15 PM

Zach,

What are the local D3 playoff possibilites looking like?    Who's in and who could be in with a win?

posted by timmyg on Nov 6, 2009 at 07:13 PM

jfrancais you guy had a thousand more kid's to pick from. that being said bishop amat beat the day lights out  of your team. Im being a h8r on your bhs. you guy's did have the best team back then and we in tehachapi(class of 89 and 90 football teams) would have loved to play you guy's. out come maybe known already but you guy's would remember us from the hard hits and never quit attitudes during the game. you do a great post, i enjoy reading all of them.

posted by zewing on Nov 6, 2009 at 07:17 PM

pin4win, it's a bit hard to say who will be in and out of the Division III playoffs considering the schools get to choose whether they compete. Last year, Ridgeview went in as a 2-8 team.

As for D-III favorites, it looks like Tehachapi will be the No. 1 seed and a pretty heavy favorite to three-peat. I'd also keep an eye on Delano, Ridgeview, South, and maybe Hanford, Oakhurst-Yosemite or Clovis North out of northern areas.

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