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zewing - > School House Zach -> Week 11 (playoffs) HS football predictions
Week 11 (playoffs) HS football predictions

It's a great time of year because the postseason for most fall sports is winding down (a couple of exceptions to that which I'll note below) and football playoffs are just gearing up, so I'm able to turn focus almost completely to them.

The two exceptions are tomorrow, when volleyball has its section championship matches. Locals are involved in Division II — Garces at Frontier — and Division III — Exeter at Tehachapi, a rematch of last year's final. I'll be tweeting updates from the Division II final like I did from Garces' semi last night. Centennial, the last remaining Division I local, was swept out of the playoffs by Clovis West on the road last night.

The other exception is Nov. 28, when cross country runs again at Woodward Park in Fresno for the state championships.

But now let's talk football. It's a light week, a byproduct of so many teams, especially the good ones, getting byes through to the quarterfinals. Which is, of course, but a byproduct itself of the watered-down playoff system the section uses. Will things ever change? Not sure, but I'm working on a story about it. Check Friday's paper for what I can dig up.

A look back at the last predictions of the regular season:

The good: Overall, a 20-3 week is never something I'll complain about. I almost nailed the score on Frontier-Centennial and did nail the score on Stockdale-West. Took Liberty to hold back Garces and Independence to avenge its loss to Mira Monte.

The bad: Didn't see North's comeback against East coming.

The ugly: Nothing too bad, I suppose, though I'm reacting too quickly to some results in Division III, notably involving South, Golden Valley and Ridgeview. Throw Foothill in there, too, and I screwed up both games involving those four teams last week. Maybe I'm just lucky they were playing one another.

Friday, Nov. 20
DIVISION I
NO. 9 CLOVIS EAST (4-6) AT NO. 8 CENTENNIAL (6-4) — Compare the team's records against the schedules they've played, and you've got a pretty evenly matched pigtail game in the Division I bracket. The Timberwolves don't have the quality win that Centennial does against Liberty, but they did blank a solid Sanger team 35-0, and they've got more quality losses than you can count on one hand. Centennial stumbled in the second half of the season, and though part of that (much of that, maybe) has to do with Cody Kessler's ankle injury, I'm still not sure I trust the Golden Hawks. When both teams are playing at their best, I think Centennial has a better team. I'm just not sure both teams are playing at their best.
Prediction: Clovis East 26, Centennial 21

DIVISION II
NO. 11 REEDLEY (7-3) AT NO. 6 GARCES (6-4) — Here's an argument against changing the playoff system: Reedley is about the best No. 11 seed you've ever seen. The Pirates' only three losses have come to Fresno-Edison (granted, in a blowout), Fresno-Bullard (in a close game!) and last week to Sanger. They count quality opponents like Clovis North and Fresno-Hoover in their list of victims, and they are clearly going to be a test for Garces. The key for me, though, is that the Rams have looked unbeatable against teams below a certain level over the back half of the season. Is Reedley below the level of Bakersfield and Liberty? Yes. Far enough below it for Garces to move the ball so easily? Not sure, but the Rams might have to if they want to get to Frontier next weekend.
Prediction: Garces 30, Reedley 28

NO. 9 WEST (4-6) AT NO. 8 SANGER (5-5) — Here are a couple of teams, in fact, that Garces might rather have played than that low-seeded Reedley squad. After its win of the season against Centennial in Week 7, West lost three straight games to end the year by an average of 22 points; they gave up 56, 38 and 42 points in them. Sanger plays pretty good defense, so the Vikings are going to have to find a way to plug the holes in their defense if they've got any chance of moving on to play Tulare Union next week.
Prediction: Sanger 33, West 19

DIVISION III
NO. 15 MIRA MONTE (5-5) AT NO. 2 TEHACHAPI (8-2) — It's not too hard to argue that the Warriors are the best team playing in the section this weekend (or, considering Memorial and Edison in Division II, at least the best local team), nor that Mira Monte is the worst. That's not a knock on the Lions, who had a great first varsity season, but to say a playoff team on the mountain in November without seniors is to say a ship is out on the Atlantic Ocean during a winter storm without rudders. Advantage: The Elements, or in this case the Warriors.
Prediction: Tehachapi 42, Mira Monte 7

NO. 14 INDEPENDENCE (6-4) AT NO. 3 PORTERVILLE (7-3) — It's hard to say if this one will be any closer, though Independence beat Mira Monte with ease last week and Porterville probably doesn't have the team, nor the home-field edge, that Tehachapi does. So can the Falcons pull a shocker? I don't think so. Porterville has athletes and it has too many of them for a team with no depth. This one will be like one of those 3-14 March Madness games that seem to happen every year, where the underdog hangs around for a half, almost has you beileiving and then gets buried with a big run down the stretch.
Prediction: Porterville 41, Independence 20

NO. 13 HIGHLAND (2-9) AT NO. 4 DELANO (8-2) — How much of Highland's rapid decline (at one time the Scots were 2-2) is due to a tough closing schedule that included Bakersfield, Liberty, Garces and Frontier, and how much was due to an offense that continued to struggle and a disappearing defense that gave up some big numbers itself? I don't know if I can answer that one, but if it can manage to put things together, the Scots can compete against Delano, which isn't as good as that foursome mentioned above. The Tigers are plenty powerful enough to blow by Highland if it continues to struggle though, and right now that's the safe bet.
Prediction: Delano 39, Highland 13

No. 12 GOLDEN VALLEY (3-7) AT NO. 5 HANFORD (6-4) — Another Division III matchup, another mercurial team. The Bulldogs' 28-2 victory against Ridgeview in Week 9 showed this team at its best, but it has also lost big to the No. 7 seed in this bracket, South, and by 10 to No. 10 seed Foothill. Funny thing about Highland is that they're very unproven, too. The Bullpups reached the D-III final last year, but this year they've beat just one team with a winning record (and that team, Mt. Whitney, went 6-4 itself without beating a team over .500). If you're looking for a first-round upset in a mundane slate of games, this might be it. But I still can't bring myself to trust Golden Valley to deal with a road trip and a solid team and come out with a win.
Prediction: Hanford 35, Golden Valley 27

NO. 11 HANFORD WEST (3-7) AT NO. 6 RIDGEVIEW (6-5) — The more I examine the Division III bracket, the more I think the Central Section seeding committee — namely, Jim Crichlow and his three area commissioners — deserve kudos for giving the whole thing some sense. There aren't any great teams in the division this year, and there doesn't seem to be a bit of hierarchy, but they've done a good job rewarding the teams that deserve high seeds. Of course, that doesn't mean that lower-seeded teams aren't going to wreak havoc with the bracket anyway. As a No. 6 seed that underachieved at times during the regular season, the Wolf Pack still might have the division's best player in Tyler Dogins and an athletic group around him that will compete with any D-III team. Hanford West, which counts among its three wins two against 0-10 teams and one against first-year Tulare-Mission Oak, shouldn't pose much of a problem. That does lead me to one seeding question: How the heck did the Huskies get the No. 11 ahead of Golden Valley, which has actually beaten a couple of teams with a pulse?
Prediction: Ridgeview 45, Hanford West 17

NO. 10 FOOTHILL (3-7) AT NO. 7 SOUTH (6-4) — A lot has happened since the Rebels clocked Foothill 48-28 back in Week 4: South has had some ups and downs, showing that it wasn't at the level of the Division I teams in its league or Frontier but handling North and getting a great win against West before losing to Ridgeview. Foothill has noticeably improved — the Trojans had just one win when they lost to the Rebels, and since played D-II East into four overtimes and beat Highland and Golden Valley. One thing Foothill has done that hasn't been seen there in at least a couple of years is put up some points. I'm still not sure whether the team has improved enough to erase those 20 points against South. Maybe on a good day, but if both teams come to play (and hey, this is the playoffs), I like the Rebels in a repeat victory.
Prediction: South 37, Foothill 24

NO. 9 CLOVIS NORTH (3-7) AT NO. 8 CHAVEZ (4-6) — A matchup of two teams that seemed like they were playing better early in the season than of late. That's understandable, even expected, for Clovis North, which doesn't have seniors and plays in a tough league, the County-Metro Athletic Conference. Not having much depth will wear you down there. But Chavez is a bit more of a mystery. The Titans were playing solid defense early in the year but suffered three straight double-digit losses to end the year against teams it might have been more competitive with. That leads me to favor the Broncos in this one even though they've lost five in a row by 14 or more. Better competition during the season usually breeds better luck come playoff time.
Prediction: Clovis North 24, Chavez 19

DIVISION V
NO. 9 BAKERSFIELD CHRISTIAN (3-7) AT NO. 8 SLO-MISSION PREP (7-3) — It's been a trying year for BCHS, but a win here and a second straight postseason trip to Corcoran next week, albeit under much different circumstances than last year's star-studded championship team, would make the Eagles' season. And I think it's possible — Mission Prep's schedule is very much softer than that of BCHS, and that has to make a difference. But where are the Eagles at mentally? They've been beaten down pretty good in the South Sequoia League and won just won game in their past eight. But many of those games were against teams better than Mission Prep. They might not have seen many better players than the Royals' Kevin Laird, who has passed for 740 yards and six touchdowns and ran for 950 and 12.
Prediction: Mission Prep 28, Bakersfield Christian 21

DIVISION VI
NO. 6 McFARLAND (5-6) AT NO. 3 MENDOTA (5-5) —
Disappointing finish to the regular season for the Cougars, who went 2-4 to close the season against what was supposed to be the easier part of their schedule. They did get a playoff bid (or give themselves a playoff bid, I should say), so chalk up an improvement over last year. Frankie Gonzalez missed a couple of games for McFarland, including last week's, so his status could be a concern. Either way, Mendota, which has four wins over Division V teams, will cause a lot of problems.
Prediction: Mendota 27, McFarland 14

SOUTHERN SECTION
EASTERN DIVISION
BURROUGHS (5-5) AT LA QUINTA (7-3) —
The Eastern Division is considered Division VIII (that's eight, if you didn't pay attention in Roman numeral class) in the Southern Section, and I'd say it's about the equivalent of Division III, maybe Division II, in the Central Section. Burroughs lost a shootout at Tehachapi this year and handled Arvin rather easily before slipping into this bracket after going 2-2 in a league that was full of evenly matched teams. The Burros bring QB Derrick Dison, who had 896 of his 2,000-plus total yards on the ground, and RB Frank Brown and 700 more rushing yards, to town. La Quinta, though, is a league champion, and while its Desert Valley league might not have been quite as good as the Desert Sky League, it was good enough for me to think the Blackhawks will end Burroughs' run after a nice win last week got Ridgecrest's team into the playoffs.
Prediction: La Quinta 32, Burroughs 24

EAST VALLEY DIVISION
HESPERIA-OAK HILLS (8-2) AT KERN VALLEY (9-1) —
 This strikes me as an awfully tough first-round game for the Broncs after a marvelous season that ended with wins at Bishop and at Frazier Mountain, but when you consider that Oak Hills hasn't played a team of Kern Valley's caliber all season, you start to believe that KV will roll here and into the quarterfinals as the dream season continues.
Prediction: Kern Valley 30, Oak Hills 13

FRAZIER MOUNTAIN (7-3) AT PASADENA-MARANATHA (8-2) — My first prediction here is that the Falcons fans will be warmer in Pasadena this week than they were last Thursday for that high-altitude showdown with Kern Valley. The question is whether Frazier Mountain's red-zone offense will be any hotter. The Falcons moved the ball against KV last week, especially in the first half, but they stalled in the red zone and fell behind big in what ended up as a lopsided loss. I've played it very safe so far this week, but I'll go out on a limb here and say Frazier reverses its fortune and gets an unexpected road victory.
Prediction: Frazier Mountain 27, Maranatha 25

NORTHEAST DIVISION
BURBANK-BELLARMINE-JEFFERSON (6-4) AT BORON (8-2) —
If you're looking for Kern County's hottest team heading into the playoffs, you could certainly consider Stockdale or Bakersfield or Liberty, who are all riding nice winning streaks heading into the playoffs. But I'd throw in some consideration for the Bobcats, who have won six in a row, all of them easy except last week's 14-13 non-league win against Redlands-Arrowhead Christian, which I'm guessing was a game to rest many of the Bobcats' key players. On second thought, when you've only got 40 or 50 boys in your whole school, much less the football program, do you have the luxury of resting key parts? Either way, they'll be playing this week.
Prediction: Boron 45, Bell-Jeff 14

MURRIETA-CALVARY MURRIETA (6-4) AT MOJAVE (7-2) — This is a matchup of two teams that lost late games pitting them against the other unbeaten team in their league. Both lost, and both now have the chance of some redemption if they can get the ball rolling in the playoffs. It's a long drive for Calvary, but I get the feeling the Mustangs have lost a bit of momentum during the stretch run of the year. Mojave reached the final of the Northeast Division last year, so I might look dumb for this, but I think the Mustangs lose a nail-biter at home.
Prediction: Calvary Murrieta 24, Mojave 23

Saturday, Nov. 21
LIGHTHOUSE CHRISTIAN (5-5) AT RIVERDALE CHRISTIAN (7-0) —
Unbeknowst to me for quite a while, the Central Section's 8-man teams have gotten together to stage a playoff of their own. Four teams got in, and Lighthouse was the fourth, so they play what you'd consider the No. 1 seed in Riverdale. The playoff isn't sanctioned by the Central Section, but if they're playing, I'll predict it. Unfortunately for the Guardians, they played this one two weeks ago. The Ambassadors won 44-0.
Prediction: Riverdale Christian 41, Lighthouse Christian 10

Last week: 20-3 (.870)
This year: 191-54 (.780)

Posted in the Sports & Recreation interest group.
Topics: SPORTS, High School football, football, Week 11, playoffs, predictions
posted by zewing on Wednesday, November 18, 2009 at 05:55 PM
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posted by FrontierFanatic on Nov 18, 2009 at 08:25 PM

Pretty good predictions. I don't think Centennial will lose, they'll find a way, but I do agree that they need a spark, and now's the time.

Also, rootin' for teams like South and Ridgeview, got some real playmakers there.

posted by bryanjackson on Nov 18, 2009 at 08:54 PM

I'll admit, I don't know much about Clovis East, but I think Centennial will get a win in a close game, let's say 28-24.  This one will be much closer than when these teams last met in the 2004 first round (the only other meeting between these schools), when Clovis East won 40-12 at Clovis East.

Also, another prediction:  Sanger 38, West 17.  Sanger is always tough in the playoffs, especially at home (the Apaches have won 2 Valley titles at the expense of my beloved Centennial Golden Hawks earlier this decade).  West will have a tough time on the road.

Also, don't sleep on Reedley.  This school has given Bakersfield teams fits in the playoffs this decade (Centennial narrowly beat them at Centennial 27-19(?) in a "fog bowl" in 2002 and if I remember correctly defeated a Ryan Mathews-led West team at West a couple of years ago).

posted by jgz6257 on Nov 19, 2009 at 03:31 AM

As I said in my earlier post, if Centennial does not use all of their players wisely, then you are looking at yet another golden hawk loss.  If they continue the same ol' plays with Myran Moore up the middle, down the side, throwing the ball to #4, then it's all predictable and Centennial will not score...a lot that is.  The other teams know what to look for and it's obvious.

I wish you well Centennial, but play smart!

posted by Nikkor on Nov 19, 2009 at 08:04 AM

Any team that loses more games than it wins( much less if they lose TWICE as many) should not be in the playoffs.  Period


posted by Sportnut on Nov 19, 2009 at 09:58 AM

On the Delano / Highland game:

I have  all but written Highland off, but with Olegsby back, and facing a team that will most likely be thinking their much superior, not meaning to take anything away from the Delano team, but they haven't faced the monster teams Highland did this year, the score should be much closer than Zach's prediction.

Hopefully! :)

However, until their offensive coordinator is changed, that team will continued to grossly under achieve... as it has for the PAST THREE YEARS!!!

 

 

posted by DTFan on Nov 19, 2009 at 02:32 PM

Although I've never seen Highland play, they are better than what their record indicates. They have good size kids with speed and lots of talent. Delano will not be taking Highland for an easy win...thats not Delano's style. But on the same token, DO NOT underestimate Delano. We may not have competed against Bakersfield schools, North being the exception, that doesn't mean the kids on the team aren't good. We too have lots of talent and speed. Looking at D3 stats, Delano has the most points scored and is only behind by a few points for points scored against them. That says a lot about the team. Although we got beat 49-14, Tulare Union was only 71 yards better than us. We held them under 50 points, which only two other teams have been able to do.

So come tomorrow, watch out...its anyones game. Although I cannot predict a winner, I can say that Gene Beck Stadium WILL BE ROCKIN'

posted by Sportnut on Nov 20, 2009 at 08:05 AM

DTFan,

No disrespect was meant toward your Delano team, only implying you guys might be looking past the Highland team that's all. 

Should've used better wording, my bad. 

Hope it's a great game, for both sides. :)

 

P.S. watch out for Highland's #45, he's playing with a BIG chip on his shoulder tonight... I'm just saying. 

 

posted by BobbyShoaf on Nov 20, 2009 at 09:09 AM

The student athletes at the DT Camp are well aware of all the obstacles that are in their way. They have been preparing for Highland as if they were the key to the championship, and in many ways, they are. Big number 45 has been studied over and over again. These kids met Mr. Oglesby and his 6'4", 232lb, last spring. They are well aware of his presence and his affect on the field. Much like Noel Gomez and Brandon Tillman at Cesar Chavez (easily all EYL prospects), DT knows Brandon Oglesby will be much more than a threat. There are some other things of concern inside the film room and we will see how well the Tigers prepare tonight.

Zach, you never answered DTFans question. Are you sending someone to the game tonight? It would be a disservice to the Panorama Bluffs and the other areas Highland High serves...(we know how TBC feels about positive coverage of low customer areas, it's kind of like the cold shoulder someone gets over time due to a conflict...and it is only going to get worse unless TBC does something to include these areas.)

posted by Sportnut on Nov 20, 2009 at 09:47 AM

Have to correct you BobbyShoaf: it's John, not Brandon Oglesby, and he's Almost 6'5" and now 253 lbs. :0  -    

And also hoping the TBC will cover this game. We'll see...

Overall, just hope for a good physical game where no one gets hurt!

 

posted by runner0412 on Nov 20, 2009 at 11:05 AM

I remember last year when Delano hosted South last year and everyone was saying South was the better team because there tough schedule coming in at 5-5.  Delano blew them out in the Jungle 42-0. I pretty much expect the same here tonight.. If Highland gets the first position they will score first.. but then Delano will roll.

Highland 10

Delano 56

posted by zewing on Nov 20, 2009 at 04:36 PM

Guys, relax. We'll have a reporter at the game tonight.

And disrespect Highland? Come on. I live up by Panorama. By the way, there's a story featuring the Scots this morning.

posted by jfrancais on Nov 20, 2009 at 04:40 PM

It would be nice if you could do one on Hartnett and his long journey.  The has coached everywhere in the valley.  He was kind of invisible as a D Coordinator under Preston in the 80's and 90's but he was the best coach I ever had.  He coaches with so much heart and soul!  He'd make you think you were the best player on the field even when at times that wasn't true. 

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