http://people.bakersfield.com/home/Blog/TomW/19764 Voters are at the polls across Michigan as we speak, casting their votes in that state's primary.  There's a bit of strangeness in this primary so we'll go over the oddities first. First, while the Democratic Primary is being held today, the state Democrats have been stripped of their delegates as punishment for moving their primary forward.  In response to and support of that, Edwards and Obama have pulled their names off the ballot so even though the Democratic Primary is today, Clinton is the only major candidate on the ballot. Which brings us to the second point:  Michigan has an open primary which means that people can request a ballot from any party and can vote in either primary.  How this will play out is anyone's guess, so here's mine:  Huckabee is going to show strongly here.  His supporters don't need wall-to-wall coverage to know it's election day.  McCain gets a big boost because he won't be competing with Democrats for the independants.  Romney is the hometown hero, the prodigal son.  All this in the mix plus the polls I'll post below, I'm gonna hand it to Romney by less than 5. Sorry, having table issues.  You can see the original here: http://www.presidentpolls2008.com/ McCain              Romney                  Huckabee              Giuliani               Paul            27% 24% 15% 6% 8% 5% 27% 29% 12% 7% 7% 4% 27% 26% 19% 6% 4% 5% 27% 26% 19% 6% 4% 5% 22% 30% 17% 6% 5% 7% 22% 27% 16% 4% 5% 4% 34% 27% 15% 5% 9% 4% 22% 20% 17% 6% 5% 7% 25% 26% 17% 9% 8% 9% Voters are at the polls across Michigan as we speak, casting their votes in that state's primary.  There's a bit of strangeness in this primary so we'll go over the oddities first. First, while the Democratic Primary is being held today, the state Democrats have been stripped of their delegates as punishment for moving their primary forward.  In response to and support of that, Edwards and Obama have pulled their names off the ballot so even though the Democratic Primary is today, Clinton is the only major candidate on the ballot. Which brings us to the second point:  Michigan has an open primary which means that people can request a ballot from any party and can vote in either primary.  How this will play out is anyone's guess, so here's mine:  Huckabee is going to show strongly here.  His supporters don't need wall-to-wall coverage to know it's election day.  McCain gets a big boost because he won't be competing with Democrats for the independants.  Romney is the hometown hero, the prodigal son.  All this in the mix plus the polls I'll post below, I'm gonna hand it to Romney by less than 5. Sorry, having table issues.  You can see the original here: http://www.presidentpolls2008.com/ McCain              Romney                  Huckabee              Giuliani               Paul            27% 24% 15% 6% 8% 5% 27% 29% 12% 7% 7% 4% 27% 26% 19% 6% 4% 5% 27% 26% 19% 6% 4% 5% 22% 30% 17% 6% 5% 7% 22% 27% 16% 4% 5% 4% 34% 27% 15% 5% 9% 4% 22% 20% 17% 6% 5% 7% 25% 26% 17% 9% 8% 9% en-us I'm taking McCain by less than 5 % WXYZ-TV (Detroit) is reporting in their last poll that 10 % of republican voters were still undecided, and they are expecting only a 20% turn out of voters because of weather. Going to be a nail biter, as you hinted. http://people.bakersfield.com/home/Blog/TomW/19764/#c_183173 http://people.bakersfield.com/home/Blog/TomW/19764/#c_183173 I'm taking McCain by less than 5 % WXYZ-TV (Detroit) is reporting in their last poll that 10 % of republican voters were still undecided, and they are expecting only a 20% turn out of voters because of weather. Going to be a nail biter, as you hinted. I can see that.  I think Huckabee will outperform polling, but I don't think he's got a chance.  The models are pretty useless on this one though and I think most of the smart pundits are staying clear of this after NH. http://people.bakersfield.com/home/Blog/TomW/19764/#c_183178 http://people.bakersfield.com/home/Blog/TomW/19764/#c_183178 I can see that.  I think Huckabee will outperform polling, but I don't think he's got a chance.  The models are pretty useless on this one though and I think most of the smart pundits are staying clear of this after NH. Is Michigan a big evangelical state like Iowa? If not, Huckabee won't do that well. http://people.bakersfield.com/home/Blog/TomW/19764/#c_183236 http://people.bakersfield.com/home/Blog/TomW/19764/#c_183236 Is Michigan a big evangelical state like Iowa? If not, Huckabee won't do that well. The entire western half of Michigan is evangelical. With the continued evacuation of Detroit by the luckless and broke, the state is being quickly transformed into a depression era collection of small outposts favoring extreme points of view.  http://people.bakersfield.com/home/Blog/TomW/19764/#c_183245 http://people.bakersfield.com/home/Blog/TomW/19764/#c_183245 The entire western half of Michigan is evangelical. With the continued evacuation of Detroit by the luckless and broke, the state is being quickly transformed into a depression era collection of small outposts favoring extreme points of view.  Thanks Adam, Primary forecast and list of possible places to live adjusted accordingly. http://people.bakersfield.com/home/Blog/TomW/19764/#c_183249 http://people.bakersfield.com/home/Blog/TomW/19764/#c_183249 Thanks Adam, Primary forecast and list of possible places to live adjusted accordingly. They've called it for Romney.  Looks like my "pundit" credentials are in danger.  Maybe not though, if his margin holds. Right now Romney 40%, McCain 30%, Huckabee 15% http://people.bakersfield.com/home/Blog/TomW/19764/#c_183329 http://people.bakersfield.com/home/Blog/TomW/19764/#c_183329 They've called it for Romney.  Looks like my "pundit" credentials are in danger.  Maybe not though, if his margin holds. Right now Romney 40%, McCain 30%, Huckabee 15% Good call Tom, I am very surprised by the early results, I guess they want 4 more years of GWB. http://people.bakersfield.com/home/Blog/TomW/19764/#c_183343 http://people.bakersfield.com/home/Blog/TomW/19764/#c_183343 Good call Tom, I am very surprised by the early results, I guess they want 4 more years of GWB. http://people.bakersfield.com/home/Blog/TomW/19764/#c_183411 http://people.bakersfield.com/home/Blog/TomW/19764/#c_183411   Mitt Romney's victory in Michigan was a defeat for authenticity in politics. The former Massachusetts governor pandered to voters, distorted his opponents' record and continued to show why he's the most malleable — and least credible — major presidential candidate. And it worked.   http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/on_deadline_michigan http://people.bakersfield.com/home/Blog/TomW/19764/#c_183430 http://people.bakersfield.com/home/Blog/TomW/19764/#c_183430   Mitt Romney's victory in Michigan was a defeat for authenticity in politics. The former Massachusetts governor pandered to voters, distorted his opponents' record and continued to show why he's the most malleable — and least credible — major presidential candidate. And it worked.   http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/on_deadline_michigan Montfred, in all honesty, the main reason I was calling it for Romney is that it was do-or-die for his campaign.  Everyone in the state knew if Romney didn't win he'd be out, much like people thought about Hillary in NH.  It brings out every last supporter. Now, anyone want to try to call SC and Nevada? http://people.bakersfield.com/home/Blog/TomW/19764/#c_183437 http://people.bakersfield.com/home/Blog/TomW/19764/#c_183437 Montfred, in all honesty, the main reason I was calling it for Romney is that it was do-or-die for his campaign.  Everyone in the state knew if Romney didn't win he'd be out, much like people thought about Hillary in NH.  It brings out every last supporter. Now, anyone want to try to call SC and Nevada? right TSM he must have stolen the playbook from Hillary (and Bill) http://people.bakersfield.com/home/Blog/TomW/19764/#c_183456 http://people.bakersfield.com/home/Blog/TomW/19764/#c_183456 right TSM he must have stolen the playbook from Hillary (and Bill) Chico, it's been 7 years since Clinton was President.  Get over it. http://people.bakersfield.com/home/Blog/TomW/19764/#c_183465 http://people.bakersfield.com/home/Blog/TomW/19764/#c_183465 Chico, it's been 7 years since Clinton was President.  Get over it.   Chico, it's been 7 years since Clinton was President.  Get over it. Chico's life is obviously too empty and hollow for him to get over it. Why else would he spend so much time and energy on the Californian's blogs?  52 comments yesterday alone. And that doesn't count the number of posts he made in his own blogs.   http://people.bakersfield.com/home/Blog/TomW/19764/#c_183481 http://people.bakersfield.com/home/Blog/TomW/19764/#c_183481   Chico, it's been 7 years since Clinton was President.  Get over it. Chico's life is obviously too empty and hollow for him to get over it. Why else would he spend so much time and energy on the Californian's blogs?  52 comments yesterday alone. And that doesn't count the number of posts he made in his own blogs.   look who's counting pathetic http://people.bakersfield.com/home/Blog/TomW/19764/#c_183547 http://people.bakersfield.com/home/Blog/TomW/19764/#c_183547 look who's counting pathetic Yes TSM he like to beat people over the head with his shallow remarks. Chico is the typical conservative. Must be nice to not have to work. Why is that? Corporate welfare? http://people.bakersfield.com/home/Blog/TomW/19764/#c_183565 http://people.bakersfield.com/home/Blog/TomW/19764/#c_183565 Yes TSM he like to beat people over the head with his shallow remarks. Chico is the typical conservative. Must be nice to not have to work. Why is that? Corporate welfare?   Must be nice to not have to work. Why is that? Corporate welfare? The same social welfare system he complains about. Conservatives are hypocrites in that way.   http://people.bakersfield.com/home/Blog/TomW/19764/#c_183568 http://people.bakersfield.com/home/Blog/TomW/19764/#c_183568   Must be nice to not have to work. Why is that? Corporate welfare? The same social welfare system he complains about. Conservatives are hypocrites in that way.   And chico is the quintessential hypocrite. http://people.bakersfield.com/home/Blog/TomW/19764/#c_183569 http://people.bakersfield.com/home/Blog/TomW/19764/#c_183569 And chico is the quintessential hypocrite.