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Wrong then, wrong again The same economists who failed to spot this year's financial meltdown are now predicting that everything will soon be fine The economists are telling us that everything is going to be fine. It seems that the worst is behind us. The credit crunch is over, the tax rebate cheques are in the mail, the dollar will stop falling, and the economy is now expected to pick up in the second half of the year. That is what most economists have been saying. Here is why they are wrong, yet again. The housing market is currently in a free fall. The latest data from the Case-Shiller 20 city house price index show real prices falling at an almost 30% annual rate. This rate of price decline implies a loss of almost $6tn of housing wealth by the end of the year - that's $80,000 for every homeowner in the country. This stunning loss of wealth has two important implications for the near-term course of the US economy. First, consumption is certain to decline. For the vast...
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