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Hillary, Wow
Folks watching the Democratic nomination process need to go back for another round of popcorn. Last night was expected to be, finally, the proverbial final nail in Hillary's coffin in her bid for the Democratic presidential nomination. Her most strident critics claimed she needed double digit victories in both Ohio and Texas to stay in the game and even her supporters seemed a bit uneasy with her chances. Well, she got the double digit win in Ohio and the win in Texas was pretty decisive. Vermont and Rhode Island were a wash. It's still mathematically possible for her to win the popular vote. There is one big state left, Pennsylvania, and Hillary's polling an easy 9 points ahead of Obama. She is down in the delegate count by about 100 but that's nothing when one considers the 350 or so unclaimed superdelegate votes that are still up for grabs. A month ago, I never would have expected redo elections in Florida and Michigan to be a possibility. They would no doubt require a lot of time and expense. However, the Republican governor of Florida is certainly behind the idea, which gives it legs. Those two states redoing their elections would give the Democratic party a potential way out of deciding the nomination without using superdelegates, which would be the least desireable option for the party. Reliance upon superdelegates to decide the nomination guarantees that someone walks away from the convention feeling pretty upset and taking their disenfranchised voters with them. I don't think that Hillary pulls out unless some meetings involve superdelegates telling her that they won't support her. That doesn't seem likely to happen. If she continues to win the bulk of the remaining elections, then she has the upper hand in arguing her case for the nomination because she'll have the Clinton long history of supporting the Democratic party combined with decisive wins in the most recent elections. She can claim that proves her viability as a candidate in the general election. She's now polling within 1% of a general election outcome versus McCain, which is the best showing she's had in polls against the Republican nominee for weeks. And if Obama's camp continues to pressure her to bow out, that's just going to hurt Obama more as she asserts her right to keep campaigning when she still has a chance of winning. 42 comments from 15 users
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posted by
randomfactor
on Mar 5, 2008 at 07:41 AM
I don't think anyone expected last night to settle things, unless Clinton won big--which she didn't. Obama's still ahead in delegates (by what, 150+?) and likely to pick up more superdelegates soon. If Clinton wins every state from here on out with ten-point margins she can make up 20 of those. Oh, well, at least the folks in PA are happy. She can only win at this point by trashing Obama so thoroughly that it would make the Whitewater lynching look like a Friar's Club roast. Now, that *COULD* be her strategy... posted by
PawnThyself
on Mar 5, 2008 at 07:45 AM
posted by
randomfactor
on Mar 5, 2008 at 07:50 AM
I'd donate if McCain were to take on the further anchor of the worst Secretary of State in recent memory as his running mate. . "No one could have foreseen that tying himself firmly to the failed Iraqi War opposed by two-thirds of the country would have such consequences..." posted by
TomW
on Mar 5, 2008 at 07:59 AM
I was amazed by last night. I gotta say, if Clinton can drive Latino turnout in the general the way she did last night, she makes a strong argument to get the nod. I'm not sure about this, but I heard that if Latinos voted in the same numbers as they did last night, Texas would become a blue state. posted by
PawnThyself
on Mar 5, 2008 at 07:59 AM
Should McCain lose, I would prefer he lose to Obama rather than Hillary. McCain still has my vote, however. posted by
randomfactor
on Mar 5, 2008 at 08:00 AM
posted by
Katatak
on Mar 5, 2008 at 08:01 AM
As I listened to the Sunday talk shows and caught the editorials, the majority of pundits were saying Obama would bury Hillary and she would have to pull out. I think there was every anticipation yesterday would decide things, but Hillary is proving them wrong and for that I give her kudos. posted by
randomfactor
on Mar 5, 2008 at 08:31 AM
posted by
gsisola
on Mar 5, 2008 at 08:35 AM
Here is the deal, this is why the Hildabeast won yesterday (and it kind of makes me sick). McCain has it sewn up on the GOP side.... so the repubs instead of voting for McCain... cast their votes for Clinton. Rush even told them all to on air. They figure it will be easier for McCain to be victorious over Clinton instead of Obama.... she won because of Republican voters... end of story !!! posted by
gube
on Mar 5, 2008 at 08:46 AM
so gsisola your a ditto head.......... hey I heard that Rush just told his loyal ditto heads to jump off a cliff..............I'll miss you! posted by
hotcorner
on Mar 5, 2008 at 08:46 AM
Rush Limbaugh told Laura Ingraham last week that Repubs should cross over and vote for Hillary to keep the carnage going. It appears to have worked. posted by
randomfactor
on Mar 5, 2008 at 08:46 AM
That was likely a minuscule number. Rush just ain't that influential anymore. . In any event, it didn't work. She's still behind by like 150 delegates. posted by
gube
on Mar 5, 2008 at 08:50 AM
posted by
hotcorner
on Mar 5, 2008 at 08:52 AM
Should McCain win, this country's in *BIG* trouble. It wouldn't be the first time. Repubs more than likely have Sleazy Slimy Stuff on both O'Bama and The Pear-Shaped One, and will drop the bomb if need be. posted by
gube
on Mar 5, 2008 at 09:02 AM
gsisola i am happy to hear that your not a ditto head. I don't think the Republicans had a thing to do with Clinton's victory. Clinton has always led in those states,Even though her lead was slipping. posted by
randomfactor
on Mar 5, 2008 at 09:04 AM
I wouldn't trust Faux News to set my clock by. Slate has it 1687 to 1531, with some mathematical implications run *HERE*: http://www.dailykos.com/sto... . Rumors of 50 Superdelegates endorsing Obama soon, as well. For whatever rumors are worth. posted by
gube
on Mar 5, 2008 at 09:14 AM
RF I am sorry that i used Fox news as a reference, my bad..........stupid me.......... It well be interesting to see where those super delegates go. I still think it to early to count Clinton out. A lot can happen now and the convention. posted by
gube
on Mar 5, 2008 at 09:58 AM
posted by
sagefever
on Mar 5, 2008 at 10:01 AM
It's a beautiful morning and I think that Obama held his own,that eventually for the good of the party ,Ms. Clinton will see the light and bow to the ground swell calling for real change across this country. posted by
RoyTullis
on Mar 5, 2008 at 10:06 AM
What real change? Higher taxes, More intrusion and new welfare programs? Run from Iraq with our tail between our legs? This is not the change I want to see. posted by
TomW
on Mar 5, 2008 at 10:14 AM
Roy, not to derail, but Bush has already scheduled a huge tax increase to pay off his foolishness. With the Democrats in charge, at least we won't stick the middle class with the bill. posted by
randomfactor
on Mar 5, 2008 at 10:20 AM
posted by
adampayne
on Mar 5, 2008 at 10:20 AM
Still very unsettled. Gsisola makes a good point regarding the outcome in Texas, but I was still quite surprised by the outcome in Ohio. So much for momentum. Of course, at this point what does all this say about our democratic process? With the list of delegates now separating the two candidates being such a small difference, the super-delegate comes into much bigger play, which brings the old backroom manifestations as the decider of who we vote for. The vote is for show, the backroom makes things go. As this tortured process has dragged on, for what seems like years now, it makes one reflect on what this will accomplish in the end. We have not been able to put together an energy policy in the thirty-five years since the first oil crisis in 1973. Same small number of players dictating supply and price to the world. Daniel Plainview would be proud. I think the last great public works project that happened was the California Aqueduct, which began construction in 1960. (1) In today's toxic political climate not much can happen, and ultimately won't. We'll still be paying much more than other major nations pay for health care with increasing numbers of our people unable, or unwilling, to pay the increasing cost of premiums. (2) (3) We might get another tax break to offset a small percentage of the cost increases but don't look for any real progress on the bankruptcy front caused by medical expenses. You'll get to hear how trial lawyers are to blame for spiraling costs in medicine even though this is an outlandish lie. (4) Really when you stop and think about it, our government process for the past thirty years has been all about greasing the way for the richest among us to expand and merge unfettered by oversight and regulation. Laws are created to ensure that what currently exists for the few stays with the few. Big changes that have occurred in our history have never been through legislation, but through violence and litigation. Do you honestly think there would have been a forty hour work week, and any employee benefits if workers had not gone to war against owners for over seventy years before finally coming to a head during the Great Depression? (5) We'd still have slavery if it were not for the violent actions we heaped upon ourselves in the mid-19th Century. Jim Crow laws would still be in place if it were not for the violent explosions in the 1950s and 1960s. We'd still be in Southeast Asia if it were not for the violence and confrontations during the late 1960s and early 1970s. The optimist believes that reason and compromise will eventually prevail to enforce justice and fair play as the basic rules of the game. The pessimist knows that history teaches us a different lesson every time.
posted by
sagefever
on Mar 5, 2008 at 10:22 AM
Actually Roy, I and many Americans would like to see government accountability,our reputations restored ,less government intrusion,and parts of the Constitution restored. Hope,inspiration and the American "can do" spirit restored,instead of the ever widening divide between "us" and "them". And yes,getting out of Iraq,with no tail between our legs but an honest assessment of why we went there in the first place,so as not to repeat ..oh and yeah let's get OBL~remember him?
posted by
Flightmedic14
on Mar 5, 2008 at 10:29 AM
Or Tullis, A real discussion about providing health care for ALL, regardless of socio-economic status, re-working NAFTA, maybe even bringing some manufacturing jobs BACK to the US, an increased of the standard of living for all, including raising the minimum wage, re-working the AMT to do what is was originally intended for, ensuring the ultra-rich pay their fair share of taxes, repealing the Bush tax cuts for the rich, anyone making over over $250,000 is rich, sorry, not allowing fear to drive our domestic policies ensuring Americans safety at home, such as the current FISA debate and the UNPATRIOTIC PATRIOT ACT, and not retreating in the War on Terror, but rather focusing our efforts to combat the real War on Terror which would include reducing troop levels in Iraq and increasing troop levels in Afghanistan. So, in short, fair and equal treatment for ALL Americans, regardless of race or sexual preferences, attempting to right this slowly capsizing ship called America, truly fight for freedom, and restore America to an ally to the world community rather than a road block......YES, PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE GIVE ME CHANGE! posted by
randomfactor
on Mar 5, 2008 at 10:34 AM
Adam, saw this this morning and it sums up the situation nicely: If the Government is a car setting out to give every one a ride to work, then for 40 years the Republicans have been puncturing the tires, pouring sand in the gas tank, stealing the distributor cap, and, whenever they can get their hands on the wheel, driving it straight into the nearest ditch and then pointing to the wreckage as the tow truck backs up to it, saying, "See, this proves that people were meant to walk." And they do this so that they don't have to chip in on gas. --Lance Mannion posted by
ProgressivePete2
on Mar 5, 2008 at 10:53 AM
Looks like the mass media is hoping that Hillary will keep on going. I was watching the Today show, and they turned the voume up when Hillary was on, but had the whole Obama interview quiet. I tell ya, it's the little things that most people don't notice, but can really favor one person over the other. I guess all of her complaining worked.
What really bugs me is that she has the nerve to want Michigan to count when she was the only one on the ballot.
posted by
Katatak
on Mar 5, 2008 at 11:08 AM
"That was the information that I had at the time. . . . Those charges are completely unrelated to me. . . . I have said that that was a mistake. . . . The fact pattern remains unchanged." "When those failed, Obama tried another approach. "We're running late," the candidate said, and then he disappeared behind a curtain." posted by
nooneisabovethelaw
on Mar 5, 2008 at 12:01 PM
The MSM won't have anything to report/lie about for the next eight months if both races are done now...so, Obama hd to lose now, so he could stage a furious comeback at the Convention. Otherwise, it won't fit the storyline. posted by
gsisola
on Mar 5, 2008 at 02:59 PM
Ok... so now we are supposed to delete anything that might not be exactly on topic.... I will... but it sure makes the thread look strange to those who are reading it for the first time... it sure was nice when we had actual "free flow' here. posted by
ChicoEsquela
on Mar 5, 2008 at 03:05 PM
AMT kills me and I'm not "super rich" Hell, not even "rich" -- more like vast upper middle! Hate AMT! Better be careful re-working NAFTA FM. A lot of ramifications regarding guaranteed crude oil supplies from Canada, etc. posted by
ChicoEsquela
on Mar 5, 2008 at 03:09 PM
this is why the Hildabeast won yesterday (and it kind of makes me sick). McCain has it sewn up on the GOP side.... so the repubs instead of voting for McCain... cast their votes for Clinton. Rush even told them all to on air. They figure it will be easier for McCain to be victorious over Clinton instead of Obama.... she won because of Republican voters... end of story !!! Gisola, I'm not sure how much that really happened. Yeah Limbaugh was jacking his jaws about it for a week but I don't believe it happened on anything other than a fairly deminimus scale. posted by
FreeCognate
on Mar 5, 2008 at 03:33 PM
Real Clear Politics offers a breakdown of the vote from Texas and Ohio here:http://www.realclearpolitic... I'm not sure that Republicans played much of a role in determining the outcome. Hillary did better with self-id'd democrats and she also improved her standing with independents and wealthier voters, which have been coming out for Obama in previous elections. Building on what Adam said about the decision of delegates, Realclear politics pointed out that the stark difference in outcomes between the popular vote and the caucas vote may give Hillary another rhetorical strategy to use to argue that she should be the nominee. Obama has a lot of delegates from caucases and caucases involve a lot less people making the decisions. Hillary can point to states like Texas where she won the popular vote but lost the caucas.
posted by
randomfactor
on Mar 5, 2008 at 03:58 PM
Those few Republicans who *DID* cross over were (anecdotally) ticked off to discover they could not vote Republican on the downstream (local offices) ballot... . Dogma, meet karma. posted by
ChicoEsquela
on Mar 5, 2008 at 04:05 PM
posted by
Katatak
on Mar 5, 2008 at 04:07 PM
Well, even journalists like a horse race since that makes the ink rain dollars. I just see some very curious wrinkles developing here, such as FreeCognate indicates. posted by
ChicoEsquela
on Mar 5, 2008 at 04:35 PM
posted by
randomfactor
on Mar 5, 2008 at 04:58 PM
Latest from the Lone Star State: Obama may win Texas. . No kidding. He could come out of the state with more delegates than Clinton does... . FWIW, I think right after they get rid of SuperDelegates and the butterfly ballot the D's have got to do something about rationalizing the Texas primary. Of course, it *IS* the National Laboratory for Bad Government... posted by
FreeCognate
on Mar 5, 2008 at 05:03 PM
Clinton: ‘Be careful what you wish for, Rush’Too funny. I guess that Hillary does agree with you Gsisola! I have to agree with you on Texas and the SuperDelegates RF. What a mess. posted by
nooneisabovethelaw
on Mar 5, 2008 at 05:49 PM
Texas, is, unfortunately, the state that gave us eight long years of George W. Bush. I'm sure they were relieved to have foisted him off on the rest of us. Next time, the crazy uncle needs to stay in the basement. Arkansas was probably hoping for the same thing. posted by
TomW
on Mar 5, 2008 at 05:50 PM
Actually, the primaries would be a great place for Democrats to start rolling out instant runoff voting. posted by
gsisola
on Mar 5, 2008 at 06:42 PM
Texas, is, unfortunately, the state that gave us eight long years of George W. Bush. I'm sure they were relieved to have foisted him off on the rest of us. Next time, the crazy uncle needs to stay in the basement. Arkansas was probably hoping for the same thing. I asked some relatives from Ark. when Bill Clinton was first voted in as Pres. whether they liked him or not... and that is what they told me... We put in as Pres. to get him out of our state... for real... what they said I mean.
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