Thanks for posting!

However, I wouldn't wipe my dogs behind with anything Gary "didn't see the bubble coming and then said prices would reach a permanent plateau and was DEAD WRONG" Crabtree produced.   :)

 Anyone have any stats on the number of houses sold in March and the price range?

edit..in the Greater Bakersfield area that is.

 The only thing moving right now is the lower end, the last suckers are buying right now. When the median finally regresses back to its historical point of $160 to $170k  we will be at the bottom, until then buy at your own peril. Also, most of the sales are foreclosures or other distressed properties.

By the way, the high end is  DEAD - the financing is just not there and the amount of phony $30k millionaires out there has run its course. In fact, a former real estate mogul applied for  $8 hr job locally...

 BakersfieldBubble, that's a pretty nice estimate for a low end on the market.  That means from 2000, you'd still be up almost 100% of value.  The "historical" price of an average home before 2000 was $84K.

 That has been my guess for several years and it is getting closer every month.

My records show prices in 2000 @ $95k or so. I think homes were undervalued back then, in fact you could cash flow on rentals. At today's prices good luck. Home prices were very stagnant from 1983-2000, so we many years of zero price gains.

 The biggest issue holding us back is median household incomes have not gone up since 2000. Median home prices will get back to 3-4 times median hh incomes.

 BakersfieldBubble, you're the one with the records.  I was thinking it was around 84K, but that might have been in 97-98, not 2000.

In my son's neighborhood there are for sale signs all over but also a whole lot of for rent signs.  I guess they're trying to recoup as much of their mortgage payment as possible.  Funny how in the past I'd worry about my ability to rent.  Credit checks and all that.  Now I'd be wanting to check out the solvency of the owner before I placed my hard earned money in his/her hands.  I wouldn't want to move right after moving in due to a foreclosure.

BakersfieldBubble talks about "lower end" prices. 

While people define that in different ways, of course, our latest home sales map includes a LOT of homes that sold for less than $200,000. It has homes sold in mid-February, and you can check it out here. 

Hope that helps a bit with the data you seek. 

— Christine Peterson

 I checked the listings and there are actually quite a few already in the 100-150K range, however lots of short sales. What's the median income of Bakersfield, and how much does that afford, assuming what is it 1/3? or 1/4? goes to mortgage. Reason I ask is because as far as I can tell, Bakersfield is a $75/sq.ft. town or thereabouts. I don't even know how all this happened?

Great comments and questions regarding affordability.

Bakersfield's median household income is estimated at $51,421 in 2006 inflation-adjusted dollars, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

-Vanessa Gregory

 Kerndata has a nice graph on price per square foot. Not sure how accurate it is:

http://www.kerndata.com/ind...

I see, that is pretty close to what I found on CNN. Thanks!

bubble-yes I actually saw that on the blogspot posting a while ago. That's kind of where I got my numbers, the income is only up 10K-15K? But house prices are doubled. I guess when 30 years is the loan and people only worry about the monthly it all comes together for the right people.

  My guess as to how this market got to where it is; is that a lot of buyers with non-recourse loans, 'mailed in the house keys' and walked away, the lender has no recourse against the buyer, and now own the house.

I'd love to learn what percentage of the current distress sales are from those types of loans, vs. conventional loans.

The big money (ie Castle Realty, et al) vs the little guy.

Excellent discussion on the recession:

http://calculatedrisk.blogs...

Wonder how (or if) the dollar's slide since 2000 affects the Kerndata chart. 

.

Spam code EROPE.  Just missing the U

 BakersfieldBubble, thanks, that is an interesting read, I've been thinking and really am concerned that  the US has enteried an "L" shaped recession , just like the experience in Japan in the '90s.  The dollar drops big time. 

I'm praying Barney Franks comes up with a workable solution before the financial markets have to disclose their worthless holdings (assets). Such as happened with Bears Stern and to a smaller scale again  today..

"..at the largest bond fund at Charles Schwab, YieldPlus, is plunging in price. Suffering from massive redemptions, of the vast majority of its assets, it was forced to sell illiquid mortgage-backed securities at distressed fire-sale prices. As a result, the fund cratered from $8.79 at the end of February to $7.17 at the end of March - a fall of more than 18% in one month - and is now trading at just $6.85. That's a really nasty year-to-date loss of 24% for an ultrashort bond fund which opened the year at $9.01 a share. Here's what it was meant to do:...(read more)

 "Anyone have any stats on the number of houses sold in March and the price range?"  Geez... Yea... Negative,down,nosediving..

"I wouldn't want to move right after moving in due to a foreclosure." I agree, With all the money That I have in my savings and my great credit rating and my job security I have so many I can choose from and why would I want to move from my foreclosed house with the padlock on the door,I`ll just take my time and browse around...

Just wait until the school year is out and all the units that the people have hung on to just until school is out ...ouch!!! Bam !!!

I see a bad moon risin...... Kern County is in a world of hurt.. denial don`t help... Some peoples grasp of reality is laughable. The housing crisis is only a indicator of the crisis that is coming, next the auto loans, next the credit cards, next the job losses.. How can you expect to keep people employed when the companies themself are caught in this defeat? And the funny part.. It has only begun !!! Yes, It has only begun.... Deep Do Do coming... Ain`t no more Auntie M to click your heels for.. The party is over..turn out the lights....

 Gee Maggie..thanks for being so informative.  Since you quoted me, you might have the good grace to answer the question.  There ARE houses selling, I'm wondering how many in a month what price range.

Oh..yeah..I asked that already didn't I. 

We already KNOW the situation is bad.

 Just ask Gary whats his name, google it, research..

But local appraiser Gary Crabtree said the local market is not all that bad.

"The market is reasonably stable," Crabtree said. "Pricing is pretty stable. New construction prices are continuing to drop, but that is to be expected after home builders made so much money in the last couple years."

ARM`s reset chart.. troubles just starting... Click your heels 3 times and say "there`s no place like home" Only one thing , your home has dropped in value 30% and more than half of your neighborhood is empty foreclosures... Oh My!!

Financial Ruin 1A, Oh My!!! Charts for the illiterate, just follow the little sqiggly line to the end....Oh My!!!   "NOW IS A GOOD TIME TO BUY !!!"

NOW IS THE TIME TO BUY !!!
 

Maggie, what do you propose to fix this RE mess?

 Let it go, The quicker it destructs the sooner we can adjust back to pre-bubble normal market conditions, But the problem is that we have to let it ride all the way through till 2012 as you can see by the upcoming Arm`s plus add 6-9 months for them to filter on the market, but sadly by that time the destruction is so total I have no idea what the future holds.. It don`t look rosy