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Now we wait.

As many expected, Big West on Rosedale Highway has stopped refining oil.
What's next is harder to predict.

Will Big West sell? Will it work out a deal with its suppliers to get running again? Will the state Attorney General's office — or maybe the California Energy Commission — step in to force a resolution?

Before making your own guess, take a moment to consider how we got here.

Utah-based Flying J Inc. bought the refinery from Shell Oil Co. in 2005, when the truck stop operator was still new to refining. Unlike Shell, Flying J — an outsider in an industry that heavily favors insiders — does not produce its own oil. That's two strikes against it right there.

Fast-forward to late 2008. Refiners nationwide are getting hammered by plummeting oil prices. Suddenly its lenders come knocking on Flying J's doors. Unable to pay up, the company files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in late December.

Local oil producers get nervous fast. Many cut off shipments to Big West. One of the majors, Shell, not only quits delivering its own oil, but by shutting off a pipeline that used to carry about a fifth of the refinery's crude, it also cuts off oil from other producers.

Word gets around inside the refinery that Shell won't budge until Flying J agrees to what executives there consider extraordinary payment terms. No deal. Stalemate.

Then come the conspiracy theories. The refinery's union and a Santa Monica watchdog group accuse Shell of trying to shut Big West down so that it can reap bigger profits at its Bay Area refinery. Sen. Barbara Boxer, D-Calif., asks the state Attorney General's office to step in and investigate, which it does.

Soon after, there's a big day in a Delaware bankruptcy court. The judge gives Flying J permission to spend $75 million to pay off "critical vendors" — suppliers deemed so important to the company's operations that they must jump to the front of the I-need-money line.

It's unclear whether this is a win for Big West, because Flying J gives no indication how it will spend the money. Locals tied up in the whole mess are left to wonder whether some of it will come to California to rescue the refinery.

The rest is predictable. There's an announcement that the refinery will close. Layoff talks begin. Big West prepares to mothball the plant.

The real question is how bad all of this is going to hurt. How long will the refinery be down? How long will its workers be out of a job? What will it mean to local oil producers who for so long have relied on Big West to buy their crude?

And what of the rest of us? Lately, we're told, the refinery's products go mostly to Kern County consumers. That means the price of gasoline should be heading higher. And no wonder: Big West normally produces 2 percent of the state's gasoline and 6 percent of its diesel. For its part, the energy commission says not to fear, as other refiners will surely step up to rebalance demand with supply.

Any solutions out there?