it is way to early to call the Nov. race. Even if Obama, Hillary had an outstanding lead in the double digits I wouldnt be betting on the results. To much can happen during the next six months.

I agree with you, sf, though one can still hope . . . but without "audacity."

Obama's made up more than 6 points any number of times--and other polls show him already ahead.

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As someone noted, there's a lot of time between now and November.  Neither the economy nor Iraq has crashed yet.

 Gosh, if this is true, we'd see a real difference in Rassmussen's polls.  Let's take a look, shall we?

From RealClearPolitics: http://www.realclearpolitic...

Rassmussen: 3/13 - 3/16 McCain +6

Rassmussen: 1/25 - 1/27 McCain +6

Rassmussen: 1/16 - 1/17 Obama +5

Rassmussen: 1/04 - 1/06 McCain +3

Yeah, Obama is polling lower in some Rassumussen polls.  Why is it that every time McCain breaks even, it's the end of the world for Democrats?  Oh, right, because they are going to win in November.  As your next President says, "There has never been anything false about hope."

 At last, there's something we can agree on.  That the race isn't won by any of the three running.  Yet.  Between now and election day they will pull out all stops and you can bet that all three are frantically digging down in the bottom of opponents closets looking for that edge.  And you can also bet that all three are frantically digging through their old memeories and closets to see if THEY have anything that would sabotage their own campaign.

I keep saying..just for giggles and grins,  watch Primary Colors.  It's classic politics at it's worst.

 We haven't seen the McCain-caused-the-fire stuff yet, for example.

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PC is classic politics in more ways than one, Nancy.  The guy who wrote it covered the political scene for years (still does) after lying about having written the book.  They don't call him Joke Line for nothing.

 Nancy, my favorite is "Wag the Dog", but the same sordid underbelly.  You can bet things are going to get ugly in September and October.

Of course it is too early to call.

But, the Wrong Reverend Wright is a gift that will keep on giving because it undermines the central narratives of Obama's campaign:  it is bad judgement and it is racial division.

The Iraq War is moving McCain's way and if it goes bad it will be spun, accurately, as Al Qaeda trying to influence the election.  What is a guarantee is that Obama's "wave the flag and flee" strategy will hurt him badly as the general election heats up.  Hell, even Stefanie Powers, his recently fled chief foreign policy advisor couldn't defend that nonsense and tried to assure the BBC that Obama was just telling Democrats what they wanted to hear.  That honesty got her the boot.

The economy could hurt McCain.  Everyone is already worried about it, so that is factored into the numbers.  If that worry doesn't get much worse, then Obama is in trouble.  The worry will likely get worse, but that is not certain:  the stimulus being injected real time is huge and there is only so much angst that the media can generate apart from conditions on the ground.  We will see:  the economy is the main reason I don't think this one is over yet.

Then there is the Democratic Convention in August:  if it goes as bloody as most people expect, McCain will win in a landslide no matter what is happening in Iraq or the economy.

The Iraq War is *NOT* going McCain's way.  He's just *SAYING* that, and the press are nodding along.  Al Qaeda isn't going to mount any major offenses which could undermine their chosen candidate, the Republican who thinks things are going his way. 

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Their publicly-announced strategy is to keep us in Iraq until we destroy ourselves.  It's worked for five years now, why change from a winning camel?

 Yeah but RF, he wrote the book anonymously for a reason...and he DID come out and admit that he was the author.  Although the people were fictional by name and some detail, the basis of truth was there.  And well cast I thought.  One of my favorite movies but then I think ole Billy Bob is great in all his movies.  And Kathy Bates as well.

Tom..You know..I have never watched that movie (WTD) all the way through.  I've seen bits and parts but now I'm going to have to go rent it I guess.   I know the basic premise but not the details.

I started reading Allen Drury novels waaaay back (Advise and Consent etc) and have always loved the intrigue of behind the scenes fictional novels.  Fiction though they may be, most have several grains of truth in them.   Authors are always advised to write about what they know.  Odd thing is..truth is often stranger than fiction.

Tom,  you are right that Rasmussen has given McCain 6% leads before, but the last time was 2 months ago, before Obama won Super Tuesday and became the Democratic front-runner.  Obama being down in mid-March, once we expect him to be the Democratic front-runner against the Republican frontrunner McCain, is a very different poll.

Tom, your implicit argument that Rasmussen tracking had wild swings in January and is thus unreliable is also a good one.  But that was obvious to everyone in January when the wild swinging was happening.  It was obvious to Rasmussen too, so they DOUBLED their sample size and revamped their likely voter selection:  Since then, Rasmussen has been much more reliable.

Tom, we have both recommended RealClearPolitics.  I think it's for the same reason: they average all the large recent polls in trying to get a better picture of the electorate's thinking.  The RealClearPolitics average gave McCain a lead over Obama for the first time in over a year... 

He wrote the book anonymously so he could eat his cake and have it too, Nancy.  He *DID* admit he was the author after repeatedly denying it.

Let's admit it, Reverend Wright will hurt Obama in the general, plain and simple. I knew this reverend was out there, albeit I did not totally comprehend the closeness of Obama and the Reverend Wright, conducting the marriage and baptizing of his girls, but Pub is right, and these early polls are only the start of a downward trend, I'm afraid.

Yes, it's extremely early in the polls, and we have an eternity until the conventions, much less the general, but the groups of voters Obama needs will take note and listen to the other side, McCain, due to Wright. Barack does carry large %'s in the higher educated, college grads and those who make over $100,000 yrly, coupled with the African-American vote, but with HS educated, those less than $50,000 annually, union workers and the rest of the party, Barack struggles to break even. Now with "GOD DAMN AMERICA," this will only drive those people away.

This is middle class America, people who live and die for this country, who work 60 hours a week to barely make ends meet, and are very pro-American. These people want to hear about hope not our shortfalls, while the educated understand and admit our country has struggled, and continues to struggle with race. While Wright may have some valid points about the treatment of minorities in America, but to accuse the government of introducing drugs to blacks, to say America is responsible for 9-11, and to out right denounce America, middle class America will take note and send a message. And I have not mentioned the indep's, who are hawkish on American foreign policy and liberal on domestic policies. I'm afraid these people will turn their back on Barack.

Reverend Wright will come back to haunt Barack, and I'm afraid it will take our best chances of turning around this country and flush them away.

Yes, Pub, Wright and his fiery anti white, anti American rants will probably end up being the defining issue behind Obama's eventual demise.

That leaves Hillary and McCain to duke it out in November.

McCain has aligned himself solidly with the Bush economic and foreign policy agenda which could end up being his undoing unless he distances himself clearly from the policies that got the country into this economic mess. His stance on the Iraq occupation will also cost him votes from a public fed up with the "war" and its cost at the expense of other national needs.

Meanwhile, Hillary seems to be successfully defining her policy agenda on the core issues, looking more logical and presidential each day.

Expect a significant leap ahead in the polls for her and a probable November victory over McCain.

  As your next President says, "There has never been anything false about hope."

Unless the message is delivered by Jeremiah Wright

Even then it's not the hope that's false.

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Saberhagen, Clinton cannot win enough delegates or votes in the primaries to overtake O'Bama.  Her only "hope" is that the superdelegates overrule the voters and give the nomination to her.  We'll see how O'Bama looks on Wednesday; he gained another delegate Saturday.

 Saber,

McCain has always been a cost cutter!

And that more than anything is what we need now

He isn't my first choice, nay even 5th choice, but he has always believed in cost cutting

and yes Tom & RF, et al, before you even start in---

WARS ARE NOT CHEAP!

(especially those done right!)

(and McCain will -- do it RIGHT that is)

 I still think Obama will win

The Dems are locked in now IMO

No matter what they do now (it doesn't appear in the math for HRC even with Mich and Fla) they won't go against the popular and delegate count now!

Not after all their palaver about  "disenfranchisement", etc.......

To the contrary, Chico, McBush is a good-money-after-bad type.  Witness the failed escalation in Iraq.

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(Which is at least hopeful--this country's going to need something other than a cost-cutter to pull us out of the Shrubbery.  And conservatives are going to howl.)

 Only if you subscribe to the theory that the money was mispent (in the aggregate) in the first place

I happen to think that the war in Iraq may be a defining point in history for the West

And I mean in a good sense

Of course those on the Left will NEVER buy that

But had we not gone into Iraq then, we might have been forced to further down the road

I just wish we had eschewed being politically correct in fighting the war and really taken charge

Powell doctrine of not only overwhelming force (even without Turkey) and follow up with the Pottery Barn Theory (we broke it -- its ours -- establish martial (as opposed to Marshall) law and restore order right off no matter what!)

If we give up now the money will indeed be wasted IMO!

 The money has already been wasted, leave now or stay 100 years. We fumbled Iraq from Paul Brenner to current. While we fought the war in a near perfect fashion, we executed the post war, either occupation or liberation, in the most miserable and haphazard fashion possible.

Something struck me last night while watching John Adams, Iraq does not have the will, or political will, to become one country. Our colonies were 13 independent "countries," articulated by Thomas Jefferson; much like the true differences between the Shites and Sunni's, much less the Kurds. However, while our founding fathers debated endlessly in the Continental Congress,yet  in the end all the colonies put aside their differences for the betterment of a new nation. I thought to bad there is not a John Adams and/or Ben Franklin to work both on the floor of Iraqi Congress and in the closed door rooms to encourage leaders of all three tribes, factions, to put aside their differences for a better Iraq. Right now, and for the foreseeable future, "I want" is more important than for "all of us." Until that is accomplished, Iraq will never progress much further than today's somewhat uneasy peace.

I wish someone could convince the Iraqis of a better country by working together, but their anger and mistrust of each other will never cease. Therefore, the best this country can do is slowly draw down US combat forces, work together with the UN, the EU, and Russia, while allowing countries in the region to have a voice, and maybe, in a few years some sort of a country can truly be formed. But, until then, we are, the US, are going to just throw good money after bad, and chase our tail. Not a sound foreign policy.

On the subject of HC vs BO, Wright has single handily set the Obama campaign back, maybe beyond real repair, and HC does not have the delegates to win the nomination, unless the party fathers side step the people's voice, which is a recipe for disaster. Therefore, as usual, the party came through once again, circled the wagons and shot each other. So, unless this country suffers a real economic meltdown in 8 months, I think we just gave McCain the White House.

 we still have a spring, summer and fall before the election. Also dont forget August is always a fun month where candidates screw up on a regular basis.

I do think we are going to have a very deep ressesion far worse than we seen in several decades. This is based on home forclosures, weak dollar, high price of oil, increase in food/energy cost w/ credit debt at an all time high.

Spam code: Deddy

Flightmedic~you may well be right ,it is not the first time my party has done something amazingly stupid. But it is months to go and ,as I believe Nancy correctly points out everybody is digging for gold,er dirt.

 If we give up now the money will indeed be wasted IMO

Classic good-money-after-bad statement.  The decision to invade Iraq is bar none the worst mistake the US has ever made.  It was lost from the initial invasion and was exactly what bin Laden was praying for.  Guess allah came through for him.

 What has happen on the Bin Laden search...I thought he was Number 1 enemy of the US? What isnt Bush Co. looking for him.

They disbanded the unit looking for him, sf.  Bush has given bin Laden everything he asked for; I guess there's no point in looking for him any more.

Publican, McCain beat Obama in the RCP poll in late January/early  February of this year. With the release of the latest polls, McCain is barely clinging to a lead and will probably be losing again by Wednesday.  His numbers will collapse by the end of the week and Obama will be back to his regular 5-10 point leads.

The problem with all of this is that just a week or two ago, all the news was that McCain was banging a lobbyist on the side.  This too shall pass.  Nobody really cares about this because there's nothing here and Obama is still going to win and win big in August and November.

Wow.  Big predictions.  I will wager with you about:

"McCain is barely clinging to a lead and will probably be losing again by Wednesday."

AND

"His numbers will collapse by the end of the week and Obama will be back to his regular 5-10 point leads."

The first is pretty straightforward.  If Obama is leading in the RealClearPolitics national head-to-head Wednesday at 6pm you win and if McCain is leading or there is a tie in the RealClearPolitics national head-to-head Wednesday at 6pm, I win.

The second is trickier.  I propose that if McCain has fallen behind by more than 3 points in the RealClearPolitics national head-to-head Sunday night at 6pm you win and if he has not, I win.

How about if you win 1 and I win 1 it is a tie.  If either of us wins both it is a clear win.  How about loser posts a blog admitting that the other has a better understanding of Presidential politics Sunday night?

And yeah, I just checked and saw that spike for a McCain lead in mid January.  My bad.  Still, that graph was dominating for Obama almost all year.

Deal?

 Take the bet, Tom.  Publican and gambling... ugh...

Publican, done deal.  I'll see you here tomorrow at 6.

See you Sunday afternoon, Tom.

Publican, sorry I'm late.  McCain held his lead after dropping within .4.  Well played. 

I guess you're in the clear.  I'll hope that no one else has any polls from last week to drop into the averages...

 Obama has a history of making up larger gaps than these. 

No chicken-counting here yet. 

While I think the gap will widen rather than narrow, Tom is just right in pointing that the bet depends to some extent on when and which polls RealClearPolitics puts into their list.  They include all the biggest ones, it just takes a day or 2 sometimes...

 Publican, I had thought about doing some advance research to find out what polls were in the works, but I thought I'd rather just roll the dice.  The two polls I'm really interested in are the two tracking polls though.

 same here Tom.

 OK, Publican, I got my bacon handed to me.  I'll have something up by 6....

I like bacon!  I'm sure you will return the favor at some point...

Happy Easter, Tom.

You can bet I'll be trying.  :)

Happy Easter to you too.  http://people.bakersfield.c...