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Our Next President 12/4/07
It's hard to believe after only a year of campaigning and mudslinging, rampant fighting etc. that we've survived to this point. With the first primary in a month, let's throw some thoughts out there on who's going to win this thing.
Full disclosure: I'm an Edwards supporter, so if I bump him higher than you think he should be, call that an inherent bias. On the Democratic side: Obama is looking really good and about where he needs to be. If he can pull Iowa, I think he'll take the thing in a walk. If Clinton takes Iowa and New Hampshire, she's got it. As for Edwards, he's got some game in Iowa and might take it, but if he doesn't pull New Hampshire and South Carolina after that, he's still toast. On the Republican side: Everyone loves Huckabee. He's surging in the polls for a number of reasons but I can't tell if this is a sea change or just another Fred-Thompson-style rush. He's also got the advantage of being the sole Republican frontrunner who doesn't invite a third party run from the Christian right. Giuliani is slipping along with Clinton, Romney is holding up and Thompson and McCain are bringing up the last of the pack. I think it's going to be Romney in the early states and Huckabee close behind. In the general, I'm going to say it ends up Romney vs. Obama. Obama wins in the general, margin highly dependant on VP choices and third parties. 31 comments from 15 users
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posted by
TomW
on Dec 4, 2007 at 10:52 AM
How do y'all see it shaking out?
posted by
blognroll
on Dec 4, 2007 at 11:02 AM
Anything could happen to shake things up, but I would say that, nothwithstanding something unexpected, you may be right on the money. I don't agree with his positions on all of the issues, but if it were simply a personality contest, I'd give it to Edwards. With the health crisis he and his wife are facing in terms of her battle with cancer, I have to give both of them props for hanging in there together. posted by
TomW
on Dec 4, 2007 at 11:23 AM
Democratic side is easier for me to gauge right now, but Romney seems solidly ahead without a lot of hype on the Republican side. He's going to have a "conversation" tomorrow about his faith, so maybe his internal numbers are telling him something else, or maybe he feels like he needs to make sure Iowa gets locked up so he's not fighting in New Hampshire. If Huckabee doesn't pull off South Carolina, he's probably toast on Super Tuesday.
posted by
sagefever
on Dec 4, 2007 at 11:40 AM
I feeling Obama in my bones,right now...and strangely Huckabee,who I like. Romney has the "look" and that speech tomorrow about his faith is an important one,I think. There are still so many variables~winter break,young folks etc...She who will not be named absolutely can not win.Oops, personal bias showing there. I'd like to a woman,just not that one,I could vote for one day. Richardson,my choice,is looking like he is ready to be VP . It is going to be a great race this time and I am hoping for less hate, more people motivated to vote and who ever wins..the American people uniting behind a leader.Geeze,I am such an optimist. BTW Tom, thank you so much for your kind words yesterday~they mean a lot.
posted by
adampayne
on Dec 4, 2007 at 11:54 AM
I have no idea who the nominees will ultimately be, but like you, Tom, I 'm a big fan of John Edwards. The biggest issue that works hardest against Hillary Clinton is George W. Bush. I think people really want to turn the page on the family dynasties running the show. Both Edwards and Obama are forces of change. Hillary can not make that claim, at least not convincingly. It will be interesting to see in the Republican camp which powerful forces knock out the other on the way to the dance. Giuiliani and Romney potentially draw from many of the same sources. Giuliani should have much of the defense industry money, but my guess is that Romney has big backing from many Wall Street people, particularly in the private equity and banking sectors. Huckabee has been a huge surprise for many of the pundits, but he and Ron Paul are the only Republican candidates brave enough to venture into the Bill Maher show, and both have done extremely well on the air. McCain will do the Daily Show, but all the other Republican candidates seem intimidated by liberal comedic hosts. posted by
Katatak
on Dec 4, 2007 at 11:56 AM
The Libertarian in me supports Ron Paul. He shames both law and order Republicans and Democrats by wanting to dump our contemptible drug war, an issue demanding national debate, and he is willing to do it.
His stance on illegal aliens is correct, but more is needed since this country can't simply put a wall around itself. We need "rational" immigration that respects our sovereignty and at the same time invites people in a "legal" manner. We are now a slave nation and it sickens me. This has to be resolved and Paul gets to the nut of part of it. My position on health care will come later. Tom: By the way- compliments on that other post of yours. posted by
TomW
on Dec 4, 2007 at 12:09 PM
Sage, Huckabee may be able to pull it out, but he hasn't been picked apart yet. I'd say his big strikes in the primary are that he raised taxes, he supported more government run healthcare, and he's another Arkansas governor. In the general, his flat tax stance will kill him once people realize that it'll raise taxes on everyone making below 50,000/year. On a side note, seriously, thanks for your kind words every day. You really do touch people here and I don't step up enough and say so. Thank you. posted by
jfrancais
on Dec 4, 2007 at 12:10 PM
Who is this Ron Paul guy? He sounds interesting. I've been hearing a lot about him over the past two days. My inlaws in Tennessee are friends with him, apparently. posted by
TomW
on Dec 4, 2007 at 12:13 PM
jfrancis, long story short, Ron Paul is the Republican version of Dennis Kucinich. Short, loud, a bit nuts, and right on the issues just often enough to draw a decent crowd.
posted by
TomW
on Dec 4, 2007 at 12:14 PM
Katatak: other post of mine?
posted by
robbwillis
on Dec 4, 2007 at 02:55 PM
The more debates I see, the more it seems like I'll be voting third-party.
posted by
sagefever
on Dec 4, 2007 at 03:00 PM
*now* there would be a match up ,Dennis and Ron! No wait,something might actually get accomplished and we can't have that.
posted by
robbwillis
on Dec 4, 2007 at 03:10 PM
Too bad Fred Thomspon and Bill Richardson can't be on the same ticket. I can barely keep my eyes open just thinking about what a dynamic duo that would be.
posted by
sagefever
on Dec 4, 2007 at 03:14 PM
lol...no napping Robb!
posted by
montfred
on Dec 4, 2007 at 03:20 PM
I just took the quiz, over at Political Base (more match-up quiz's) and my view of the major issues, matches up best with Bill Richardson, the site offered this blurb on Mr. Richardson, "Experienced in state, national, and international politics, Richardson has been a Congressman, an ambassador to the United Nations Security Council, and is now the governor of New Mexico. He is pro-choice, strongly favors rights for the LGBT population, advocates for affirmative action in government contracts, and even championed the idea that Congress should revoke the original authority it gave to go to war with Iraq. Richardson also supports the death penalty and gun ownership rights."But if I were to wager, I'd pick Obama as the most likely candidate for the dem.'s, and I'd go with a long shot for the 'pub.'s with McCain. posted by
randomfactor
on Dec 4, 2007 at 03:27 PM
I came out Richardson here, too, but he's dropping out of the race in a couple of days. Tied for second are Dodd and Obama, but I'd rather see Dodd as Majority Leader and Obama as VP for a while. I'm still supporting Edwards, though.
posted by
robbwillis
on Dec 4, 2007 at 03:35 PM
I came up Biden, Richardson, Hillary. I kind of like Biden, despite what random says, but no way I'd vote for Hillary.
posted by
TomW
on Dec 4, 2007 at 03:38 PM
I hadn't heard Richardson was dropping, RF. That bumps Hillary most I think and it may signal a deal as VP for him to drop before Iowa. I still think Obama squeaks it out.
posted by
steveeswenson
on Dec 4, 2007 at 03:46 PM
I'm an Edwards fan too. I predicted a long time ago this country will not elect Hilary or Obama. Or any of the Republicans.I just hope Edwards hangs in there long enough for the tide to turn in his favor. posted by
robbwillis
on Dec 4, 2007 at 03:50 PM
Richardson: No veep post for me Of course, he is a politican... No word on him dropping out. Random is such a rumorrmonger. posted by
randomfactor
on Dec 4, 2007 at 04:33 PM
The unsubstantiated rumor is that he's dropping out in exchange for a cabinet-level post--presumably with Clinton. I could be wrong, but the guy's certainly not going to go through all the primaries. Would make sense for him to cut a deal now when he can get good terms. I'd like to see him run for the Senate, though. Replace that crook Domeneci.
posted by
randomfactor
on Dec 4, 2007 at 04:36 PM
Oh, and JulieAnnie has stepped down from heading the company which bears his name. Does he really think that'll keep folks from finding out just who he's working for?
posted by
TomW
on Dec 4, 2007 at 05:12 PM
Robb, I'd heard Richardson has said he's not going to take a VP position, but as you also point out, he's a politician. I like Random's idea of him running for Senate though.
posted by
TangledUpInBlue
on Dec 4, 2007 at 07:37 PM
Oh my god! Ron Paul IS just like Dennis!! I'm with Obama, always have been. I can't believe rudy is still in it though... If he had pulled the shyte he's pulling now back in Clinton's days (the first one), he would have been impeached! Nowaday, presidents can get away with murder AND extramarital affairs.... who knew?!
posted by
drilnliftcrude
on Dec 4, 2007 at 07:50 PM
I won't even hazard a guess at this point, but I just cannot believe that anyone who can't win his home state can get elected. That would probably eliminate Edwards and Romney. And if I'm not convinced a candidate will be tough on illegal immigration, I won't be holding my nose to vote for anyone.
posted by
RoyTullis
on Dec 4, 2007 at 10:07 PM
Edwards scares me more than Hillary. If I was a dimocrat I would be forced to vote for Obama.
posted by
ChicoEsquela
on Dec 5, 2007 at 07:26 AM
I would have to vote for Obama too. Edwards is scary Roy. He channels little kids, dead or alive, he can convince pinhead juries to award millions of which he takes 33 to 40%. He hates one of the two Americas (not sure which the multi millionaire trail atty and hedge fund mgr 17,000 sq ft hooch one or the poor old dumb a$$ Republican one.............. posted by
AudreyB
on Dec 5, 2007 at 07:32 AM
The campaign is turning ugly. Obama and Edwards started it by attacking Hillary. Now she's going negative too. I predict that by November 2008 the campaign will look like a gladiatorial gore fest that could rival anything in the coliseum. It's going to be hard to pick from this pack of dogs. posted by
TomW
on Dec 5, 2007 at 07:34 AM
Roy, Chico, thanks for chiming in. What's bad about Edwards? I don't like the big house he built, but his message and his focus are spot on.
posted by
TomW
on Dec 5, 2007 at 07:46 AM
Audrey, we'll have our candidates by Feb 6th so I think things will get nasty between now and then with a break for Christmas. Once Iowa and New Hampshire are done, most of the nastiness, at least inside the parties, will be done.
posted by
AudreyB
on Dec 5, 2007 at 07:57 AM
TomW Once both parties has picked their candidate after the primaries, they can use the ammo that was generated by each party during the pre primary debates. Only the attacks will become uglier, if possible.
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