Real Name: Tom Webster Gender: male Member Since: August 14, 2006 Last Signed In: July 04, 2008 Profile Views: 10969 Blog Views: 12166 Not Yet Drinking Liberally Drinking Liberally? Bush Announces The End of the Surge McCain Breaks His Own Laws McCain's Idea of Love Unofficial "Bloggers' Brunch" at Dagny's Saturday Republican State Parties in Disarray Publican's Political Genius I did not have sexual relations with that woman! Amazing Obama Video August 06 September 06 October 06 November 06 December 06 January 07 February 07 March 07 April 07 May 07 June 07 July 07 August 07 September 07 October 07 November 07 December 07 January 08 February 08 March 08 April 08 May 08 June 08 July 08 
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New Hampshire Primary Thread and Predictions
Here we are nearing the end of the first primary of 2008. Polls close at 5 pst and I'll be here all evening.
My predictions: Obama pulls a double digit win and Edwards and Clinton tie. On the Republican side, I think Romney pulls it off with McCain in second and Paul coming in 3rd. What say you? 49 comments from 14 users
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posted by
TomW
on Jan 8, 2008 at 04:23 PM
I gotta say, I'm fired up since the results from Dixville Notch.
posted by
montfred
on Jan 8, 2008 at 04:26 PM
Obama, Edwards, Richardson :) McCain, Romney, Huckabee posted by
blognroll
on Jan 8, 2008 at 04:26 PM
Once again, TomW, I would say that you're right on the money with your predictions.
posted by
robbwillis
on Jan 8, 2008 at 04:27 PM
Sounds about right, but I don't think Clinton and Paul will do that well. Now if it were a Fox telephone poll, I'd bet the house on Ron Paul, lol!
posted by
TomW
on Jan 8, 2008 at 04:30 PM
Ouch, Montfred. Richardson of Clinton? As for McCain, he's relying on the indy vote and I think that's going to break against him. I'm pegging him to lose by 4. Huckabee will place below Paul and Thompson but will still be ahead of Giuliani.
posted by
TomW
on Jan 8, 2008 at 04:30 PM
Thanks, Doc.
posted by
TomW
on Jan 8, 2008 at 04:33 PM
No kidding, Robb. The thing about New Hampshire is that it's a stronghold of the libertarian wing of the Republican party. That's why Huckabee gets creamed (pro-theo and big government) and why I put Paul up there. Just to have a number on the board, I'll say he posts 16% of the Republican vote.
posted by
randomfactor
on Jan 8, 2008 at 04:37 PM
I don't see Edwards and Clinton tying for second place (dammit!) I think Sen. Clinton will get a solid second, and that will keep her campaign just barely alive enough. . I'd like to see Weathervane McCain get the top New Hampshire slot, but I do want to see a fight-to-the-death on that side to keep the R's as demoralized and divided as possible. I'll bet McCain by one percentage point over the Huckster. I think he'll do better than Paul will. But I freely admit I don't know anything of the R side in that state. posted by
robbwillis
on Jan 8, 2008 at 04:41 PM
New Hampshire is not chuck-full of evangelicals like Iowa either. Sounds like a nice place to live.
posted by
randomfactor
on Jan 8, 2008 at 04:41 PM
Early returns seem to show Giuliani doing much better than they'd thought. Not close to the lead, but better. Must be a large cross-dressing population in New Hampshire.
posted by
sfinboston52
on Jan 8, 2008 at 05:12 PM
I think McCain will win for the GOP followed by Romney and Huckabee. Obama will win w/ single digit lead, with Hillary following 2nd and Edwards. I think Edwards will bow out before the Feb. 5th. posted by
sagefever
on Jan 8, 2008 at 05:14 PM
MSNBC has called it for McCain.
posted by
TomW
on Jan 8, 2008 at 05:15 PM
Early returns will probably favor Clinton and McCain. Watching them come in now, and even though CNN is calling it, I think it'll get close.
posted by
TomW
on Jan 8, 2008 at 05:17 PM
BTW, anyone seeing the side by side of vote totals?14,028 for Clinton 8,109 for McCain posted by
sfinboston52
on Jan 8, 2008 at 05:36 PM
They are saying close to 500,000 people voted today in NH. That would be a huge turn out and will be very interesting to see the final count. NH has a large independent group.
posted by
johnburnssucks
on Jan 8, 2008 at 05:47 PM
Must be a large cross-dressing population in New Hampshire. Who does The Mob vote for? posted by
TomW
on Jan 8, 2008 at 06:01 PM
Right now:Clinton 39% Obama 36% McCain: 38% Romney: 29% Big surprise to me is Thompson with 1% (597 votes) posted by
TomW
on Jan 8, 2008 at 06:22 PM
McCain is giving his speech now. "My friends....."\Sorry, it's actually a good speech. He'll be an interesting candidate if he makes it. posted by
sfinboston52
on Jan 8, 2008 at 06:39 PM
I am hoping McCain wins the primary. I believe he is someone who has more integrate than Huckabee, Romney or Gulliani.
posted by
TomW
on Jan 8, 2008 at 06:57 PM
sfinboston, I think he'd make an interesting Republican. He supports the war and supports Bush's "path to citizenship" for illegal immigrants. I'd have said that makes him unelectable and it was why he couldn't get traction before. The religious right doesn't trust him, so that'll be a challenge as well.
posted by
RoyTullis
on Jan 8, 2008 at 07:08 PM
If McCain should win the Republican nomination I would vote for him over any Democrat running but I would have to hold my nose.
posted by
sfinboston52
on Jan 8, 2008 at 07:31 PM
Tom I agree, but can Romney or Huckabee really be electable? Both have a boat load of baggage.
posted by
RoyTullis
on Jan 8, 2008 at 08:22 PM
They may only be electable against Hilliary and possibly Obama.
posted by
tkozy
on Jan 8, 2008 at 08:24 PM
It appears that the Democrats out voted the Republicans by a wide margin again in New Hampshire.
Approximate numbers are Democrats 225,000 and Republicans 195,000. posted by
TomW
on Jan 8, 2008 at 11:15 PM
Well, my predictions got whacked. If I was anymore wrong, I could get a job as a pundit.
posted by
TomW
on Jan 8, 2008 at 11:16 PM
Neither Huckabee or Romney is electable. Heck, even McCain is going to be a tough sell with his positions.
posted by
gube
on Jan 8, 2008 at 11:35 PM
I glad Hillary won. Its fun to watch the republicans try and tear her down. I think scares some people
posted by
sfinboston52
on Jan 9, 2008 at 04:13 AM
Well I hope they all stay in on both sides until Feb. 5th. That will allow the majority of us to decide who we really want for each of our political parties.
posted by
ChicoEsquela
on Jan 9, 2008 at 06:59 AM
TomW What positions? Hillarious will be crying every time she gets behind now. My wife's comment after Her Thighness won:: "Didn't they have a Sheriff down there who did that?" posted by
ChicoEsquela
on Jan 9, 2008 at 07:24 AM
Roy, like you I know people who really know the true skinny on McCain and his POW days (your brother and my old cohorts) as well some of his actions since. McCain Finegold was the biggest abomination in recent history as far as making the political process fair. He has resurrected himself somewhat on the Iraq war I will vote for him over any Dem in the race. At least with him we will go down fighting and not just foll over to jihadist socialism. BTW my wife's comment on McCain:: "His arms are too short!" Haha! As good as any reason to not like him I guess..................... posted by
RoyTullis
on Jan 9, 2008 at 10:11 AM
Chico. As I said before, if McCain wins the nomination I will vote for him over any Democrat but while doing so I will hold my nose.
posted by
steveeswenson
on Jan 9, 2008 at 10:50 AM
I'm still holding out that South Carolina is the beginning of John Edwards comeback.As for McCain, I met him in Bakersfield and he impressed me as a very personable, friendly man. He stood apart from most other politicians I've encountered. posted by
MakesThingsGo
on Jan 9, 2008 at 10:57 AM
Steve, I think that'd be ideal. It would make Nevada a big deal and mean that Super Tuesday really mattered.
posted by
ChicoEsquela
on Jan 9, 2008 at 10:59 AM
John Edwards will embark on a campaign to neuter all the corporations in America At least those he doesn't like (Big Oil, Pharm, Manuf, Produce, Cattle, even Big Health Care, in short just about everything but Big legal and socialized medicine and other bureaucracies) The DOW will go to 5,000 & 401k's, SEP's, IRA's will be decimated Interest rates will be "Carteresque" Law Schools will prosper As will Business & Public Admin Schools Hurray!
posted by
MakesThingsGo
on Jan 9, 2008 at 11:01 AM
Chico, by neuter, I assume you mean obey the law. As for your predictions on the DOW, quick: Does the DOW do better under Democratic or Republican Presidents?
posted by
ChicoEsquela
on Jan 9, 2008 at 11:04 AM
you are referring to Clinton It wasn't his doing quick, when did it hit 14,000? wrong again by neutering I meant increased regulation posted by
ChicoEsquela
on Jan 9, 2008 at 11:11 AM
"It thus seems that the difference in realized returns can be attributed to the market being systematically positively surprised by Democratic policies," the professors wrote" from CNN and mkt study IOW stock mkt gains under Dem Admins are due to policies not being as bad as Republican investors predicted Of course, John Edwards will change all that posted by
randomfactor
on Jan 9, 2008 at 11:13 AM
When did it hit 14000? 1500 ago. And what was the dollar worth then, as opposed to under Clinton? . By "increased regulation" *I* mean: government doing its job. posted by
ChicoEsquela
on Jan 9, 2008 at 12:02 PM
Clinton only did good economically When he had Repub controlled House Which supports my theory Split Govt => good govt (because they tend to do less legislation, ergo less regulation) But with Edwards, we will have Dem controled House and Senate (hope not veto proof 60) and an oil burning anti corp WH Bad news. You'll see posted by
RoyTullis
on Jan 9, 2008 at 12:04 PM
Don't count out Giuliani yet. He is putting a lot of effort into Florida. Florida is a winner take all as far as it's 101 delegates go. If Giuliani takes Florida and New York he is in pretty good shape. It's getting interesting on both sides. If Hilliary cries a few more times she may pull it off.
posted by
ChicoEsquela
on Jan 9, 2008 at 12:09 PM
Fla delegates have primarily been "taken off the table" according to someone on news this morning But I agree, Rudy's strategy may still be operative. PA, CA, super Tuesday These piddly little firsters No delegates to speak of. We'll have to see if the McCain and Huckabilly's "Mo" means much. If it doesn't and Rudy takes the big delegate no. states, then he was right all along. I think any of the top Repubs can beat Hillary if handled right though Obama might have been harder I think Hill's $$ and machine will carry her through the "big" states! posted by
RoyTullis
on Jan 9, 2008 at 12:14 PM
Chico. That's just the DNC that stripped Florida of its delegates. Still will count for Republicans.
posted by
randomfactor
on Jan 9, 2008 at 12:15 PM
The economy in general tends to do better with a Democrat in the White House. But this time the incoming Democrat is going to have an Augean stable to clean out.
posted by
ChicoEsquela
on Jan 9, 2008 at 12:24 PM
I wondered. Thx Roy. So Rudy's Fla, CA, PA, etc. theory may still win out. I find it laughable how much is made in the LSM of these first little primaries but its how they make their $$!
posted by
TomW
on Jan 9, 2008 at 06:14 PM
Chico, it first hit 14,000 under Bush and now it's right back to where it was when he started 7 years ago. There's a very real possibility that the DOW will actually be down over his whole term. Now for my question: Who does better with the markets?
posted by
montfred
on Jan 9, 2008 at 06:36 PM
A study on this question, by Elliott Parker, Ph.D., who is a Professor of Economics at the University of Nevada-Reno can be read at http://www.coba.unr.edu/eco...
posted by
ChicoEsquela
on Jan 10, 2008 at 08:32 AM
Just FYI TomW Not that it will do you or your posse (thx Tah) any good (with your revisionist history tendencies) Jan 19, 2001: Open 10,686.00 high 10,792.10 low 10,448.90 close 10,587.60 volume 13,488,177 posted by
randomfactor
on Jan 10, 2008 at 03:49 PM
posted by
RoyTullis
on Jan 10, 2008 at 10:05 PM
Random. I see you are reading your "Bible" again.
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