Today is the first multi-state contest of the primary election season with contests in Nevada and South Carolina.  While Nevada is for both parties today, South Carolina is Republican only, with the Democratic contest a week from today.  So what do the tea leaves say today?

Democrats have an interesting race set up in Nevada with party caucus weighting and caucus locations playing a huge role.  Obama managed to get the endorsement of the culinary workers union and they are allowed to caucus right on the strip where they work and their votes actually count more than regular caucus goers.  Definitely an advantage to Obama.  Clinton has also shot herself in the foot complaining about the house rules.  Nevada goes to Obama over Clinton by 5.  Why not more?  John Edwards makes a strong showing with the unions and he's got die hard, knowledgeable caucus people.  I'll stick my neck out and say Edwards edges out Clinton one more time.

On the Republican side in Nevada, I think Huckabee will do better than expected based on his caucus performance in Iowa, but not well enough to win.  Caucusing hurts McCain and helps Romney since you won't have a lot of independents.  Based on all that, I think Romney takes it by about 5 over McCain.  My "stick your neck out" prediction is putting Ron Paul in 3rd.

Last contest of the day is the South Carolina Primary.  Since it's Republican only, indies stay home and McCain loses here.  I'll put Romney and Huckabee near a dead heat with Romney pulling it off by a hair.  I think Thompson pulls up even with McCain and no one will care.  He'll probably be out before Super Tuesday.

What do your tea leaves say?

Voters are at the polls across Michigan as we speak, casting their votes in that state's primary.  There's a bit of strangeness in this primary so we'll go over the oddities first.

First, while the Democratic Primary is being held today, the state Democrats have been stripped of their delegates as punishment for moving their primary forward.  In response to and support of that, Edwards and Obama have pulled their names off the ballot so even though the Democratic Primary is today, Clinton is the only major candidate on the ballot.

Which brings us to the second point:  Michigan has an open primary which means that people can request a ballot from any party and can vote in either primary.  How this will play out is anyone's guess, so here's mine:  Huckabee is going to show strongly here.  His supporters don't need wall-to-wall coverage to know it's election day.  McCain gets a big boost because he won't be competing with Democrats for the independants.  Romney is the hometown hero, the prodigal son.  All this in the mix plus the polls I'll post below, I'm gonna hand it to Romney by less than 5.

Sorry, having table issues.  You can see the original here: http://www.presidentpolls20...


McCain       & nbsp;      Romney       & nbsp;       &n bsp;  Huckabee        ;       Giuliani        ;        Paul       &nb sp;   

27%	24%	15%	6%	8%	5%
27%	29%	12%	7%	7%	4%
27%	26%	19%	6%	4%	5%
27%	26%	19%	6%	4%	5%
22%	30%	17%	6%	5%	7%
22%	27%	16%	4%	5%	4%
34%	27%	15%	5%	9%	4%
22%	20%	17%	6%	5%	7%
25%	26%	17%	9%	8%	9%

Here we are nearing the end of the first primary of 2008.  Polls close at 5 pst and I'll be here all evening.

My predictions:  Obama pulls a double digit win and Edwards and Clinton tie.
On the Republican side, I think Romney pulls it off with McCain in second and Paul coming in 3rd.

What say you?