We know the universe is large, quite beyond natural comprehension.  Some scientists estimate the universe is actually more than 150 billion light-years wide.  Filled with starry galaxies, and each star having as much as a 50% chance of possessing planets, we come to some interesting implications.  Especially if life developed on our trifling speck of Earth, then probability suggests life exists elsewhere. 

So why don’t I believe in UFO’s and alien visitations? 

I think besides the obvious arguments, such as we haven’t been (conclusively) visited yet, and most “sightings” are quickly determined to be hoaxes or mistakes, the inherent problems with traversing the vast expanses of empty space, it’s difficult for the skeptical inquirer to accept that we’re being visited (or ever have been) by extra-terrestrial intelligences. 

But my greatest argument, believe it or not, is one I have never heard before, so I propose it here.  Although there is surely life on other planets, and some of it intelligent, I hypothesize it has never visited Earth because of economic factors.

Yes, economics.

The fundamental laws of economics are natural laws which govern the existence of all life.  For example, life cannot expand unless there is a plentiful supply of commodities to facilitate that expansion (food, space to grow, & etc).  Once that supply runs low, expansion slows and eventually may halt (supply).  Also, beings (and organisms) will first consume those resources which are easy to obtain, then consume those more difficult to obtain, an finally, consume the last of their resources by obtaining the most difficult ones, but only at a price afforded by ability and necessity (diminishing returns). 

This means, the other beings, like us, will consume natural resources within their easy reach, such as those on the surface of their planet.  They will then look to harvest materials through recycling and  in those places which are harder to get to, such as under the surface.  Finally, as resources run low, they will consider extreme measures of finding resources.  Unfortunately, that effort will be necessarily expensive.  The result is, by the time ET has to leave home to get more resources, he will not have the resources to facilitate that endeavor. 

I think this is compelling.  Consider our example.  We might like to build a starship Enterprise and sail the stars, but what kind of effort would go into such construction?  It is difficult enough for us to fly the shuttle, so imagine the challenge of developing an interstellar space program.  By the time we accomplished this task, which would only be motivated by economic necessity, the means to develop the technology and actually construct such things would be prohibitively expensive, requiring the expenditure of resources we will no longer possess. 

So the conclusion is thus…humans and aliens are planet-bound, forever.  Sure, we might make the moon.  Mars is much less likely  Beyond our solar system, forget it.  Other beings, it will be the same situation.  Here on Earth, we are within a century of expending most of our one-time grant of natural resources that are readily available at affordable economic prices.  By the time we appreciate the need of traveling to the stars, it will be too late. 

No star trek for us then, and none for ET, and he has never been here and he never will be.  All thanks to basic economic laws of supply, and diminishing returns. 

Bad news for Star Trek fans and Hollywood I guess.  What’s your take?

I suppose we’d better take great care of the one spaceship we do have…planet Earth!  We'd better, it's where I keep all my stuff!