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montfred - > montfreds blog -> Trading in politics? Don't sell it short
Trading in politics? Don't sell it short

I was really depressed when I read the news that The Bakersfield Californian (TBC) has fired Leonel Martinez,  because the newspapers executive editor Mike Jenner, TBC decider; decided he needed a columnist who "will focus more on local issues and local people." So I did what I always do, when the TBC  depresses me,  I tossed TBC into the recycle bin and  turned to Internet to read political columnists, who focus on the important national interests of our country, and it's citizens.  Today I turned to an interesting,  Joel Stein column, published in the L.A Times, on June 27, 2008, oh, he isn't published in TBC, because Stein doesn't write about the neo-con issues and the neo-cons perspective, which is required to be published in TBC.

Here's a little snippet of what he had to say:

"...The sites (InTrade and Iowa Electronics Markets) work like the stock market, only people buy and sell candidates' electability, along with other important world events, like the winner of "American Idol." The candidates' chances are valued on a scale of 0 to 100, with 100 meaning electoral victory. Right now on InTrade, for example, Obama-to-win is the favorite, trading at 64, compared with John McCain at 32.

These "prediction markets" are plenty accurate. The day before the 2004 presidential election, the InTrade market correctly predicted the winner in each state; in 2006, it got all the Senate races right. It seems that when large groups of people gamble with their own money, they're incredibly smart, though that disputes everything I've ever witnessed at a blackjack table.

 

Unlike Iowa Electronics Markets, InTrade, though, has lots of action. You can bet on whether Osama bin Laden will be "captured/neutralized" by the end of the year (selling at 13, which means the investors give it a 13% chance of happening)... But the real money at InTrade is being put on the presidential election. Bethan Lilja, the CEO of babyphotographer.com in Boston, early on put some serious money on McCain to win the Republican nomination. She wound up with a 19 times return on her cash, netting nearly $250,000.

I dropped $500 into my InTrade account and quickly learned that lots of things I thought would be exciting to bet on had been determined by the market long ago. There's a 94.9% chance that the Democrats will control the House, and a 93.6% chance they'll run the Senate. If I wanted to make babyphotographer.com kind of money, I was going to have to take some big risks.

I put $200 on Clinton to be Obama's running mate (16%), thinking that was pretty smart compared with Virginia Sen. Jim Webb's chances (19%).I figured there would be some media chatter saying Clinton was the logical choice, which would spike her numbers, at which point I would cash in..."

(read more)

This has not worked out well  Stein writes, but his column really intrigued me, so I dropped in on InTrade, and as I scrolled down the list of wager's, non of them jumped out to me as money makers, until I scrolled down to this possible betting option, the Economic Numbers - US Economy in Recession (*see contract rules for definition*). 

Now, I don't want to bet that the country I fought for, is going to go into a recession, but I'm surprised that the expert odds maker's (the wagering public) over at InTrade think that there is a 73% chance (and climbing) that our economy is going to turn around; and avoid a recession, but hey,  I sure could use a little extra cash.

I think I'll study the contract rules, just in case.

montfred

Posted in the Politics interest group.
Topics: Bakersfield Californian, L.A Times, Leonel Martinez, Joel Stein, InTrade, Politics, 2008 Election
posted by montfred on Monday, June 30, 2008 at 06:32 AM
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13 comments from 7 users

1

posted by montfred on Jun 30, 2008 at 06:35 AM

I just popped over to check out the cool ticker over at InTrade, and noticed that the big mover is

Wesley Clark has climbed 4 points over the weekend to be the Democratic parties VP pick ($15), I guess that has something to do with

this

.

posted by NancyII on Jun 30, 2008 at 06:56 AM

Big mover is Wesley Clark?  Your last post was unclear.

posted by adampayne on Jun 30, 2008 at 07:11 AM

Gambling seems to be the national pastime these days. Not enough real work or opportunity to go around for too many people. Funny to see politicos become just the latest commodity. When you think about it, all the branding that gets done by the duopoly party system we have in place to stifle competition and creativity, a politician is a commodity these days.  Within their respective industrial speak we have allowed the political parties to become Coke and Pepsi as our choices of governance.  I can see why people gamble a lot these days, most of the citizenry has nothing left to lose. 

posted by ChicoEsquela on Jun 30, 2008 at 07:13 AM

Wes Clark proved what an idiot he has become (perhaps always was) with his comments about McCain.

If BO chooses him to shore up his military No-Cred then I welcome it.

Clark has always been an incompetent.

Just shows that being political in the military can sometimes work (read Schwarzkopf's book)

posted by TomW on Jun 30, 2008 at 07:40 AM

I love those markets but I forget about them every year until it's too late.  Intrade is running about the same as fivethirtyeight.com right now on the next President.  McCain runs up big margins in Appalachia which covers the fact that he's way behind in electoral votes.

If I were in it just for the gamble, I'd put some money on McCain and wait for the big September run-up in the market when all the newbies come in.  If McCain got up to 50%, time to sell.

posted by montfred on Jun 30, 2008 at 08:01 AM

Thanks for posting that link to fivethirtyeight.com Tom, somehow I lost my bookmark file, and couldn't remember that name, I really enjoyed visiting their site.  I was thinking the same thing about McCain being an interesting investment, but I hate the idea of betting on a proposition that would be disastrous for our country.

Adam, as always your comment is very interesting.  Thanks.  Joel Stein closed his column with "Of all the things I've ever gambled on... politics is the most fun,  Because the goal of all bets isn't to win money, but to make you feel smart.  This need is so great that people develop theories about slot machines."  But, every time I fill up the gas tank, I feel real stupid, and the few extra bucks, would be more of a help.

Nancy, Wes Cl arks stock, as a possible VP candidate has increased in value, more then the  other betting option at InTrader, which is one of the topics of the blog post. 

Chico, Clark was valedictorian of his class at West Point, and was awarded a Rhodes Scholarship to the University of Oxford, how did McCain do in his class?  I think Clark may be too old to be BO's VP pick, at 63.  He would almost be McCain's age during Obama's last year as our President.

posted by randomfactor on Jun 30, 2008 at 08:18 AM

Gee, Chico, IIRC Clark *WON* his war.  How's McBush doing on *HIS* war?   Behind on errors...

posted by ChicoEsquela on Jun 30, 2008 at 09:00 AM

*His*  "war" wasn't really a war at all.

Drop some bombs from 20K ft up -- even hit a Chinese Embassy in the process --

Didn't Clinton  "fire" Wesley BTW?

posted by randomfactor on Jun 30, 2008 at 09:35 AM

Guess it's not "really" a war unless you get a couple thousand Americans killed.

 

posted by Maggiepoo on Jun 30, 2008 at 09:40 AM

 Right On, General Clark. Do Not Back Down.

So, in short, General Clark respects John McCain's service, calls him a hero to millions, but notes that experience doesn't make him qualified to be Commander in Chief.

Now, VoteVets.org isn't getting into the presidential race, but I don't see what is so wrong about what General Clark said. And yet, immediately and unsurprisingly, the McCain campaign let loose with a response that expressed shock and dismay. Almost right after that, all of the media was up in arms about how 'wrong' this was. Pretty disappointingly, even progressive surrogates couldn't muster the strength to back up General Clark on TV.

Why?

This wasn't a swift boating, or any low politics. General Clark called McCain a hero to millions for his sacrifice. And, that's a pretty big statement coming from a man who, himself, left Vietnam on a stretcher. But, facts are facts:

• Senator McCain's service and experience, both as a POW and as a Senator apparently hasn't infused him with a dose of good judgment.

• Senator McCain's experience hasn't led him to realize that the war in Iraq and it's continuance has empowered and emboldened Iran, and destabilized the region.

• Senator McCain's experience hasn't caused him to recognize that we're losing ground in Afghanistan, and Osama bin Laden is still out there, plotting.

• Senator McCain's experience didn't lead him to support the 21st Century GI Bill -- he opposed it. It didn't even make him feel the need to get back to Washington to vote on this -- one of the most important veterans' bills this Congress. He twice skipped votes on the GI Bill, to fundraise.

• Senator McCain's experience didn't help him empathize with troops are overstretched and overdeployed, when he voted against the bipartisan Webb-Hagel "Dwell Time Amendment," which would have given troops as much time at home as in the field.

Senator McCain is running on his experience, saying it makes him ready to lead right away. By doing so, he is asking people to look at what that experience taught him. By looking at Senator McCain's positions and votes (or lack of them), it seems that experience has not given him the right judgment on important issues of our time. And, while we should all honor Senator McCain's service, that doesn't mean we should necessarily honor it by putting him in the White House to take up George W. Bush's third term.

So, General Clark is 100 percent absolutely right, and he should not back down. I'd hope that some of the so-called progressives on television back him up on this, and not get intimidated by the media and McCain campaign press releases. These are important times, and deserve a blunt and honest debate.

In some circles, that's just called 'straight talk.'

 

http://www.huffingtonpost.c...

 

posted by NancyII on Jun 30, 2008 at 10:03 AM

Huff....lol.  Here we go again.  Didn't you just post a tirade by soldiers stating how much they disrespected McCain for his "singing?"  Now you post one where the good general says things like 

"So, in short, General Clark respects John McCain's service, calls him a hero to millions, but notes that experience doesn't make him qualified to be Commander in Chief."  I don't see him actually slamming McCain for his inprisonment.  Sounds wishy washy to me.  Sounds like pure politics to me.

posted by montfred on Jun 30, 2008 at 11:06 AM

In his speech today at Indepence, MO.,  Obama said "no one should ever devalue that service, especially for the sake of a political campaign, and that goes for supporters of both sides."

"We must always express our profound gratitude for the service of our men and women in uniform. Period," he continued.

Just as Obama was finishing his speech, his campaign released a statement about Clark's remarks.

"As he's said many times before, Sen. Obama honors and respects Sen. McCain's service, and of course he rejects yesterday's statement by Gen. Clark," Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton said.

Meanwhile, McCain's campaign announced Monday it was launching a new Truth Squad to defend the Arizona senator's military record.

CNN, has more on this story.

posted by ChicoEsquela on Jun 30, 2008 at 11:21 AM
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