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motopoet - > MARK'S WORLD -> Now and Then
Now and Then

We are five years into the economic expansion and Americans are still waiting for their fair share with inflation swallowing pay raises. Businesses are hiring but forecasters fear the economy is about to stall. "If this is a recovery" the leader of the opposing political party said, "I can hardly wait for the recession".

A slam on the economic effects of the president Bush's policy decisions? Nope. Try a speech from Bob Dole in his presidential campaign in 1996. The economy was expanding at a good clip, just like it is today(no matter what the naysayers would have us believe). It proves that policy decisions on either side during an administration have little to do with economic growth cycles. The consumers drive economic growth and their politics seem to be little more than a blip on the economic outlook radar. The dotcom revolution powered the economy in the 90s, not the Clinton administration, and todays growth proves that, even though the public has little confidence in the president, they still have a great deal of confidence in their buying power. When the dotcommers took a dive in early 2000 so did the economy. It was too late to blame Clinton and too early to blame Bush. Another example of consumer strength being the key to a healthy economy.

Research shows that more Americans were pessimistic about the economy in 1996 than they are now, proving that the Bush blamers either have short memories or that they just never knew it to begin with. The question for many seems to be, now as then, "When do we get our piece of the pie"? Hmmm..I dunno, maybe when those people start taking the same risks the shareholders in the market take. If you want your share but are afraid to risk any of your money, what makes you think you deserve a share in how that money was made? I am generally content to let my investments, few as they may be, sit and make what money they can without stressing about it, and so far, that is working out for me. One exception was my stock in Union Pacific RR. The company gave all its employees 200 shares at $55 a share in 1997 with the option due in 2007. Their money people figured that was when the stock would be about double the original value. It sat sat still for three years then started to go up a little and in late 2005 was at $81 a share and dropping slowly. Everyone was paranoid about the economy, predicting the end of the world because Bush was making bad decisions. Being a somewhat impatient man(no cracks form you, Mom and Cassie), I let economic talk I knew I shouldn't listen to drag me down the road to the stock dump. I sold my shares at $79.91. Today(the price is shown on UP's Website homepage everyday)that stock is at $102.26. So much for listening to the wind blow.

The next time I hear a Bush bashing prophet of doom claim the economy is in bad shape, I think I'll send them a bill for the $4,470 I lost out on by acting like a panicky ewe who thinks the other guy really has a clue as to what is happening.

Posted in these Groups:
Topics: economy, Politics, News, stocks, market, LIFE
posted by motopoet on Thursday, February 15, 2007 at 08:03 PM
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18 comments from 7 users

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posted by bonuschris on Feb 15, 2007 at 08:32 PM

I agree, I always marvel at people that like to talk about how "they" did this or that. Or how Bush, Clinton or any other politician did this or that and completely changed the direction of the economy. Sure they have some effect, but overwhelmingly it is the average citizen that makes most things happen in this country.

I also believe that many successes can be attributed to being in the right place at the right time. That is not to say that skill and hard work don't pay off, they do. But alot of things just come down to the timing.

posted by adampayne on Feb 16, 2007 at 08:28 AM
Your a funny guy Motopoet. You work for a subsidized transportation cartel that has watched its union bend over every which way to save jobs and your pay over the the last twenty years. The concessions to management have been to reduce benefits and pay to new hires, just like grocery, auto makers and every other labor job in America. The guys that preceded you made great bank, and maybe you have been around long enough to earn good pay and benefits, but the employees hired today earn squat in comparison doing the same job. I guess you think that's okay, you've got yours.

You always fail to mention many parts of the historic economic equation to prop up your posts. To put in a comment from a Presidential hopeful, at that time, as somehow meaningful is disengenuous to say the least. The country was still  emerging from the effects of a lengthy recession by the the year 1996, a recession that started at the end of Reagan's  term of office.  The S&L  fiasco  due to de-regulation and the junk bonds schemes were still fresh in everybody's mind. Housing was still in the tank having hit new lows with the first Bush as President.  Check any economic chart or graph from the 1990s and see a steady rise in employment, appreciation and pay for the period after Clinton was elected. To say otherwise is simply false. 

Our economy today is very different from the one a short decade ago, and the only  real winners are the really big investment firms who seem to be swallowing all of America whole these days.  You and I  have no protection  from  these  few  individuals any longer. Our investments, small that they are, are at the mercy of what these huge players decide. You should consider yourself lucky to have made such a great profit on your initial investment, a lot people I know are still trying to recoup from the huge losses they suffered from 2000 to 2003. It makes it doubly hard to recover when your pay has been slashed in half due to consolidation, liquidation and outsourcing.   
posted by robbwillis on Feb 16, 2007 at 10:10 AM
I never credit or blame a president for the economy even though they feel compelled to take credit and dodge blame. 
posted by mattloch on Feb 16, 2007 at 11:00 AM
The economy may be doing "good" in overall terms, but the income gap between the highs and the lows (or the "haves" and the "have-nots", if you will) continues to widen. Nice to see you asking those without spare money to make investments, moto. Glad to see you understand the plight of the lower class. If you want to blame the President for something, perhaps we can start with the national debt. Cutting taxes while increasing defense spending (which is historically one of the worst "investments", ever), and leaving the next generation or two to pay for it all was brilliant. It even kept the economy going, somewhat. But the ever-increasing levels of consumer debt, combined with stagnating wages and a housing market that is about to collapse, spells doom for anyone not in the top 5% of wage earners. For someone that continually tells people to learn from history, you really should take your own advice.....
posted by robbwillis on Feb 16, 2007 at 11:28 AM
Remember the good ol' days, Matt, when running up a giant debt was only a federal policy and privilage? Now that Arnold has shown the inverse relationship between red ink and popularity, it's Katie Bar The door!  
posted by motopoet on Feb 17, 2007 at 01:48 AM

Union Pacific is NOT a subsidized corporation. AMTRAK is. The state pays for the intallation and equipment upgrades to Highway crossings at grade(and only then to state highways. Private crossings and spur tracks are payed for by the owners if they want such protection)z, but that's it. The rest of the capitalization of railroad projects is up to the company, which means, when you get down to brass tacks, the shareholders. My union hasn't saved one single job in all the time I have been here. We have lost dozens of jobs since 1994 just in the signal department and just here on what was known as the "San Joaquin Division"(Palmdale to Stockton). There were gangs HQ'd in Stockton, Atwater, Madera, Fresno, Tulare, Bakersfield, Tehachapi and Palmdale when I came to work here. Today only the Stockton, Atwater and Bakersfield gangs remain, and they are all travelling gangs. There were twenty three signal maintainers and six maintenance foremen in the same territory, today there are 14 maintainers and three maintenance foremen. My territory once went from Here to Cajon Pass and Daggett to Las Vegas. They realigned the division boundries in 2000 and now I only go from here to Merced. Don't talk to ME about mu union bending over for anything. Onb the contrary, they have been bending US over for a very long time.

Concessons to NEW hirees? I am now paying for a chunk of my benies too and the only new hirees who start at less than they used to are the ones in train service who start at something like 75% of what the prior contract did(this was about the late 90s)and that is only for a specific period of time. They jump right up with the old guys after whatever that period is. It's not my craft, so I don't know exact time periods, but rest assured, these guys will be pulling down 80-90K before long. The company even shortened up the north turnaround out of Bakersfield from Roseville to Fresno and the union had nothing to do with it.

You make it sound like I post on economics all the time. I don't. My comment wasn't aimed at a comment being meaningful, but rather, as a point that was as true then as it is today. the economy is not driven by administrations. Deal with it. Whatever happens during an administration, by either guy, is only going to have the economic effect the people give it. If Bush left office this very second, the economy would not be effected because people are happy right now. I spend a ton of money because I am confident in the power of my pay right now, just as I was in the late 90s. THAT is the point I was making.

I lost most of what my investments had earned in the 90s in 2000-2002, but it is all back. It sounds like the people you know have some bad investment plans. I are not lucky, I are smart! I learn from the past and look to the future. Investing in the present is foolish.

posted by adampayne on Feb 17, 2007 at 08:22 PM
No, UP is not subsidized today, but it certainly started and grew by being subsidized, however.  And as a small point, the Staggers Act from the Carter Administration has probably been as good a piece of legislation that has happened over the past 27 years. This allowed the class1 (7 big railroads) freight lines to carve up their territories without competition from one another to better compete against air, truck and water freight carriers.

But I'm incredulous that you are not a supporter of what the union has accomplished on your behalf and on behalf of others in this country. It is not always about today. Sometimes it is about yesterday and tomorrow. You work in an industry where union work is about all there is, save for the few management types. The labor force in your industry is one of the most highly compensated in America with an average wage of around $91,000 per year. Your retirement package is the envy of every American. You do not get Social Security. You put in 7.8% into retirement which is matched by your employer. Your employer also pays an additional 16.5% into your retirement. Anyone with Social Security would trade for your package in a heartbeat. You're in the rarified air for financial security that your union gained for you. You should never forget it and always be thankful that you have it.

When the other industries were totally deregulated their unions could not stop the bleeding, and now you see huge declines in both wages and benefits from your freight competitors in the air and inside those trucks. I know you have to contribute now to health benefits, but you can always strike, and you have the authority to do so and you have the ability to have secondary boycotters actually join the strike under the law without penalty. This is much more protection than the air traffic controllers were granted. 

I understand why you are confident in your pay today, and for tomorrow. Maybe you might want to see the documentary movie  Harlan County,  or the John Sayles film, Matewan to appreciate your good fortune today and how how hard it was to earn.
posted by NancyII on Feb 17, 2007 at 09:41 PM

I'm always incredulous that people are so quick to say "you can always strike."  When the cement workers struck back somewhere near 1980 a lot of people suffered in Tehachapi.  Do you have any idea how long it takes to recoup the lost wages with the kind of raise they end up with?  A good share never do. 
We weren't so much affected by it becuase my ex had a business on the side but most didn't have that kind of security.   When the grocery union struck a few years ago people lost homes, cars, and some even had to change jobs because they couldn't afford to stay unemployed.

Sure it's a chip you can use at the bargaining table but the people who toss that phrase out so easily probably have never been on the losing end of a strike.  AND...while the average joe is scrambling to feed his family on strike pay, how much money do you think the union president and his people are losing?

This is my first time being represented by a union and in the past, my wages and benefits were fair for the type of work I did without untion representation.  As far as I can tell, my union has done nothing for me.  As for the past?  Maybe they did...but I don't live in the past..and I'm against unions today.   Oh yeah..I wasn't asked if I wanted representation.  I was told I had to pay for it whether I actually joined the union or not so I pay a fee each month...no choice.    Before anyone asks the tired old question as to why I don't work elsewhere...there aren't all that many jobs where I can do what I do.

I'm curious Adam...since you are such a staunch defender of unions..do you belong to one?

posted by NancyII on Feb 17, 2007 at 09:50 PM

Adam..I'm also impressed that you took the time to research the figures you presented on RR workers since those are things you probably wouldn't know unless you actually worked for the RR.  You obviously didn't know about it not being subsidized when you wrote the original comment so it shows that research makes for a more valid response.

Since Moto is the resident expert on some RR pay scales he would be the one to know but I doubt all RR employees make that kind of money.  Engineers make in the neighborhood of 100K a year but I'd hazard a guess that the track dept doesn't take home 91K.  The only reason I know that is because I used to work at BW when Bakersfield was the turnaround between Southern CA and Sacramento and the rails stayed there.  I'd be interested in knowing where you got your figure and what position it was referring to.

posted by tonyh on Feb 17, 2007 at 10:14 PM

Hey Adam,

I'm also curious. What do YOU do personally, to help end the existing poverty and hoplessness that you so often cry and whine about? Rather than playing the "Blame Game", why don't you tell us all what you're currently doing as your fair share. Surely, as strongly as you feel about all of the economic inequality in the world, you're doing SOMETHING besides laying around and bitching about it. Right?

..........................................yea'... ...right.

posted by adampayne on Feb 17, 2007 at 10:58 PM
Tonyh, I must be getting under your skin. What a hoot! What I do and the various charities and colleges I support are really none of your business, but I'm sure you can guess a few. It's a shame to get so worked up in Tennessee over the blight and crime issues here in Bakersfield.

Nancy, I got my information from the Association of American Railroads website and a January 2007 report they published. Also, my best  friend has worked for first Southern Pacific and now Union Pacific for close to 36 years. My grandfather was an engineer with Union Pacific for more than 25 years.

Sorry to those I've offended for posting my peculiar views of the surroundings and growing economic crunch.  When you don't like it you certainly let me know.
posted by tonyh on Feb 17, 2007 at 11:21 PM

Like I thought, a cop out..........................Thanks Adam, what credibility you once had with me is now gone. It was there and it was yours to lose............

Giving money has little influence on the grand scheme. A very small percentage ever makes it to the actual point of effect. It's like energy, most of it is lost as heat. A very small percentage is actually available to do work.

If you want to make a difference, give your time. "Give a man a fish, you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime".

Are you familiar with:

Each one Teach one

Big Brothers

Boy Scouts..............I could name a few more.......

You really should try it sometime. I think it'd make you realize that "DOING", changes things while "WHINING" doesn't.  

 

posted by NancyII on Feb 18, 2007 at 02:06 AM

Two things...Did the site specify who made 91K per year?  The other was wondering if you belong to a union since you are a staunch defender?

As for letting you know if I (or anyone) disagrees with your views, peculiar or not...join the club.  As you well know..people on here  disagree with my views on a regular basis.  I think it's very rare that you, for instance,  ever agree with anything I say.  But that's ok..it gives us a reason to debate.  

posted by motopoet on Feb 18, 2007 at 03:16 PM

Who cares HOW the railroad started out? Deregulation happened before I went to work there. You're right adam..its NOT about today..it's about the future and NOT the past. Unions have outlived their usefulness. If you are a crappy employee, you shoud be fired, not rewarded with a better paying position or a raise just because someone else got one. There LAWS in place today to protect people from firing proceedures that the unios helped with all those years ago. You can take an employer to court if you were fired unfairly today and the burden of your termination will be on the employer. But, like I said, my union has done absolutely nothing for me since I have been here except raise my dues and support politics I disagree with.

An average wage of $91,000? NOW who's making things up? The most I have EVER made in a year in my career was last year at $76,000 and I worked a boatload of OT to make that. My wage is just under $26 an hour. Track forces make much less than I do with the communication, bridge and electrical depts.(a VERY small percentage of the workforce at the RR)at about the same wage as me.  The only department that makes anywhere near 90K are the trainmen and they have to, pretty much, live on the trains to make that much. I have no idea what the average wage as an agreement employee is, but I guarantee you it's nowhere near 91K!

My benie package is absolutely standard. It's nothing special compared to other corporations and workers who make a better wage than I. I pay as much into tier 1 RR retirement as I pay into Federal Taxes. My tier two is about two thirds of tier one and generally kicks in about july or august, depending on how much I have earned at that point. The company may contribute to it, but I contribte a HUGE amount to it. Yes, it will pay off when I retire, but that doesn't change the fact that I contribute heavily and that has nothing to do with the union.

Actaully, it is ILLEGAL foe us to strike. In the nations "Vital Industries" the government just won't allow it. Clinton was the last president to enforce that law even as big a union guy as he was. I have never said I wasn't fortunate to have a career in this industry, but please, don't make it out to be some, unattainable, pie in the sky job. Anyone can get on with the RR if they are willing to spend ten years or so being at the bottom of the barrel.

posted by motopoet on Feb 18, 2007 at 03:18 PM
OOPS..My wage is just under $27 an hour..But it still doesnt add up to 91K!
posted by adampayne on Feb 18, 2007 at 07:55 PM
 Click here for the report from the Association of American Railroads, which I believe is the Trade Association for the Railroad Industry. Most trade associations do statistical collection to provide information to both the public and interested private parties.

Tonyh, you've become very uncivil and pointed in your attacks on me personally here without any real knowledge of my background and present circumstances. Your comments I believe are unwarranted and without any justification. I have never attacked your character or your motives. I have argued against your stated opinions with facts and my own observations regarding  topics on these blogs. To say I have no credibility with you regarding these blog posts does not bother me in the slightest, because I find most of what you have to say to be very redundant and without factual support.








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posted by NancyII on Feb 18, 2007 at 08:20 PM
Am I missing it?  I don't see where wages are mentioned.
posted by motopoet on Feb 18, 2007 at 08:21 PM
Well Adam..they are wrong! Plain and simple! The average TRAINMEN wages may be 91K, but I can GUARANTEE you that the other crafts are nowhere near that average. I'd say i'd do a local study by asking the guys here that I see all the time, but it wouldn't be an accurate representaion.
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