Ryan, those are some very scary numbers you toss out. Grim indeed.

Gary says now you say its a great time to buy? LOL. These real estate
> transaction basesd guys always say that. Also, affordability? Compared to
> wages we are not the 2nd most affordable! Very misleading!
> _________________________________________________ ___________________________
>
> From KBAK:
>
>
> Great time to buy a house
>
> It's a great time to buy, but not such a great time to sell.
>
> That sums up the slumping Bakersfield housing market.
>
> According to veteran appraiser Gary Crabtree, sales of existing and new
> homes dropped by nearly 50 per cent from over a year ago.
>
> Median home price in Bakersfield dipped slightly from February to March by
> just over 1 per cent.
>
> However, the National Association of Realtors reports sales of existing
> homes plunged nationwide in March by the largest amount in 18 years.
> Partially to blame is the problems in the subprime mortgage market.
>
> Despite the doom and gloom, Crabtree says Bakersfield remains the second
> most affordable housing market in the state.

Ryan -

Can the newspaper start printing the names of the NOD's each week? I think some public shame would go a long way in ending this specualtive mania. With all the realtors on the list, they would not be able to say "time to buy" when they are trying to do a short sale on their own properties.

 

BB - Please have knowledge before you post tripe.... I get the NOD, NOS and FSBO properties every Monday AM. I agree, I have seen a couple of local realtors on the list, but they are the expected group of players. Aside from the typicals, I haven't seen many "realtors" losing their properties to foreclosure. I have yet to figure out your motivation for your blog, your tripe, your negative comments against the realtors in town, but I'd love to find out....

Maybe I will....

If you do not have to sell, or buy, there is no point in doing so at this time. The numbers tell the tale of supplies at close to nine month inventory levels. Auctions have become a normal part of real estate business these past few months. We'll have to wait until this winter to fully see the impact of so many failed loans on properties. Home sales started to cool late summer of 2005 here in town, and my guess is that the worst is still to come for the next six to nine month period. This is because house prices were in the stratosphere at that point in time two years ago, and leveraged consumers who risked trading up, or getting in, probably were only able to get those subprime ARM loans. People who are buying most properties today in Bakersfield, unless they got a tremendous deal, will see their property values decline at least an additional 10% by the end of this year.

The only saving grace in this local property value plunge is that Bakersfield actually is part of California, although most of the time it is very hard to tell.  People from out of state may still be persuaded to come to this city, but within the state this place is a tough sell. The long commute days are coming to an end and our less expensive real estate coupled with ever increasing commuter costs won't sustain this significant segment of the population here any longer. The depressed wages for most people in this town put most houses out of reach already.

What is always the real indicator for any community is what types of businesses are occupying the commercial real estate. While Los Angeles, Sacramento and the Bay Area work on big multi-use centers for housing and retail, Bakersfield packs commercial properties with fast food chains, big-box discounters and rows and rows of medical offices for the locals. Ours is truly a sick economy here. The only real money left is all going to the sickness providers. This must be the reason WalMart recently announced it was going to get into the health care clinic business. How low can you afford to go?

If you bought your home for a HOME and not an investment, you neither gain nor lose.  If you place a value on that home as in "my home is now worth x amount of dollars", you're sadly mistaken.  Your house is worth what the market will bear...and no more.  You and your neighbors can place any price you want on that home (to sell) but you're only going to get what people are willing, or can, pay.

Preach it. 

I'm not losing any sleep over the Bakersfield bubble.  I bought it in 1989, and no longer owe a dime on it.  And that's because I bought it to be a home, not a way to make money.

Smart of you H4F.  You'll be fine while others around you are losing their shirts.

I'm in a similar situation, although I technically "bought" just over a year ago.  But...with so much of the national economy riding on the bubble, there isn't a one of us who's going to be immune from the side-effects of foreclosures.  

Anon-

If you don't understand, then you are not reading my blog!

Let me guess what you have to say "its a great time to buy!". Which you probably say everyday! How many people did you "help" buy a home with a POA or some other toxic mortgage? How many people did you advise to stretch their budget to buy a home because if they did not "they would be priced out forever" or "real estate prices only go up" or whatever bs line was used to keep this speculative mania going?

The music has stopped and I hope you have a chair!

 

 

I'm just glad I'm not one of those people that refi-ed to their full limit of what the house was worth.  I think that's where a lot of predator lendors came in...

We refi-ed to cover the new roof (needed) and partial new kitchen (needed and wanted), but it was what we could afford.  You don't ever pull out all your equity.....now there's hardly any left, but at least I'm not backwards in my loan, like I bet a lot of chuckleheads are.... they're the ones who didn't do their own homework on what they could afford.   Instead they listened to a mortgage broker or agent.

Anon-

The bottom line is, I (and many thousands of other bloggers) were RIGHT!  All members of the REIC (real estate industrial complex: realtors, builders, mortgage companies, appraisers, etc...) were WRONG.

So why would anyone believe what you have to say about the market going forward when your ilk was so wrong?

When the re-fi craze was in full swing, I was actually harassed by re-fi lenders.  Certified mail to get my attention.  Can you believe?

(Maybe our privacy is a little more intact than I thought.  If their information on me was up to date, they'd see there is no "fi" to "re-fi".)

WAS harassed?  We still get half-a-dozen calls a week, despite being on no-call.

Bubble Boy - First off, you didn't respond to my stating that  Realtors, etc.... are not heavily represented in the NOD list.

I am not a Realtor. Nor a lender. Nor a builder. Nor an appraiser. I didn't help anyone get into anything nor do I say now is a great time to buy....

I do think, however, that if someone is looking for a "home" (not an investment, however the two are somewhat synonymous), there are deals out there.

...my chair is quite comfy, thank you.

Also, Your REIC conspiracy theory is getting tired!

REIC is used only as an acronym, as a short way of covering all those in the commission chain. It means nothing nor does it relate to any conspiracy. None!

There are numerous Realtors (not just the obvious ones either) and investors and other REIC members. Several home builders have been on the list as well. Also, significant numbers of specuvestors....

Why are you so upset by what I am saying? I have been saying for two years this is what is going to happen. Now that it is happening I am suppose to shut up? Betty Byrom had a nice quote that she thinks this is only the beginning, go send her some emails? BTW I agree with her on this one!

 

Also, find one post where I mentioned this was a conspriacy?

One coment on the Betty B quote. Here is her quote in a recent Bakersfield Magazine article:

http://bakersfieldbubble.bl...

 

Here is here quote in today's newspaper:

"The last time we had something like this was in 1993, but it wasn't like this," said Betty Byrom, owner of People Realty, who has been in the real estate business for 31 years. "We're gonna have a lot more. It's gonna get worse before it gets better."

 

List of recent vistors to my "tired" blog:

fw05y.fanniemae.com (Fannie Mae) [Label IP Address] District Of Columbia, Washington, United States, 4 returning visits   azwp04-o.wellsfargo.com (Wells Fargo And Company) [Label IP Address] California, San Francisco, United States, 10 returning visits     chl179129.usc.edu (University Of Southern California) [Label IP Address] California, Los Angeles, United States, 3 returning visits   (Countrywide Home Loans) [Label IP Address] California, Simi Valley, United States, 48 returning visits   torout.firstam.com (First American Title Insurance Company Inc) [Label IP Address] California, Santa Ana, United States, 5 returning visits   mail.cbn.org (Christian Broadcasting Network Inc) [Label IP Address] Virginia, Virginia Beach, United States, 3 returning visits   (Google Inc) [Label IP Address] California, Mountain View, United States, 3 returning visits   nytgate05.nytimes.com (The New York Times) New Jersey, Bergenfield, United States, 2 returning visits

I think the best quotes on here are the ones that say a house should be a home!! Somewhere to come to after a crappy day at work and feel safe and relax. Homes are not to own for six months by someone who did not qualify to purchase from day one, then sell and make a quick profit and or let the bank foreclose and bring the whole neighborhood down.

I want to know when the insanity will stop. I just heard this week of a lender charging $15,000 in points on a loan with a perfect buyer why?? because the loan officer and broker are the most greedy people and the buyer found out by asking the correct questions. I hope the buyer turns them in to whoever they can!!!

Homebuyers should have seen this rapid appreciation which is way beyond the reach of working people. What do you expect from the market but go down, I am sure this was a result of price manipulations by realtors and others involved who made a killing  during the  rapid increase in housing market.
YOU HAVE NOT SEEN THE BOTTOM PRICE OF THIS YET!  WAIT FOR ANOTHER YEAR THEN YOU WILL KNOW!

Yes the homebuyer should have seen it coming. BUT a lot of the mortgage loan officers really need to go to jail they were greedy bottom feeders.

If you bought your home for a HOME and not an investment, you neither gain nor lose.

Actually, that's not true.

You're paying more in property taxes. And from the reports I'm reading, as housing values decline property taxes are not declining along with them.

The real shame is those who live in neighborhoods where prices have shot up, increasing their property taxes, but where there are also rising foreclosures (often not maintained becoming eyesores in nice areas with weeds or dead lawns), which you could argue are in affect lowering property values at the same time.

I WON'T LOSE ANY SLEEP OVER PEOPLE LOSING THEIR HOMES. THE TRUTH IS THEY'RE A LOT OF PEOPLE WHO BOUGHT HOMES WHO HAD NO BUSINESS OWNING ONE. THIS IS JUST A CORRECTION IN THE MARKET.

Nice work on the article, Ryan.  Glad to see the MSM picking up on this....

Funny, as I heard a radio ad this morning on KERN 1410 for the National Association of Realtors; it featured voices of "regular consumers" saying stuff like, "we compared the cost of renting vs buying, and it made sense to buy for the same price as renting", (poppycock: you can't buy a property ANYWHERE in California that offers mortgage payments anywhere as inexpensive as what you could rent the same house for).  They also said, "now is a GREAT time to buy, as interest rates are near historical lows" (not mentioning that we're seeing annual DEPRECIATION that's probably going to continue as the housing market unravels further), etc.  How can the NAR get away with this?  I suspect they're trying to present this as consumers' opinions, and that affords them some deniability for perpetuating lies and the usual urban legends of RE.

During the market mania, alot of people were allowed to enter the market simply because many of the traditional barriers had been removed.  For instance, the lack of affordable houses had been dealt with by throwing out the traditional lending requirements, e.g. down payment, an important component for the buyer to prove that they understood the concept of deferred gratification and had the ability to SAVE (novel concept there, eh, sound fiscal management?) was dismissed as "old-fashioned".  Also, creative loans (ARMs, etc) had increasingly been used to help support elevating prices, in essence allowing prices to drift higher and higher.  I've heard something like 80% of loans made last year WERE ARMs, a fact that SHOULD give everyone a good ol-fashioned scare!

Yes, while housing responds to simple supply (available inventory) and demand (interested buyers), there's also the factor of the demand side being pumped up by MONEY supplies, i.e. lenders willing to dispense $$$ to anyone who asks.  Buyers armed with more money chasing after smaller inventories means prices will be raising sky-high, as we saw.....

I remember the housing pundits a few years back saying how there were valid market forces driving this boom, e.g. a fundamental lack of housing in California.  Nonsense: the problem we STILL suffer from is a lack of AFFORDABLE housing in California!   We have PLENTY of housing: edid anyone ever stop to think what happens when people are competing with flippers for an asset, when flippers like Casey Serin snatch up 8 homes in 8 months (only to have them foreclose when the market turns)?  That's right: prices go up!

Now imagine if every fool was armed with a $500k loan to buy their slice of the American Dream: ever think how people might bid prices into the stratosphere, since hey, it's only funny money?  People forgot it was REAL $$$ they were bidding up, and that while leverage can be really cool on an appreciating asset, it's a biatch when it depreciates!

Now that the market has turned, we can see all the nonsense for what it was, driven by all of these would-be investors greedily grabbing whatever they could, hoping to squeeze everyone else out.  Now many are getting what they deserved (while the more cautious buyers had bailed out of the market, back in 2005-2006).  Warren Buffett said one of the reasons he's as wealthy is he is results from not getting TOO greedy, and he sells before the peak of the market.  There's considerable down-side to waiting too long, as some sellers are finding out right now...

Now every block in Bakersfield has vacant houses, some with "for sale" signs, and some with "for rent" signs.....  This is a good time to be a renter (see above), as prices on the rentals are quite negotiable as buyers desparately want to get someone in to help them pay mortgage on a declining asset.  If you DO rent, make sure to get locked into the place for a year-long lease, as you may not want the owner to try and sell out from under you after giving a month's notice!

<b>I WON'T LOSE ANY SLEEP OVER PEOPLE LOSING THEIR HOMES. THE TRUTH IS THEY'RE A LOT OF PEOPLE WHO BOUGHT HOMES WHO HAD NO BUSINESS OWNING ONE. THIS IS JUST A CORRECTION IN THE MARKET.</b>

The truth is there's alot of REIC members working on commission who put people into homes they KNEW they couldn't afford, just to get that fat commish....  Once the market started turning, the search for those who had to be "last ones holding the bag" only intensified....

I would think that this building boom has been feeding on itself too. A lot of the people buying homes are somehow associated with the building industry. The only other real industries in Kern county are farming and oil production. Farming mostly employs those that "do the work Americans won't do". Another way of saying they're low wage jobs. Oilfield wages have been almost stagnant for the last 10 years. Only the top tier management are getting rewarded by the high oil prices, with the rest of the profits going to Houston or wherever. It seems to me that the only other large source of income for people here is in the building industry. This could get ugly for everyone as it cascades through the economy.

Grp that's a good point and I hadn't thought of that.  The only relief they may get is when the values drop, it's my understanding that people can apply for a reassessment to get taxes lowered.

My real point is that if they didn't give into the feeding frenzy of refi's or kept any refi reasonable, they shouldn't suffer from the market..since they aren't IN the market.

I would think that this building boom has been feeding on itself too. A lot of the people buying homes are somehow associated with the building industry.  The only other real industries in Kern county are farming and oil production. Farming mostly employs those that "do the work Americans won't do".

That's true.  In fact, one of the possible "bright-spots" in the housing downturn is that many of the workers in home construction trades for the past few years have been illegal aliens (undocumented workers) who worked in the fields in year's past; the slow-down means that many are returning to field work.

Many of you probably remember the debacle in the Valley last year, when many growers couldn't find enough workers of ANY race who were willing to help harvest crops; fruit was left to rot on the trees, etc.  They may find more workers this year.

The dependence on undoc workers also partially explains why the housing downturn hasn't effected the Nation's unemployment figures: many of these people are working off the books, paid via sub-contractors, etc.  In that regard, the undoc worker is probably the canary in the coalmine, and their fate is a harbinger of things to come to others who won't be able to switch 'occupations' as easily.

This post is for Anon who attacked BakersfieldBubble:

First, there have in fact been many local realtors who have found their way on the NOD in the last few months. Whether you regard them as fly-by-nights or not, they are there.

Second, I have been reading his blog since it's inception. Why? I am also one of the people who recognized years ago what was happening with real estate and it was nice to be able to chat with like minded individuals. The fact is, if you sense any negative connotation in his words or mine, it is because we are somewhat negative. We have been watching our friends and family make horrible financial decisions the last couple of years and being backed up by BS from the NAR and similar trade groups and organizations not to mention their local realtor and mortgage broker. It has been frustrating and heartbreaking to say the least. Add to that, we have been watching these realtors and mortgage brokers getting rich off of them by breaking the law. Lastly, congress is already talking about taking my hard earned taxes and giving it to these consumers who made bad choices, again those choices backed up by BS from the NAR, realtors and mortgage brokers in the face of very CONVINCING evidence that in fact it WAS NOT a good time to buy or sell a house.

So excuse me if I or BakersfieldBubble are a little pissy about what has happened and are a little elated that finally justice just might be served.

I will leave you with this quote from the $40 plus million nation wide NAR ad campaign that ran just a few months back. "it is a great time to buy or sell a home!"

I love Realtors, they are honest and have tons of integrity and they get it all with your money and a few holes in the law. You will never find a Realtor who cannot get you a deal that you cannot afford, unless there is no commission , of course.

Excuse me! This is a serious issue and you'all are still giving Annonymous the floor? My thoughts are Mr or Ms Annonymous is all tough and has all the quick answers in hiding, but afraid to show his/her face because he/she knows if we knew who he/she was we'd never let it go.
See the money grubbers are actually ashamed of their greed and will try to come up with excuses and (LOL) facts to save their a**. But deep down in their soul they know they wouldn't want their son/daughter married to someone like them.
Annonymous, I believe these nice folks should delete all of your rants and excuses and not respond to your (already 6) retorts made while in hiding.
Be a man/woman and show your face.
Come out of the proverbial closet Annonymous or these posts of yours don't hold any water.
(Editor- please remove this post when all the other Annonymous posts are removed. Thanks)

I know, Murphyslaw, everybody and his brother was telling me that I should sell and "move up."

Good grief.  Right.  Sell at an inflated price just to buy a bigger place at a more inflated price.

(And quadruple my property tax along the way.)

(And start a life of mortgage payments again.  You've got to be kidding.)

 

Oilfield worker wages have been stagnant?? Bullcrap...

Don't worry your taxes may not go up but the fees will, check your garbage bill lately?

check your garbage bill lately

Just wait until you see your next water bill.

Murphyslaw wrote, "I just don't know what the kids are going to do about buying a home.  It's been pushed out of most reach with the prices going up so sharply. "

That's how I ended up here -- a mere mortal kid pushed forever out of the Los Angeles market.

And now the same has happened here.

Man I'm glad I'm not any younger.