http://people.bakersfield.com/home/Blog/Bakersfieldbubble/44577 Former housing bubble BEAR and the man (ME) whole predicted this financial mess says the following: I am officially calling a bottom in the local housing market and saying its a good time to buy a house, IF&nbsp;&nbsp;you can afford the payments (no more than 30% of monthly income),&nbsp;put down at least 10%, have good credit to afford a low FIXED&nbsp;RATE&nbsp;interest loan and have 6 months of cash reserves (to cushion the blow of the unexpected, job loss, medical bills, etc..). Will the house prices continue to drop...probably another 5-10%. But if you put down 10% you will be able to cushion the blow. Right now median house prices are less than 2.7 times median income..during the boom we were at 8.1 times, clearly&nbsp;unsustainable. Former housing bubble BEAR and the man (ME) whole predicted this financial mess says the following: I am officially calling a bottom in the local housing market and saying its a good time to buy a house, IF&nbsp;&nbsp;you can afford the payments (no more than 30% of monthly income),&nbsp;put down at least 10%, have good credit to afford a low FIXED&nbsp;RATE&nbsp;interest loan and have 6 months of cash reserves (to cushion the blow of the unexpected, job loss, medical bills, etc..). Will the house prices continue to drop...probably another 5-10%. But if you put down 10% you will be able to cushion the blow. Right now median house prices are less than 2.7 times median income..during the boom we were at 8.1 times, clearly&nbsp;unsustainable. en-us Wed, 06 May 2009 08:11:20 PDT <p>I hope you are right.</p> http://people.bakersfield.com/home/Blog/Bakersfieldbubble/44577/#c_398781 http://people.bakersfield.com/home/Blog/Bakersfieldbubble/44577/#c_398781 <p>I hope you are right.</p> <p>I suspect we haven't seen the bottom yet locally.&nbsp; But I'm not in the &quot;biz.&quot;</p> http://people.bakersfield.com/home/Blog/Bakersfieldbubble/44577/#c_398783 http://people.bakersfield.com/home/Blog/Bakersfieldbubble/44577/#c_398783 <p>I suspect we haven't seen the bottom yet locally.&nbsp; But I'm not in the &quot;biz.&quot;</p> <p>I will admit I dont see market prices going up. Also, anyone buying for appreciation will be very dissappointed. <br /> <br /> The other metric I look at is the rental equivalent...we are near 109 (115k median to 1050 rental)...we were near 275 during the peak.<br /> <br /> I will also agree that job losses will continue and I will also agree that there are 10+ years of &quot;paper lots&quot; ready to build on...both of these will put a lid on prices for a quite a while.</p> <p>One other thing I am looking at is price per square foot, has reverted back to its long-term trend line:<br /> <br /> <a href="http://www.kerndata.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=User.doShowAvgPriceHistory">http://www.kerndata.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=User.doShowAvgPriceHistory</a></p> http://people.bakersfield.com/home/Blog/Bakersfieldbubble/44577/#c_398786 http://people.bakersfield.com/home/Blog/Bakersfieldbubble/44577/#c_398786 <p>I will admit I dont see market prices going up. Also, anyone buying for appreciation will be very dissappointed. <br /> <br /> The other metric I look at is the rental equivalent...we are near 109 (115k median to 1050 rental)...we were near 275 during the peak.<br /> <br /> I will also agree that job losses will continue and I will also agree that there are 10+ years of &quot;paper lots&quot; ready to build on...both of these will put a lid on prices for a quite a while.</p> <p>One other thing I am looking at is price per square foot, has reverted back to its long-term trend line:<br /> <br /> <a href="http://www.kerndata.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=User.doShowAvgPriceHistory">http://www.kerndata.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=User.doShowAvgPriceHistory</a></p> <p>Hi BB,</p> <p>&nbsp;Thanks for the post. &nbsp;I noticed you left a new post on your BB blog. &nbsp;A lot of us have missed your insight and commentary.</p> <p>Please continue when you have the time to spare.&nbsp;</p> <p>My sincere thanks for your efforts.</p> <p>You always got it right.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Regards,</p> <p>Lone Ranger &nbsp;<strong><span style="font-size: small; "> ; )</span></strong></p> http://people.bakersfield.com/home/Blog/Bakersfieldbubble/44577/#c_398975 http://people.bakersfield.com/home/Blog/Bakersfieldbubble/44577/#c_398975 <p>Hi BB,</p> <p>&nbsp;Thanks for the post. &nbsp;I noticed you left a new post on your BB blog. &nbsp;A lot of us have missed your insight and commentary.</p> <p>Please continue when you have the time to spare.&nbsp;</p> <p>My sincere thanks for your efforts.</p> <p>You always got it right.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Regards,</p> <p>Lone Ranger &nbsp;<strong><span style="font-size: small; "> ; )</span></strong></p> <p>BB, you seem to be the local subject matter expert.&nbsp; Your predictions were way more reliable than what was on MSNBC in 2006/07.&nbsp; Kudos to you for knowing your trade (I'm assuming you're in real estate).</p> http://people.bakersfield.com/home/Blog/Bakersfieldbubble/44577/#c_398982 http://people.bakersfield.com/home/Blog/Bakersfieldbubble/44577/#c_398982 <p>BB, you seem to be the local subject matter expert.&nbsp; Your predictions were way more reliable than what was on MSNBC in 2006/07.&nbsp; Kudos to you for knowing your trade (I'm assuming you're in real estate).</p>