Is it time to get back in the market? - My view - casooner90's Blog - Bakersfield.com

Jun 1, 2009 at 09:06 PM : I have a wealthy...

I have a wealthy friend who is very political, and he took all of his money out of the stock market and started investing in art. Weird, I know. He figures that if the stock market rebounds, people will want to spend money on art.

My parents, who aren't very political, have decided to keep their money in the stock market. But they were raised poor, and they think that whatever they've got is pretty good.

I first decided to invest in stocks in the late 90's during the dotcom boom. I ended up getting hosed, and I've refused to invest ever since. I'm not going to let my financial future be decided by a bunch of CEOs who are actually just overpaid dolts who couldn't care less about the well-being of me or other investors. So I won't be investing in any enterprises unless they are being started by friends or family members AND if I believe in them.

Jun 2, 2009 at 06:06 AM : I&...

I'm not going to let my financial future be decided by a bunch of CEOs who are actually just overpaid dolts who couldn't care less about the well-being of me or other investors. - That explains your liberalism. An excuse to not save and hope for gov't bail out (from taxing those responsible 'dolts' that actully save)

How about a real response instead of this absent minded thought.

Jun 2, 2009 at 11:06 AM : Hi Casooner,...

Hi Casooner,

At the present time, I don’t have any buy and hold stocks, except for a little bit of stock in Apple, 20 whopping shares.....lol.

The manufacturing index continues to fall, and capital movement velocity is in scary territory.

Without some real new capital creation, I think stocks are just too risky as buy and hold. I personally see the recent gains as a product of money supply intervention by the government, and not from fundamental profit gains by corporations in general. Just a mini bubble, similar to the giant equity value bubble of 2003 to 2007.

I managed to make some nice returns since late 2006 by shorting the financials, and purchasing commodity options during the run up. I was too chicken to buy futures. My accountant performed the actual trades for me, through his broker affiliate. I trust him more than any broker.

Dumped all the commodities except gold in early August.

The commodity gains, and shorting gains from the financials were pretty much a sure thing, since the trends were solid and predictable at that time. Some good luck helped too.

Now, we are in an unsure time, with black swans lurking at every corner. Plus, I’m burned out on watching the markets so closely.

Right now, 75% of my savings is parked in a boring CD account, and the rest is physical gold.

I’ll stay in that position until I can see the trends more clearly.

I’m not rich by any measurment, but 2% from the bank long term just doesn’t cut it.

Jun 2, 2009 at 12:06 PM : Frankly, my CD was...

Frankly, my CD was getting 4.75% until I had to renew this year. That is better than the rates I achieved last quarter of '08 from my mutual funds and stocks. There is money to be made out there and lots of investors holding on to it due to the nervousness of the market. However, my returns in '09 have been pretty good at +8% so I'm trying to capitalize before we see another decline. Good news is that the overseas activity is on the rise so maybe we'll get a boost.

Jun 2, 2009 at 01:06 PM : OT, but Hummers will...

OT, but Hummers will now be a Chinese brand.

New! Improved! Smell that new-melamine smell!

Jun 2, 2009 at 06:06 PM : Hey Casooner, Nothing...

Hey Casooner,

Nothing wrong with an 8% return in this climate.

Jun 3, 2009 at 06:06 AM : I agree on the 8%, but...

I agree on the 8%, but dollar will deflate and cost of goods will be on the rise as we do compete in a global market. Another question is should I pull out of US market and rely more on overseas stuff? Some of my friends are leaning in that direction.

Random, what the heck is your comment? Did you feel obligated to post, but with no substances as usual?