Politics, anyone? - politicsanyone's Blog - Bakersfield.com

Will the 'economic tsunami' sweep away McCain?

There's an interesting story on Politico featuring Democratic strategists licking their chops over an Obama landslide scenario, based on Americans' negative feelings about President Bush and the economy.

It's not because of anything the Obama team has done — it's an external "tsunami" sweeping voters away from McCain.

One strategist says McCain blew his chance — he should have come out strong against the bailout plan, thereby linking Obama to Bush.

Anyway, it'll be interesting to see if McCain can turn the tide of the "tsunami" in the coming days and weeks.

Californian reporters grade the debate

A group of Californian newsroom staffers gathered around a TV after deadline. (We can't all make it by 6, so we go where the DVR can be put on pause until we're all there, along with the pizza, wings, beer and bingo cards.)

We decided that Joe Biden won the debate, but Sarah Palin put in a solid performance that stanched the bleeding, and she may even give the McCain campaign a small bounce in the polls. Both had moments. The rest of the thing was script.

We watched the CNN feed, which had a focus group graph running at the bottom. Biden's line for women got to the very top four or five times, but Palin couldn't drive it up. Aside from her winks and "Ya, knows" she often spoke woodenly into the camera.

Biden was more free-flowing, but that style resulted in a couple moments when he mispoke his attacks on McCain or fumbled sentences.

Among the strongest moments was Biden's tear-up near the end, where he simultaneously tugged heartstrings like the lead actor in a chick flick and made a stand for manhood.

"You had me at >sniffle< Joe."

Sarah Palin couldn't — or didn't want to — answer a question about her own Achilles' heel. She dove back into her oil barrel for that one. And at one point in the debate, according to ABC News, she put words in McCain's mouth he didn't want there. Oops.

But the news crew agreed that, in this highly controlled, well-scripted environment, she did much to repair the damage her image and McCain's campaign took after her bumbled meetings with Katie Couric.

Who won the debate?

Not only can you vote on the winner at our daily poll on the homepage, but you can discuss the debate here.

From published reports I've read this morning, Palin did a decent job allaying voter's fears that she's not a complete moron, while Biden actually connected with the voters by choking up about his time has a single dad.

Substance? Like most debates there was barely any.

"So how surprising was it, really, that neither candidate devolved into a Jerry Springer screaming fit or fell into a state of catatonia?" asked LA Times.

"Palin changed her image overnight," says Weekly Standard.

"Palin scored points but didn't win," says Newsweek.

"Attitude and image vs. facts and focus," says Baltimore Sun.

"Rivals shine, Palin a bit more brightly," says Boston Globe.

— Andrew Mockett

VP debate: More like a NASCAR race

Countdowns are running on the bottom of the 24-hour cable news networks and 3,000 media credentials have been submitted to cover tonight's vice-presidential debate.

This story from Politico.com explains the keen interest:

With all their potential for pitfalls and insta-classic moments, the pair has made the build up to the showdown, to take place here Thursday night at Washington University, feel more like a NASCAR race than a serious political forum: the audience may be tuning in as much in anticipation of cringe-inducing pile-ups as they are to watch the typical parry-and-thrust of debate.

Advertising the candidate, not the party

I noticed something in the Fran Florez and Danny Gilmore ads on TV.

Just by watching the ads, you’d never know which party each is in.

It’s ironic, because the reason there’s so much money involved is the partisan nature of the race. Democrats want to keep the seat as part of their march to the two-thirds majority; Republicans are trying to stop them.

Check out both their Web sites. Fran Florez admits being a Democrat only in some text near the bottom, where she admits that “she received the Woman of the Year award from the Democratic Central Committee of Kern County.” Danny Gilmore doesn’t mention his party at all.

The 30th District race is rated No. 1 by the California Target Book, a political guidebook. I took a look at the other six top races to see who’s willing to admit they belong to a party.

Here’s something else I noticed: When you put a candidate name and “Assembly” into Google, the site description that comes up does list the party in most cases, even when the site itself hides their affiliation.

• No. 2: AD-80, Democrat Manuel Perez vs. Republican Gary Jeandron
Manuel Perez’s site says Democrat right up top. Gary Jeandron doesn’t use the word Republican anywhere on the front page.

• No. 3: AD-78, Democrat Marty Block vs. Republican John McCann
Marty Block doesn’t use “Democrat” in his logo, but makes many references to his party in the text of his page. John McCann doesn’t use the word Republican anywhere on the front page

• No. 4: AD-15, Democrat Joan Buchanan vs. Republican Abram Wilson
Buchanan doesn’t mention belonging to a party. Abram Wilson says he’s “respected by Democrats & Republicans,” but won’t say which he is.

• No. 5: AD-26, Democrat John Eisenhut vs. Republican William Berryhill
John Eisenhut doesn’t say Democrat, and Bill Berryhill doesn’t say Republican

• No. 6: AD-10, Democrat Alyson Huber vs. Republican Jack Sieglock
Alyson Huber doesn’t say she’s a Democrat. Jack Sieglock makes his ideology clear, but doesn't use the R-word.

No. 7: AD-37, Democrat Ferial Masry vs. Republican Audra Strickland (incumbent)
Ferial Masry makes references to being a Democrat, but Audra Strickland doesn’t have a campaign site that I could find.

— James Geluso

Education, endorsements and geographical warfare

Former legislator and now state Superintendent of Public Instruction Jack O'Connell came to Bakersfield today to tout Fran Florez for the Assembly.

According to O'Connell's bio, he even once got both the Democratic and Republican nominations during an election.

But he's not being nonpartisan today. Instead, the Democrat was lending support to another Democrat.

Republican Danny Gilmore has made "career technical education" a mantra in his campaign, and Florez apparently wanted to respond. Both she and O'Connell used the phrase in their remarks today.

Neither Gilmore nor Florez have any direct education experience.

Gilmore, in his press release today, pointed to 35 educational endorsements he's picked up. He also tried to stake out territory as the Defender of the Valley. Both Gilmore and Wasco school board member Danny Rueda, in the release, said Central Valley education dollars have been routed to Los Angeles and San Francisco.

— James Geluso

Candidates pouring money into TV

So who are the political campaigns targeting with those now-ubiquitous TV ads?

News watchers, for sure. Fran Florez is also going for the law-and-order vote, apparently, buying ads during “Law and Order” and other crime dramas, as well as court shows. (Actually, do law-and-order voters watch Law and Order? I have no idea.)

KGET (NBC): Danny Gilmore bought ads, all in news time blocks.

Fran Florez bought the same, but also went for ads on “Law and Order: SVU,” “America’s Got Talent,” “Dateline” and “Saturday Night Live.”

KBAK (CBS): Gilmore has bought news slots, including “60 Minutes,” plus prime time slots. He bought undesignated spots, so he can pay for the average ranking, but he has no control over when they air.

Florez went for news, plus “The Price is Right,” “Oprah,” “Two and a Half Men” reruns, “David Letterman,” and “Cold Case” and “The Unit” on Sunday nights.

The Yes on Proposition 8 campaign is also buying up ad time in every block from 5 a.m. through the soaps ending at 3 p.m. And they’re going for prime time on Sunday, Tuesday and Thursday. Oh, and the big gun: Sunday night football.

KBFX (Fox): Gilmore’s got some news spots, plus some unspecified primetime slots.

Florez has ads during the afternoon court shows, plus “The Big Spin,” “Inside Edition” and the late reruns of “Seinfeld.”

Yes on 8 is also going for some news shows, plus “Terminator,” “Kitchen Nightmares” and “House.” Oh, and football.

KERO (ABC): Gilmore's going for news, plus Jeopardy and Wheel of Fortune.

Florez is targeting the news, "Regis and Kelly," "The View," "Ellen," and some game shows.

Yes on 8 is also targeting "The View," "Wife Swap" and "Super Nanny," the judge shows, college football.

Cable: Gilmore has purchased spots on A&E, CNBC, CNN, Disney, Fox News, CNN Headline News and History.

Florez is going for CNBC, CNN, Fox News, CNN Headline News, MSNBC, ESPN, Food Network, Fox Sports West, HGTV, Lifetime, TBS, TNT and USA.

Also, Planned Parenthood has bought some anti-Prop 4 commercials to air during the vice presidential candidates' debate on Thursday.

— James Geluso

Jim Costa candidate questionnaire

Name: Jim Costa, incumbent

Office sought: 20th Congressional District seat

Present home address: Fresno

E-mail address: congressmanjimcosta@mail.house.gov

Web site address: www.costaforcongress.com

Date and place of birth: 1952 in Fresno

Spouse's name: N/A

Number of children and ages: N/A

Current occupation/employer: Congressman, U.S. House of Representatives

List employment history (past 20 years):
Member, California State Legislature, 1978-2002
CEO, The Costa Group, 2002-2004

Professional licenses:

How long have you lived in the jurisdiction you seek election?
I am a lifelong resident of the 20th district. The Costa family has farmed in Fresno, Kings, and Tulare counties for over 100 years.

Political offices you have held:
Member, California Assembly, 1978-1994
Member, California State Senate, 1994-2002

Political offices you have sought: (dates, locations, outcomes):
Elected to California Assembly in 1978
Elected to State Senate in 1994
Elected to US Congress in 2004

Board memberships/Community activities:
Member, Board of Directors, Fresno-Madera Agency on Aging
Member, Board of Directors, Fresno Historical Society
Member, Board of Directors, San Joaquin River Parkway
Member, FACT Steering Committee, Fresno County Farm Bureau
Kenneth L. Maddy Professor, Fresno State
Past President, National Conference of State Legislators

Education:
Graduate, San Joaquin Memorial High School, Fresno 1970
Graduate, Fresno State, 1974, B.A. Political Science

Military: None

Describe anything you have published, invented, discovered, painted, etc., and events or hobbies that would be interesting for a biographical story:
I enjoy reading American and World history, hiking, horseback riding and sailing.

Campaign manager (if not yourself): Larry Sheingold

State or Federal campaign ID number: C00391029

Campaign consultant: Larry Sheingold

List all criminal convictions or pleas in this county and others (Include year):

List all civil court judgments against you or any business you have had a financial interest in (partnership, sole proprietor, corporation) in this county and others (include year): None

Kern congressmen split on failed bailout bill

Just learned Republican Kevin McCarthy voted against the failed bailout bill while Democrat Jim Costa voted for it.

"Unfortunately, the Wall Street bailout proposal the House voted on today went too far to reward bad decisions on Wall Street at the expense of America’s middle class and the freedom of America’s markets," McCarthy said in a statement.

"I continue to support working out an improved solution strengthening our financial markets that is paid for by Wall Street, not American taxpayers.”

You can keep up to date on the vote here.

What do you think of the bill and how our lawmakers voted? What should happen next?

John McCain's next stunt ...

After picking relative unknown Sarah Palin and suspending his campaign for a while, Slate.com has predicted the next 10 John McCain campaign stunts.

Here's a taste:

1. Returns to Vietnam and jails himself.

Here's the full list.